Breeders' Cup 2012: Analysis and Preview of the $3 Million Turf

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent INovember 2, 2012

Point of Entry is the horse to beat!
Point of Entry is the horse to beat!Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

I really love the talent in the main turf race on Saturday at Santa Anita, but I just don't see Point of Entry losing.

The current morning line odds are 3-1 per ESPN, which would be an absolute gift if they stayed that way tomorrow.

Point of Entry is coming off three consecutive Grade One victories and in undefeated in four career starts at 12 furlongs. In his previous start on September 9, Point of Entry cruised home over a yielding turf at Belmont and won for the sixth time in nine career turf starts. John Velazquez will ride for Claude McGaughey, and this four-year-old colt should be right off the lead and first to the wire.

I think Kindergarden Kid is a great value, especially if the five-year-old gelding's odds increase from ESPN's current 30-1 setting . In his last three starts, all of which have been at a mile and a half, this Peter Miller-trained horse has been very solid. I won't be shocked to see him make one late move and finish in the top three.

I'm going to use Optimizer in all my exotic wagering, even though I'm concerned that 12 furlongs might be a little more than he'd like. With just one race at the distance—in which he lost by over 30 lengths—I think Optimizer is in good form, as his recent win on September 22 shows. I know he'll be on the lead early and I think he'll be the horse to catch as they turn for home.

I'm also going to use Trailblazer, the Japan-based five-year-old, who closed beautifully on October 6 at Santa Anita. I don't see any reason why this horse won't like the added distance today.

The key to the race could be Little Mike, who could alter the race by running early with Optimizer. In his last race, the Dale Romans-trained five-year-old clearly didn't take to the yielding turf at Belmont and lost by almost 30 lengths. I love the October 20 work over the Santa Anita turf of 47.3 for four furlongs. I expect Ramon Dominguez to give him a super ride.

In the end, Point of Entry will be first to move and hold off a fast closing Kindergarden Ki and Trailblazer in 2:29.3. I'm going to use all three horses in my pick three wagering and trifecta wagering.