2012 NFL Draft: Why Andrew Luck Will Be the Biggest Bust of the Past 10 Years

Austin QuickContributor IIIFebruary 2, 2012

GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 02:  Andrew Luck #12 of the Stanford Cardinal walks off of the field after Stanford lost 41-38 in overtime against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on January 2, 2012 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Yes I said it, nobody else wants to, so I will say it again for them.

Andrew Luck will be the biggest bust in the past 10 years.

I am not one to make unfounded claims for shock value, instead I will give you solid, logical reasoning as to why Andrew Luck will struggle in the NFL.

Many draft experts have pegged Luck as the greatest quarterback prospect in the draft since John Elway came out of the very same Stanford Cardinal's program. Some note his NFL size, some point to his great college statistics, and others love the fact that he played in a pro-style offense but there are some major questions about Luck that are being overlooked.

First off, Luck played in the Pac-12. Now, the Pac-12 is a quality conference, but their trademark most certainly isn't solid defensive play. Yes, Luck's stats are excellent, but he did play poor defenses such as Washington, Washington State and Colorado.

On top of that, the Pac-12 conference has produced many more flops at quarterback than NFL stars. The list includes Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Matt Leinart and Kellen Clemens. The only largely successful quarterback that the Pac-12 has produced in recent years would be Aaron Rodgers. There's obviously a trend there, and it's definitely one that has to worry some Colts fans.

The state of the Colts franchise will also lead to Luck's demise. Reggie Wayne will likely leave in free agency and is definitely not certain that Pierre Garcon, Jacob Tamme or Anthony Gonzales will remain in a Colts uniform. That leaves Luck with Austin Collie and Dallas Clark, to go along with a notoriously bad running game and poor line play. Any quarterback in the league (excluding Peyton Manning) would struggle with this offensive unit.


Another part of Luck's game we haven't seen fully is his ability to make 'big-time NFL throws" as Phil Simms pointed out. He has great accuracy, but will he be able to put the ball on the money on a deep out with a solid NFL cornerback out there?

I can't say with 100 percent certainty that he can. The offense that was run at Stanford was kind to Luck. They established the run, gave him time in the pocket and he generally threw to wide-open receivers. Windows will be tighter, and that run game he had most certainly won't be there in Indy.

Lastly, there's not a single player in the NCAA who benefited more from the offensive players than Andrew Luck. He didn't have a game-changing skill player, but what he did have was a line that includes two first-round draft products. That's essentially unheard of—ask anyone in the NFL.

If you give any NFL quarterback time to sit back in the pocket like Luck did at Stanford, they would pick a college defense apart. Unfortunately, Luck won't have that opportunity in Indy who refused to protect Peyton Manning when he was there.

The situation that Luck is falling into isn't beneficial for his NFL career. He has no weapons; he has no line. The way the NFL is evolving and becoming passer friendly, quarterbacks are expected to put the team on their back and carry a franchise to success.

Luck doesn't have a signature win, he doesn't have the "it" factor that Peyton, or Brady, have and he most certainly won't have the same level of success.