Why Robert Guerrero Can Upset Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Ralph LongoAnalyst IIIApril 24, 2013

LAS VEGAS, NV - APRIL 17: Boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr. works out at the Mayweather Boxing Club on April 17, 2013 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mayweather Jr. will fight Robert Guerrero for the WBC welterweight title at the MGM Grand Garden Arena on May 4, 2013.  (Photo by Bryan Haraway/Getty Images)
Bryan Haraway/Getty Images

With the "May Day" event fast approaching, fans of boxing are beginning to wonder if Robert Guerrero can make this an interesting fight, or if it'll be a Mayweather whitewash. Some think Mayweather is just going to walk over Guerrero, but they're mistaken. 

Guerrero definitely has the talent and style to make this an interesting fight, and possibly pull off the upset. So, how is he going to do it? 

The blueprint to beat Floyd Mayweather was shown when Mayweather first fought Jose Luis Castillo over a decade ago. Castillo was able to pressure Mayweather and attack his body along the ropes in a fight many thought was either a draw or a Mayweather loss. 

I personally scored it a draw, but the scoring is inconsequential. Mayweather was shown to have legitimate vulnerabilities. This was also the case in his fight against Miguel Cotto last May. Mayweather was hit repeatedly in spots by Cotto along the ropes, and struggled more than he has in recent years. 

Guerrero has the conditioning to carry out the plan Cotto had. Cotto faded in the championship rounds, which lead to his defeat, but Guerrero has shown the ability to sustain pressure and volume punching for all 12 rounds.

He routinely throws over 1000 punches a fight and finishes just as strongly as he starts. It's no secret that Floyd's legs aren't the same. He doesn't move nearly as much as he used to, so he'll have to stand and fight in this one. 

If Guerrero can get to the body early and throw 80-90 punches a round, Floyd's going to have some problems. Guerrero showed against Berto that he's capable of fighting a big, strong, fast, powerful Welterweight. 

Guerrero actually dominated that fight for the most part. If he can come into this bout in the same condition he was in last November against Berto, this could be a terrific fight.

If Guerrero brings the pressure, he may just spring the upset.