Mayweather vs. Cotto: Why Cotto Will Pull off the Upset

Ralph Longo@ IIIApril 30, 2012

HOLLYWOOD, CA - MARCH 01:  Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto pose at a press conference to promote their upcoming fight on May 5 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas at Grauman's Chinese Theatre on March 1, 2012 in Hollywood, California.  (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
Jeff Gross/Getty Images

As we all know, this Saturday brings the biggest boxing weekend of the year, with Floyd Mayweather taking on Miguel Cotto at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for the Light Middleweight Championship. It should be a good night of fights, as Canelo Alvarez takes on Shane Mosley on the undercard as well. 

In this fight, you have the consummate boxer in Floyd Mayweather, whose defense is one of the best in history. Few boxers have been able to cleanly connect on Mayweather, and when he has been tagged he's shown a solid chin. 

In Cotto, you have a boxer-puncher with good power. Cotto is very physically strong, and can punch to the body like few others in the sport can. These body shots will be key in order for him to pull off the upset.

I'm in the minority, but I've already gone on record as saying this, so I'll stick to my pick. I'm taking Cotto to pull off the big upset come May 5th.

The first reason I think this is that Cotto will have a big size-and-strength advantage come the night of the fight. They'll weigh in at a similar weight, but Cotto will rehydrate to about 168 pounds, while Mayweather will weigh only about 154 on the night of the fight.

Those 15 pounds or so could prove crucial. Cotto showed in his fight with Antonio Margarito this past December that he can use leverage to push his opponent around the ring and place him where he wants him. And Margarito is much stronger than Floyd.

So, yes, I am picking Cotto to win in a close decision.  But, here's why Floyd should win this fight. He's the more-technical boxer, has better defense and better hand and foot speed. He has a strong chin and, as always, he'll be in excellent physical condition. 

Floyd certainly has most of the advantages, so don't be surprised to see him win a somewhat wide decision come fight night. 

I think the big key in this fight is whether or not Cotto can jump out to an early lead. If he can win three of the first four rounds, or even two, he'll be confident and can parlay that into success through the rest of the fight. 

If Cotto falls behind early, it's going to be a long night for the Puerto Rican star. 

On the undercard, you have 21 year old champ Saul "Canelo" Alvarez against "Sugar" Shane Mosley. In this matchup, you have the classic young bull against the aging veteran fighter. 

Some people are saying that perhaps, like most former champions, Mosley has one last great performance in him. 

Well, he doesn't. Alvarez should dominate and stop Mosley inside the distance. It may be competitive for a couple rounds, but Alvarez is simply too young, too powerful, and too strong. 

And if Canelo can stop Mosley, who has never been knocked out, it would be quite a feat for the young Mexican. 

Lets hope that this weekend brings some exciting action. 


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