Kentucky Derby 2013: Revolutionary Will Prevail

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent IMay 3, 2013

Revolutionary, trained by Todd Pletcher, will win the Kentucky Derby.
Revolutionary, trained by Todd Pletcher, will win the Kentucky Derby.Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Rain will impact the 139th Kentucky Derby tomorrow at Churchill Downs. Due to the forecast predicting afternoon showers, the clear choice is Revolutionary, who is currently listed at 10-1 in the Daily Racing Form.

Falling Sky, the John Terranova-trained long shot, should be the pacesetter. In his last start, he faded to finish fourth in the Arkansas Derby on April 13. With a win over a wet track at Gulfstream Park, he should absolutely love any moisture.

Verrazano, Vyjack, and Goldencents should all be very close to the lead—especially Verrazano, who is undefeated in four career starts and is coming off a really solid work of 59.2 for five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 27.

Goldencents is trained by Doug O'Neill and is coming off a dominant win in the Santa Anita Derby, where he won by just under two lengths in 1:48.3. His 105 Beyer rating in his last start was his best ever.

I'm definitely using Orb in any exotic wagering, even though I'm not expecting much betting value from him tomorrow. Currently 7-2 in the Daily Racing Form, Joel Rosario rides this talented horse, who won the Florida Derby in his last start. Orb has never run over a wet track, but his 405 rating for the off track gives me the confidence that he will like the moisture.

Java's War appears poised to be a stretch threat based on his last race, a narrow win in the Blue Grass on April 13. After a slow start, Java's War stormed home to win, so the added distance tomorrow should be no problem. My only concern is the horse's marginal effort over the main track at Churchill in his only start.

I love Normandy Invasion, a deep closer who just missed in the Wood Memorial on April 6. Javier Castellano chooses to remain aboard this Chad Brown-trained horse, and I absolutely love the 59-second work for five furlongs on April 27.

Despite minimal early speed and a lot of quality of horses that prefer to stalk, the winner will be a deep closer, who will probably be at least 15-1 at post time.

Revolutionary has won three straight races, included two consecutive Graded Stakes. Despite the fact that Castellano chose Normandy Invasion, I love that trainer Todd Pletcher was able to secure the services of Calvin Borel.

This race has the ingredients for a great stretch run, but I like Revolutionary to hold off Orb and Java's Run in 2:03 flat. I'm going to use Orb and Java's Run for second with Normandy Invasion, Mylute, Verrazano and Charming Kitten for third.