NFL Rookie of the Year 2012: Breaking Down Each Contender's Chances of Winning

Rob Goldberg@TheRobGoldbergFeatured ColumnistDecember 28, 2012

KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 23:  Quarterback Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts in action during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on December 23, 2012 in Kansas City, Missouri.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images

NFL fans have been treated this season to one of the best rookie classes in history. Unfortunately, that means that only one player will be able to leave with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. 

This year featured a number of first-year players not only making an impact on their teams, but being leaders on playoff-bound squads. Unlike most years, this alone is not enough to win this prestigious award.

It will take impressive stats, as well as being an impactful part of a good team. With that in mind, here are the top contenders for Offensive Rookie of the Year with the likelihood that the player eventually wins.


Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins: Four percent

Although Alfred Morris has very little chance of winning, he certainly deserves a mention as the most surprising rookie in the NFL.

The running back was a sixth-round pick for the Redskins and opened the year officially third on the depth chart. 

However, he has been incredibly efficient this year and is currently No. 4 in the NFL in rushing yards and has 10 touchdowns. 

Morris has been completely overshadowed by Robert Griffin III (and rightfully so), but this type of performance would have be good enough to win the award in most years if not for the tough competition.


Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Six percent

Through Week 11, Doug Martin was a legitimate contender for this award. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in the playoff hunt and the running back was dominating the league.

Unfortunately, his team fell off and his production slowed down a little bit.

Still, Martin has been impressive both on the ground and through the air this season, totaling 1,766 yards from scrimmage. He also had one dominant game against the Oakland Raiders where he rushed for 251 yards and four touchdowns. 

He made a lot of fantasy football owners happy this season, but it will not be enough to compete for this award.


Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks: 20 percent

Few expected this from a third-round pick, but Russell Wilson has been one of the most exciting players to watch in the NFL.

He has led the Seahawks to the playoffs, thanks mostly to an impressive stretch at the end of the year. In the last three weeks, Seattle has outscored opponents 150-30. 

Thanks to Wilson's 121.5 home quarterback rating, the Seahawks have been unstoppable at CenturyLink Field and have posted a 7-0 record.

Wilson does not quite have the numbers to compete with others on this list, but the Seahawks should be happy to know that he should be the face of the franchise for a long time.


Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: 30 percent

If you put Andrew Luck's name in the MVP discussion, it would not be out of line. He took his team from 2-14 a year ago into the playoffs this season.

He broke Cam Newton's record for the most passing yards for a rookie and he currently leads the NFL with seven game-winning drives.

Luck shows great poise in the pocket and he has more than justified his spot as the top overall pick in the draft.

However, he has made some rookie mistakes this year. The quarterback is tied for the NFL lead with 18 interceptions and he has fumbled 10 times. 

Luck and Robert Griffin III will be compared to each other throughout their careers. In their first season, however, the second overall pick has been more impressive.


Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins: 40 percent

There are many things going for Griffin that could give him the award. 

First, he has been an incredibly efficient passer throughout the season. His 104.1 quarterback rating is second in the league, ahead of MVP candidates like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. His five interceptions are the fewest of anyone who has thrown over 300 pass attempts.

Just as impressively, he has been great as a runner as well. He currently has 752 rushing yards and leads the league with an average of 6.6 yards per carry.

He also makes incredible highlight-reel plays that fans love to see.

If he is able to defeat the Dallas Cowboys on the final day of the season and get his team in the playoffs, he will become a local legend in his first year with Washington.

In addition, he will clinch the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.