Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos: Betting Odds Preview, Monday Night Pick

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistSeptember 23, 2013

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 5: Wide receiver Andre Caldwell #12 of the Denver Broncos celebrates a third quarter touchdown  during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on September 5, 2013 in Denver Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Can the Oakland Raiders pull off a final Week 3 upset in a week that saw many favorites go down in flames?

If they can, it would be the biggest one, and there are plenty of trends that point to the possibility of a Monday Night Football upset when the Denver Broncos host Oakland. There is also plenty of common sense information that points to Peyton Manning bucking that trend and sending Denver backers to payout window.

"The point spread reached as high as 16.5 points midweek and was still -16 last night, but was bet down to two touchdowns as of Monday morning," said Jack Randall, an analyst at OddsShark.com, in an interview Monday.

"After Cleveland won as a big dog in Minnesota, and the Colts did the same in San Francisco, favorite bettors are treading lightly here."

Indeed, some trends suggest caution. Double-digit underdogs are now 4-1 ATS on the season.

And Oakland has always been kind to bettors when they visit Denver, as they are 6-1 ATS in seven seasons. Then, there is Oakland's ATS road mark within the AFC West where they are riding a 10-1 run, according to OddsShark.com.

But Denver has lit up the scoreboard for 90 points in two games and nothing in the Oakland defense hints that it can stop Manning.

Denver, trying to rebound after getting bounced from the playoffs (in gut-wrenching fashion) by Baltimore last year, opened this season by lighting up the Ravens in a 49-27 victory. Then last week Peyton and the boys went into New Jersey and beat little brother Eli and his Giants 41-23.

The Broncos covered as 7-point favorites over Baltimore and as 4-point road faves over the G-Men. Through two games Manning has completed 67 percent of his throws, with nine TD passes and zero interceptions. Denver has won its last 13 regular-season games in a row.

On the other side of this AFC West rivalry bout, Oakland opened this season with a 21-17 loss at Indianapolis, a game they led with 10 minutes to go. The Silver and Black then picked up its first victory of the season, albeit against maybe the worst team in the league, beating Jacksonville last week 19-9.

Oakland is 2-0 ATS, covering as 11-point dogs at the Colts and as four-point favorites at home over the Jags.

Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor, after winning the starting job from Matt Flynn in camp, has hit on 64 percent of his passes so far, and rushed for 162 yards.

Oakland's best chance of pulling off an upset Monday night will require, among other things, playing some serious ball-control on offense, utilizing a running game that's produced 171 and 226 yards in two games so far this season.

The Broncos swept the season series from Oakland last year, winning 37-6 at home and 26-13 at the Coliseum. Denver covered both games, as favorites of seven and 10 points, and both those games played UNDER on the totals.

ESPN has the live coverage of the doings from Denver on Monday night, with kickoff slated for 8:40 p.m. ET.

Computer Prediction: 42-27 Denver, from Odds Shark NFL picks computer