NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

James Brown@@chasingballgameSenior Analyst IJuly 8, 2012

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 27:   Steve Johnson #13 of the Buffalo Bills grabs his leg while celebrating after scoring a touchdown during a game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on November 27, 2011 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Bills were penalized 15 yards for excessive celebration as Johnson was apparently mimicking the self-inflicted gunshot wound of Plaxico Burress #17 of the New York Jets.  (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)
Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

When betting on the NFL, it is all about value.

The NFL lines for Week 1 were released early enough for sharp sports bettors to scramble to take advantage of the lines they believed were out of whack.

For me, one of those lines can be found in the Week 1 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets.

The Jets were tagged as four-point favorites by Cantor Gaming when the line was opened, and it can still be found at several online books with that original number. In my estimation, the line is way off, and according to my numbers, the line should be closer to New York (-1).

The Jets will have a tough start to the regular season.

They start the season with a new look on offense, as newly acquired quarterback Tim Tebow will see some reps in different sets. This change has caused enough confusion to prompt left guard Matt Slauson to say that both offenses look like "two different teams."

To make matters worse, the Jets will be showcasing a new defense. Head coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine are implementing a new 4-3 defense for this season. In the long run, this move could benefit the Jets, but it will be difficult to start the season. This move will put several players into different positions and roles that they will have to adjust to.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming into his own as a worthy quarterback in the NFL, and he has a wide array of weaponry to turn to. Stevie Johnson is back at wide receiver, and the Bills have a stable of solid backs, led by the always underrated Fred Jackson. It may be a surprising stat, but Jackson has forced more missed tackles than any other back in the league.

The Bills started fast out of the gate a year ago, winning three straight, and they will display that same urgency this year. They enter this game with double revenge from two losses a year ago and a better grasp on both sides of the ball.

That is a recipe for a close game, and therefore taking the points is the way to go; in fact, I would not be surprised if the Jets lose outright in the first game of the season.


Pick Prediction: Buffalo (+4)

James Brown is a B/R featured columnist and can be followed on Twitter. Feel free to contact James at

He also is a contributor at Bookie Blitz, a sports picks website.