Fantasy football is a funny business.
Thus far in Week 3, five of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in standard-scoring leagues were Jake Locker, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel and Brian Hoyer. Meanwhile, Jason Snelling, Ahmad Bradshaw, Johnathan Franklin and Bilal Powell cracked the top 10 for running backs.
And don't even get me started on the wide receivers or tight ends.
The point is, fantasy football rankings are a guide, not a science. They're a reflection of a player's past performance and his current matchup, not a soothsayer's free tour into the future. If there was one lesson to be taken from Week 3, it's that the NFL remains as unpredictable as ever.
With that in mind, here's an early look at my Week 4 fantasy rankings and projections.
Note: Rankings are for standard-scoring leagues.
Gronk caught 11 of Brady's 34 touchdown passes a year ago. He will be the one player on this offense to force mismatches and control the middle of the field. Brady will also trust him the most in the red zone.
The Falcons aren't pushovers, but they also aren't kryptonite for fantasy quarterbacks. In a Sunday night showdown that could easily turn into a shootout, look for Brady to break out of his fantasy funk.
And yes, I think Colin Kaepernick will rebound against the St. Louis Rams, even with a short week and a disappointing receiving corps. Remember, the Rams are allowing 19.7 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers per week.
Running Back Notes
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a mess, the Arizona Cardinals are tough against the run and Doug Martin is averaging just 11.9 fantasy points per week in standard-scoring leagues. So why the heck do I have him at No. 7 on my list?
For one, because Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster have really tough matchups in the game between the Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans. The San Diego Chargers are tough against the run, making DeMarco Murray's matchup a tough call. We still don't know how much Trent Richardson will produce with the Indianapolis Colts.
And Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris (the Oakland Raiders have been stingy against opposing running backs in fantasy in the first two weeks, believe it or not) and whomever starts at running back for the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions all have tough opponents.
Plus, Martin has matchup-defying talent and is always one big play away from making your fantasy afternoon. For all of the Bucs' dysfunction, he's still produced. Don't sleep on him this week.
Wide Receiver Notes
In Week 1, Leonard Hankerson finished with five catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 2, Eddie Royal had seven catches for 90 yards and three scores. In Week 3, Donnie Avery had seven catches for an astonishing 141 yards.
The common thread? All three faced the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that has been shredded by opposing passing attacks, particularly proving to be vulnerable against slot receivers. Now, just imagine what Wes Welker and Peyton Manning will do against them.
And let's not forget about Demaryius Thomas either.
A matchup against Joe Haden may make you think A.J. Green's ranking is too high, but keep in mind that Green went for seven receptions, 135 yards and two touchdowns when the Cincinnati Bengals faced the Cleveland Browns in Week 6 last year. (Haden missed their Week 2 matchup.) Green will produce.
Reggie Wayne has offered modest results for fantasy owners the past two weeks, but he'll go to town against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Tight End Notes
Jordan Cameron has 20 receptions for 269 yards and four touchdowns, and unbelievably, he's available in 25.2 percent of ESPN leagues. He's a must-start every week, folks—go pick him up!
I don't want to hear anything about rust. If Gronkowski returns this week, he'll produce. Brady might target him 15 times given how inconsistent his wide receivers have been.
Get Coby Fleener in those lineups this week. The Jaguars have a wretched pass defense and gave up two touchdowns to Zach Miller on Sunday.
If Vernon Davis plays, make sure he's in your lineup. It's obvious Kaepernick really needs him given the paltry play of San Francisco's wide receivers not named Anquan Boldin.
Defense/Special Team Notes
I know Brian Hoyer looked like the next coming of Bernie Kosar on Sunday, but come on, do you really think that is sustainable? Especially against a Bengals defense that just held Aaron Rodgers to 244 passing yards, a touchdown and two interceptions?
Nope, I don't either. Their defense is a great start this week.
I know the 49ers defense has been a disappointment for fantasy owners this year, but Thursday night games have a habit of being sloppy, and the Rams offense stagnated against a good Dallas defense. Don't give up on the Niners just yet.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a good play this week. The New York Giants have allowed an average of 20 fantasy points per week to opposing defenses. Seriously. I might have the Chiefs ranked a bit low here considering that stat, though at some point, the Giants will play better.
It certainly can't get any worse.
They are kickers. Their ways are mysterious, their production fickle and their bodies unusually small in contrast to the surrounding players on the field. It takes a braver man than me to try to understand the ways of the fantasy kicker.
Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, make ill-fated NFL predictions and tweet cheesy jokes. Bring your own beer, though.