Alex Smith: Realistic Expectations for Chiefs QB and Offense in 2013

Jesse ReedCorrespondent IMarch 7, 2013

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 30:   Alex Smith #11 of the San Francisco 49ers looks for an open man during a game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 30, 2012 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)
Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Alex Smith won't pass for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013. 

Such an expectation is simply unrealistic, which raises the question: What does Smith and the team's offense need to accomplish this upcoming season in order to be considered a success?

Interestingly enough, Kansas City's personnel on the offensive side of the ball is eerily similar to the talent Smith had to work with while he was with the San Francisco 49ers over the past couple of seasons:

  • Dwayne Bowe is a bigger, slightly faster version of Michael Crabtree. Jon Baldwin is a speedy receiver who can break out every now and then, much like Kyle Williams and Mario Manningham.
  • Tony Moeaki (if he can stay healthy) is an athletic tight end who can do damage in the middle of the field, like Vernon Davis. 
  • Dexter McCluster is similar to Ted Ginn and LaMichael James as a slot/screen specialist.
  • Jamaal Charles is a dynamic running back who is even more explosive than Frank Gore.
  • The Chiefs feature a solid offensive line that looks to be getting even better should the team draft Luke Joeckel No. 1 overall. 

Starting all 16 games for the 49ers in 2011, Smith completed 61.3 percent of his passes for 3,144 yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.

He only started 10 games in 2012 (finishing just nine), during which he completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 1,737 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. He was knocked out of his 10th game of the season with the concussion that effectively ended his season after just one quarter of play. 

If we do the math and calculate those numbers to reflect a 16-game season, Smith would have passed for roughly 3,088 yards, 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions. 

Smith's final two seasons with San Francisco were easily his two finest years as a pro, so is there any way Chiefs fans can expect more from him?


Smith is who he is, and Andy Reid can't change that fact.

If the Chiefs are to have success on offense in 2013, the team will need to run a balanced attack with Charles running the ball as much as Smith throws the ball. 

A best-case scenario for Smith and the Chiefs offense will look something like this:

  • Alex Smith: 65 percent completion percentage for 3,200 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
  • Dwayne Bowe: 85 receptions for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns.
  • Jon Baldwin: 30 receptions for 400 yards and three touchdowns.
  • Tony Moeaki: 60 receptions for 500 yards and five touchdowns.
  • Dexter McCluster: 60 receptions for 550 yards and four touchdowns.
  • Jamaal Charles: 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns rushing along with 40 receptions for 450 yards and two touchdowns.

If Smith and the rest of the players on offense can manage to match or exceed what has been laid out above, the Chiefs should win more games than they lose in 2013. 

Smith's completion percentage is down from his total in 2012, but he'll be working with an entirely new playbook and passing to players he's never played with before. 

What do you think? What kind of numbers should Smith and the rest of the players on offense put up for you to consider next season a successful one? Let us know in the comments section below. 


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