Jacksonville Jaguars vs. St. Louis Rams: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 1, 2013

ST LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 26:   Robert Quinn #94 of the St. Louis Rams reacts to a touchdown by  Frank Gore #21 of the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Edward Jones Dome on September 26, 2013 in St Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Rarely do you see a mediocre 1-3 team open as a double-digit favorite. But if you are the St. Louis Rams and there happens to be a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) visiting in Week 5, it’s possible to find yourself a 12.5-point favorite.

Point Spread: Rams opened as 12.5-point favorites; the total was 42 (line updates and matchup report).

Computer Prediction: 8.2-3.0 Rams

Why the Jaguars Can Cover the Spread

Jacksonville is the worst team in the league. It's 0-4 both SU and ATS, getting out-gained by over 150 yards per game and ranks right near the bottom in most important offensive and defensive categories.

However, the Jags are on the road and may be getting a few more points than they should against a team like the Rams. Can you say "back-door cover" against a team that is 0-5 ATS in five recent tries as a home favorite?

Why the Rams Can Cover the Spread

St. Louis has struggled as a home favorite, but the Jaguars have been dominated in every game this season. And Jacksonville has been a money loser as a road underdog which plays into this angle. The Jags are 0-5 ATS their last five games getting points on the highway.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is predicting St. Louis to win a low-scoring game, but for Jacksonville to cover the spread. The Jaguars are bad, but they're also getting double-digit points from a team that sometimes can't get out of its own way.

Take Jacksonville and the points.

Trends

The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their past five games as a home favorite.

The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their past five games as a road underdog.

All spread and odds data courtesy of Odds Shark. Follow the website on Twitter for injury and line movement updates.

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