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Projected BCS Rankings 2013: Updated Top 25 BCS Standings Predictions

Samuel ChiCollege Football Playoff GuruOctober 20, 2013

On the eve of the release of the season's first official BCS standings, upsets ruled the day, as half of the Top 10 teams in last week's simulated BCS standings went down in defeat. The trend, in fact, started Friday night, when Central Florida dumped Louisville.

Five ranked SEC teams also lost, including Top 10 teams LSU and Texas A&M, against conference foes. This fashions an entirely new Top 10, with several unbeaten teams finally breaking through into the top of the standings. All told, there are just 10 unbeaten teams remaining in FBS after Saturday.

But the most surprising development may be Florida State's ascension to No. 2, narrowly edging Oregon. The Seminoles scored an impressive victory at Clemson, which was ranked No. 3 last week. By picking up a considerable number of vote shares, as well as the No. 1 ranking in the computers, FSU should have a razor-thin margin over the Ducks.

Projected BCS Standings
RankTeamCoaches PollHarris PollComputersPvs
1Alabama1121
2Florida State3314
3Oregon2232
4Ohio State4485
5Missouri77413
6Baylor55610
7Stanford66511
8Clemson9873
9Miami (Fla.)891014
10UCLA111098
11LSU1212116
12Texas A&M1011137
13Texas Tech13131916
14South Carolina14141812
15Oklahoma17161517
16Auburn22191223
17Virginia Tech19201618
18Northern Illinois21211722
19Louisville1515259
20Fresno State18172319
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* Other teams likely to be ranked in Top 25: Oklahoma State, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon State and Michigan.

Other important observations on the season's first BCS projections:

* Florida State's lead on Oregon might not last very long. With games against UCLA and Stanford coming up, the Ducks will have ample opportunity to regain the vote shares and improve their computer rankings. On the flip side, the Seminoles only have Miami and a damaged Florida team left on the regular-season schedule to help their cause.

* Missouri and Baylor both still have a chance to jump over Ohio State in the coming weeks. With the Buckeyes not getting much help from a mediocre Big Ten, those two upstarts should be able to pick up votes as Ohio State's computer rankings continue to lag behind.

* Northern Illinois now has a chance to close the BCS era as the second non-AQ team to earn back-to-back BCS bowl trips (after TCU in 2009-10). If the Huskies win out, they most likely will earn a BCS bid, as they're on the precipice of being qualified via the Top 16 clause. With Louisville's loss, NIU should be able skip ahead of the Cardinals as well as Fresno State, its main competition for the non-AQ bid.

* The SEC, Pac-12 and ACC likely will claim at-large berths to BCS bowls, with the last spot going to either NIU or Fresno State. If the non-AQs should falter, the last BCS bowl bid likely will fall to the Big 12, unless a Big Ten team upsets Ohio State for the conference title.

Projected BCS Bowl Matchups
BowlMatchup
BCS ChampionshipAlabama vs. Oregon
Rose BowlStanford vs. Ohio State
Orange BowlFlorida State vs. Central Florida
Sugar BowlMissouri vs. Clemson
Fiesta BowlBaylor vs. Northern Illinois
Projected as at end of season

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