Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown: Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown
No. 2-ranked Condit rebounded from his back-to-back losses with a stoppage of Martin Kampmann on August 28. Brown won his sixth straight in a quick KO against Mike Pyle on August 17. The win moved Brown into the top 10 at No. 10.
Whomever wins this fight will be in line for a title shot. It will be hard to argue against either man.
There is a lot at stake in this 170-pound scrap, and it should be one of the more anticipated fights of that card. These are two exciting warriors, and this is your early look at the matchup.
This is the most exciting area of the fight. Both of these fighters love to strike and put on a show for the fans.
Brown's "technical brawling" is such an accurate way to describe his style. Condit, on the other hand, has a more refined striking attack.
Condit gets the edge because he is simply the better striker. Will he be the more effective one in December? We'll find out when they fight, but I'd wager that yes he will. Condit's growing striking abilities are due in part to his improved footwork and head movement.
Condit has outstruck Nick Diaz and Martin Kampmann. He has held his own against powerhouse Johny Hendricks and the incomparable GSP. Is Matt Brown on any of their levels? No. Condit should be able to thwart his aggression and counter it very well.
The grappling department may be closer than the striking category, but the edge still goes to Condit.
Condit has been taken down in each of his last two fights. However, Brown is not Hendricks. Can he surprise Condit like Kampmann did? It's certainly possible, but Condit will be more prepared for Brown's takedowns than he was for Kampmann's.
The higher level of competition that Condit has faced will have a great impact on this fight. Brown is a quality fighter with a good well-rounded skill set, but Condit's growth as a fighter in the high-profile bouts simply makes him a better fighter.
Condit is strong in the clinch. If Brown forces him against the cage he will fight for underhooks, reverse position or break away and get back to a striking distance.
Brown can take Condit down, but I don't envision it happening.
Condit has refined his submission skills, and that used to be one of his strongest aspects. Due to his striking abilities those have taken a backseat in recent fights.
He nearly finished Kampmann with submissions in his last outing.
For Brown, his last four UFC defeats are all via submission. That includes his 0-3 bid in 2010.
Two of those tap outs came at the hands of very good submission stylists in Ricardo Almeida and Chris Lytle. But he was also submitted by Brian Foster and Seth Baczynski. Not the most notable submission artists to have ever competed in the UFC.
Brown will need to have his defense on point in this fight.
Brown's X-Factor: Cutting Off the Cage
Condit's movement will pose a big problem for Brown.
Brown loves to pressure his opponents and get in their face. Condit has a very good ability to avoid the pressure and get away. If Brown can force Condit in a corner he has a shot at the upset.
He cannot chase Condit around all fight. He will get countered viciously if that is the case. He has to cut off the cage and put Condit in front of him.
Condit's X-Factor: Movement
Everyone knows Brown is coming straight forward. He is a warrior who goes right after his opponent.
Condit can negate the effectiveness of his aggression, one of the scoring criteria under the unified rules, by utilizing his footwork to circling out and away from Brown. Look for Condit to be an effective counter-striker in this fight.
He has proven he can do it very well, but he will need to be on point in December.
Condit is the better fighter. Period.
Brown has had a very good and very exciting run that put him in the top 10 of the division. He has earned that right. This is just an awful matchup for him. Condit is better in every area, and he will not be as affected by Brown's pressure as past opponents.
Condit's footwork is fantastic. His game-planning may be even better. The combination of the two will lead to a win. He will not be cornered in this fight.
Condit will touch Brown up for as long as he wants. He will batter Brown's face and hurt him on the feet. I don't see Brown getting knocked out, but while hurt Condit will take the time to finish the fight with a submission. All of this will happen in under five minutes.
Another title shot will be earned by Condit.
Prediction: Condit defeats Brown via submission in the first round