NCAA Tournament is always exciting and we all know why we call it March Madness. Everybody is always looking for the next Davidson or Kent State that can upset and make it deep into the tournament.
Winning your bracket though is not about picking the big upsets instead its about picking the most winners overall.
Predicting a bunch of upsets although fun does not usually lead to winning your pool. Handicapper Craig Trapp is here today to give you trends for seed since 1985 and overall records that will help you figure out this years March Madness.
Also check out Craig's tips to winning bets for conference tournaments!!
No. 1 Seeds- Of course no No. 1 seed has ever lost in the first round but even better the overall record for this seed is an amazing (376-104) 78 percent win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.
No. 2 Seeds- Only four No. 2 seeds have lost in first round and none since 2001. Overall record (267-114) 70 percent win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.
No. 3 Seeds- First round upsets have occured 15 times since 1985. Overall Record (199-116) 63 percent win percentage overall in the NCAA tournament.
No. 4 Seeds- Upsets for first round have happened 21 times in the last 24 years. Overall NCAA tournament record (161-118) 57 percent win percentage.
No. 5 Seeds- Everybody knows that this No. 12 seeds always seem to upset No. 5 seeds. In fact 31 times since 1985 they have upset the favorite in the first round. Overall NCAA tournament record (141-121) 53 percent win percentage overall.
No. 6 Seeds- Only 30 out of 96 times have the No. 6 been upset since 1985! Overall record (154-118) 56 percent win perecentage overall!
No. 7 Seeds- Not a big upset when they lose the first round surpsingly they have a good win perecentage in the first round since 1985 going 60-36. Overall record (105-120) 46 percent win percentage overall.
No. 8 Seeds- Many don't consider this first round loss an upset because these teams are always so similar. Since 1985 overall record 44-52. Overall record is (88-119) 42 percent win percentage overall.
Other interesting trends: Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney. No. 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only five times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis to win the title.
Note that two No. 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two No. 1 seeds in the title game is uncommon, the feat has been achieved in three of the last four years.
Since 1985 No. 1 seeds have won 14 championships, No. 2 seeds have won four, No. 3 seeds have won three, and No. 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.
From these trends Craig's advice is as follows. When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all No.1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since three and four seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it's a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well.
Chances are you'll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone. Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round.
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