The No. 4 Florida Gators and the No. 10 Florida State Seminoles are both 10-1 and playing each other in their final regular season game this Saturday in Tallahassee, Florida.
Florida will not be playing in the SEC Championship, but Florida State will be playing for the ACC Championship in two weeks.
Several news outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel, announced today that because Miami has self-imposed a second-year ban of postseason play, Florida State will play Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship.
The BCS Championship game is still in play for both Florida and Florida State, but both of these teams are going to need a lot of help to get in.
For Florida to get in, USC has to beat No. 1 Notre Dame. That's a tall order. No. 2 Alabama also has to beat No. 3 Georgia in the SEC Championship game. That scenario, coupled with a Florida win over Florida State, would bump up Alabama to No. 1 and most likely, Florida to No. 2.
Yep, it could happen again with an all-SEC BCS Championship game.
For Florida State to get in, it first has to beat Florida. It too would need USC to beat Notre Dame and Alabama to beat Georgia, along with No. 5 Oregon to lose to Oregon State this Saturday (or lose in the Pac-12 Championship game).
Three two-loss teams are currently ranked ahead of the Seminoles: No. 7 LSU and No. 8 Stanford and No. 9 Texas A&M. A win over Florida would give Florida State an 11-1 record and a win against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship could catapult the 12-1 Seminoles over those two-loss teams.
No. 6 Kansas State is still a hurdle for Florida State, but the Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game. Florida State's 12-1 record may get more respect from the pollsters than the Wildcats' presumed 11-1 record, but a Kansas State loss to Texas on December 1 most likely resolves that obstacle for Florida State.
Two intangibles, however, may still stop Florida State's improbable path to the BCS Championship.
If Alabama beats Georgia in a very tightly contested SEC Championship game, Georgia could remain ranked ahead of Florida State despite its two losses.
Why? Because Florida State played two FCS teams this season.
Per the NCAA's official website, "To become bowl eligible a team must have a winning record, which may include one win against a FCS opponent, or win their conference and the team must not be on postseason probation."
We can probably count on a few voters forgetting about those two FCS opponents on the Seminoles' schedule if Florida State beats Florida. However, it's inconceivable for that to get completely overlooked, especially if Georgia loses a squeaker to Alabama.
This game is basically a BCS Championship playoff game. It's a long shot for Florida to get in but an even longer shot for Florida State.
Then again, with the way things have transpired in the last few weeks, why should anything shock us anymore in college football?
Fasten your seat belts.
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