Super Bowl Picks 2013: Players You Can't Trust in Big Game

Jonathan Munshaw@@jon_munshawCorrespondent IFebruary 1, 2013

While Vernon Davis had 100 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, don't expect him to put up same numbers against the Ravens.
While Vernon Davis had 100 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, don't expect him to put up same numbers against the Ravens.Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Super Bowl prop bets, while lighthearted, can always get fans going about how many yards their favorite players will have.

Fans will be going back and forth every day leading up to the game about whether or not Ray Lewis will record three or four sacks, or if Anquan Boldin will catch a touchdown (he will).

There are players who are almost assured 100 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, such as Ray Rice, and players who will put up big numbers through the air, like Joe Flacco.

When going down the list of players to put your money behind, though, there are a few who should be kept off of that list at risk of under-performing.


Colin Kaepernick (rushing)

If the 49ers are going to win their sixth Super Bowl, quarterback Colin Kaepernick is going to have to have a big game.

However, his numbers aren’t likely going to come from rushing, as teams learned from the 49ers game against the Green Bay Packers that letting him take off on the option is a bad idea.

Featured columnist Brandon Alisoglu set one of his best prop bets as to whether or not Kaepernick will have seven rushes.

It’s definitely going to be the under, as the Ravens will want to avoid a repeat of the divisional round when Kaepernick ran 16 times for 181 yards and two touchdowns.

Expect Baltimore to take a similar approach to the Atlanta Falcons and force Kaepernick to hand it off when San Francisco runs the read option.

Even if Kaepernick can put up numbers through the air, he’ll likely be shut out on the ground.


Vernon Davis

The folks at CBS Philly set a prop bet for the total number of receiving yards for San Francisco’s tight end of over/under 50.5 yards.

It’s going to be the under. Davis had a solid game against the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game, catching five passes for 106 yards and a touchdown.

Prior to that, he hadn’t caught any more than two passes in the previous eight games, including the regular season.

If anyone in San Francisco’s receiving corps is going to have a big game, it will most likely be young wide receiver Michael Crabtree or the veteran Randy Moss.


Ray Lewis

While Ray Lewis will certainly bring a leadership factor to the Ravens on Sunday, his production will likely not be enough to be the main reason why Baltimore wins.

The International Business Times set the odds for Ray Lewis to win the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player Award at 7/1. Below him is Ray Rice at 10/1 and Anquan Boldin at 16/1.

It’s certainly possible that Lewis will have over 10 tackles and assists, but if the Ravens win, Rice and Boldin have a much better chance of winning MVP than Lewis. The key to a Baltimore victory is a whole lot of Ray Rice, and if he puts up over 100 yards and one or two touchdowns, that would put him in a much better spot than Lewis to win MVP.

This isn’t to say that Lewis wouldn’t be a factor if the Ravens win, but it would be a risky bet to think he’d win MVP.


All stats acquired from ESPN