Which 1-Loss Team Has Best Chance at the BCS Title Game?

Jeff Bell@@JrayBellCorrespondent INovember 4, 2012

QB Aaron Murray
QB Aaron MurrayScott Cunningham/Getty Images

The release of the BCS standings this week likely brought joy to Eugene, sadness to South Bend and plenty of hope to Athens, GA, where fans of the Bulldogs are beginning to smell a very special season.

Georgia moved up one spot to No. 5, and should any of the top four undefeated teams falter, the Bulldogs will be ready to take their place.

Last season LSU, Stanford and Oklahoma State all entered November without a loss. After the Cardinal fell to the Ducks, people began preparing for a Cowboys vs. Tigers matchup. But craziness ensued, as it usually does, and an Alabama team that already had a loss on the year found their way to the title game.

It makes it easy for argument's sake when two teams finish undefeated, and that very well could be the case this year. But November rarely follows the same script as September and October.

Georgia has the best chance of making the BCS title game out of the one-loss teams because of their remaining schedule, and because of their victory over Florida.

That win put the Bulldogs in the driver's seat for the SEC East as they now own the tiebreaker over the Gators. South Carolina initially appeared to be the team to beat after walloping Georgia, but subsequent losses to LSU and Florida took them right out of the picture.

With just one divisional game against Auburn remaining, Georgia will likely find itself in the SEC championship. But in order to get to the BCS title game, they'll have to win their non-conference games as well.


Fortunately for Georgia, those games include Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. You can already pencil in a W against Georgia Southern (no disrespect to the Eagles), and the game against Tech will be played in Athens.

There isn't anybody with an easier three games to close out the season.

Assuming Georgia takes care of business, they'll likely face Alabama in the SEC championship game. Beating them is no easy task, but if Georgia proves to be up to it, they'll have the strongest resume of any one-loss team by far.

So if you're keeping tally on who Georgia needs to lose, you're looking at four teams. They'll get their chance against one of them. What it comes down to is two out of the other three teams losing.

Notre Dame has an extremely difficult game against USC at the end of the season. Kansas State has several tough tests against TCU, Baylor and Texas. And finally, Oregon has two potential stumbling blocks at home against Stanford and on the road against Oregon State.

Despite how well these three teams are playing, the odds are high that one of them is going to lose. There's probably about a 50-50 chance that two of them will drop a game. Remember that Oregon will likely have an extra game in the Pac-12 championship as well. Not sure they'd enjoy facing Matt Barkley and the Trojans' passing attack a second time.

If I'm a Georgia fan, I'm circling Notre Dame's game at USC, Oregon's matchup with Oregon State and Kansas State's games against TCU and Texas.

Obviously, a lot needs to fall in Georgia's favor for them to be playing in Miami on January 7th. But if they can make their way through the rest of their own schedule, there's a decent chance they'll get their opportunity

And after getting blown out at South Carolina, that has to be more than any Georgia fan could've hoped for right?