Toledo Athletics: A Case in "How Not To Fix Games"

Myles ValentinContributor IMay 8, 2009

15 Nov 1997: Quarterback Chris Wallace #7 of Toledo Rockets calls the count from the line of scrimmage during the game against the Akron Zips at the Glassbowl in Toledo, Ohio. Toledo defeated Akron 42-10Mandatory Credit: Andy Lyons  /Allsport

Please note players listed in above photo from 1997 were not involved in the Toledo pointshaving scandal.

On Wednesday, federal indictments were handed out to two Detroit—area men, Ghazi Manni and Mitchell Edward Karman, along with several members of the Toledo Rockets basketball and football teams—all in connection to a series of games that were believed to be fixed between 2004 and 2006.

As I went through the court documents, I was disgusted with what I saw. Had I been in on the fix, I actually would have lost money!

The indictment lists the basketball games in question, along with the amount of money being wagered. If one were to follow Manni and Karman's bet strategy, they would finish with a *9-6-2 ATS record, having lost $54,000.

I would want much better than a 9-6-2 record.

Bet plan below:

  • Nov. 20/05 42K South Carolina -12 PUSH
  • Nov. 27/05 10K SMU +2 LOSS
  • Dec. 2/05 10K NIU +8.5 WON
  • Dec. 17/05 44K St. Bonaventure +10.5 LOSS
  • Dec. 21/05 21K ECU WON
  • Jan. 4/06 10K Kent St. -5 WON
  • Jan. 7/06 15K Akron -6.5 WON
  • Jan. 15/06 17K BGSU +4.5 WON
  • Jan. 18/06 21K Miami (OH) -6.5 WON
  • Jan. 24/06 40K NIU -5.5 LOSS
  • Feb. 1/06 40K WMU -1.5 WON
  • Feb. 4/06 20.5K CMU +14 LOSS
  • Feb. 7/06 20K Kent St. -1.5 LOSS
  • Feb. 18/06  30K Detroit -2.5 LOSS
  • Nov. 20/06 25K VCU +1 PUSH
  • Dec. 2/06 21K Vandy -4 WON
  • Dec. 19/06 21K Detroit +10.5 WON

Even the games in which the Toledo basketball team managed to count properly and not cover the spread were way too close for comfort

Take for instance the February 1, 2006 gameat Western Michigan. Manni and Karman had $40,000 on WMU who were favored by 1.5 points. The game came down to the final 30 seconds with Kasif Payne (indicted by the way) missing two free throws.

I'm sorry but if I fix a game and have $40,000 on it, I want the game to not come down to the final seconds. And actually what disgusts me most about Manni and Karman is not their record ATS as it is above 50 percent, but rather their money management. They were 1-2-1 in games where they bet over $40,000.

Basically you had no advantage from being "in" on these fixed Toledo basketball games. It's the equivalent of buying picks from Brandon Lang.

So remember kids, just because you know a game is going to be fixed, it does not mean that the fix will be carried out properly.

I'm here to help.

Other Notes from games:

—After a 2-1-2 start against the spread (not good for bettors in on the fix), the Toledo basketball team finally got the hang of things by losing the next five against the spread.

—Toledo messed up the last three fixed games of the 2005/06 season by covering the spread, no doubt causing a tense if not awkward offseason.

—Toledo came back and did their job the next season losing two against the spread and having one push. However all these games were close. The Vandy game went into OT and only missed by one point, while they only lossed the Detroit game by half a point.

Source information taken from court documents and lines from archives of the 2005/06 and 2006/07 basketball seasons.

Author did not bet on any MAC basketball games during the 2005/2006 season. His gambling picks (he's on a roll in MLB)  can be followed fixedfree on twitter.


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