Breeders' Cup 2012: Analysis and Preview of the $2 Million Turf Mile

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent INovember 2, 2012

Wise Dan will challenge the track record in the Turf Mile
Wise Dan will challenge the track record in the Turf MileJacob de Golish/Getty Images

Animal Kingdom is a wonderful horse. I would love to pick him, but I'm not even sure he'll finish in the top 3 in this fantastic race.

Animal Kingdom is very talented four-year-old that is trained by Graham Motion. In two turf starts, he has a win and a second place finish. I really like his last race, where he stayed much closer to the pace and easily won over the turf at Gulfstream Park on February 18. However, he hasn't run since and I'm unsure that he's fit enough to win against this elite field. I'll be using him in my exotic wagering, but I can't pick him to win.

Obviously is undefeated at a mile and should be on the lead from the start of the race. In his last race, this four-year-old gelding wired the field in 1:31.4 at Santa Anita. I really love how well this horse has run in his last three, all wins, but I'm going to pick against this pace setter.

Excelebration is the Ireland based horse that is trained by Aidan O'Brien. Eight wins in 14 career starts for this four-year-old colt, but I'm also going to pick against him. This talented horse also prefers the lead, and I cannot imagine anything short of a massive speed battle with Obviously.

Mr. Commons is still a dangerous horse, but he's winless in his last five starts, including multiple losses to Obviously. I love the October 22 work of 1:13 for six furlongs, and I think this horse will run well, but I won't be picking him to win.

Wise Dan is the best turf horse on the planet and I see no reason to pick against him. Six wins in seven career starts at eight furlongs, including his last three. Like in his race last, I can envision jockey John Velazquez making a bold sweeping move to take control of the race and winning. 9-5 is the morning line per ESPN and don't feel cheated—that is a sensational price to get on the best horse in any race today.

Wise Dan will charge past Obviously and Excelebration at the top of the stretch and hold off both Mr. Commons and Animal Kingdom in 1:31.89.