Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert was 7-of-19 passing for 53 yards and a touchdown against the Houston Texans defense in Week 2. He had Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield and the Jaguars were at home. Week 11 does not look like a great outing for the Jaguars offense.
In relief duty for MJD, running back Rashad Jennings has seen his carries decrease in each of the last three games. Against the Indianapolis Colts—a matchup that had been favorable for running backs earlier this season—Jennings totaled just 27 yards on 11 carries with no catches and zero touchdowns.
Cecil Shorts has put up 100 yards, a touchdown or both in three of his last four games, which should be just enough to draw the attention of Houston cornerback Johnathan Joseph.
That’s not good for his fantasy prospects.
Justin Blackmon or Laurent Robinson could make a couple of plays for the Jaguars, but because they have a combined one touchdown this season, neither should be trusted in Week 11. The Houston defense should have another big fantasy day on Sunday.
So should Arian Foster.
In Week 2, the Jaguars allowed Texans running backs to total 279 yards and three touchdowns on 59 touches en route to a 27-7 loss. Detroit Lions running back Mikel Leshoure scored three rushing touchdowns on Jacksonville in the first quarter of Week 9.
Justin Forsett is the man behind Foster on the depth chart this week. He could see some carries if this game plays out similarly to the Week 2 matchup between Houston and Jacksonville. Ben Tate took 12 carries and scored two touchdowns in that game. Forsett got six (for 35 yards) as the third RB that game.
Jacksonville’s habit of giving up yardage and touchdowns to running backs limits the fantasy upside of the Texans’ passing game. The Jaguars are one of two teams (Green Bay Packers) to disallow Matt Schaub from throwing for a touchdown this year.
Jacksonville has also yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end, making fantasy surprise Owen Daniels a potential disappointment in Week 11 if he plays.
The Jaguars have allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers this season, but they didn’t give one up to Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne or either of their teammates in the last two weeks. Andre Johnson caught just three passes for 21 yards against Jacksonville in Week 2—his second-lowest yardage output in 2012.
Jacksonville’s D/ST should still be avoided in Week 11. Houston has forced opposing defenses into negative ESPN standard-scoring fantasy performances three times.
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