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Projected BCS Rankings 2013: Week 15 Top 25 BCS Standings Predictions

AUBURN, AL - NOVEMBER 30:  Daniel Carlson #38 of the Auburn Tigers celebrates their 34 to 28 win over the Alabama Crimson Tide at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 30, 2013 in Auburn, Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Samuel ChiCollege Football Playoff GuruDecember 1, 2013

When Chris Davis ran back a missed Alabama field goal from under his goalposts all the way to the other end zone, he did his part to end the Crimson Tide's two-year reign as BCS champions. When Missouri defeated Texas A&M later, it's now nearly official.

Nearly.

Incredibly, Alabama is not quite finished as a contender for the 2013 BCS title game. The Tide are projected to drop to No. 4 in the next BCS standings and are in need of a semi-miracle to make it to Pasadena. But that path is not entirely closed.

This is what needs to happen: Both Florida State and Ohio State will have to lose their respective conference championship games, while Baylor and Oklahoma State will also have to lose their regular-season finales to hand the Big 12 title to three-loss Texas. If all that takes place, then 'Bama might edge Michigan State for a second all-SEC BCS final in three years.

Projected BCS Standings
RankTeamRecordConferencePvs
1Florida State12-0ACC2
2Ohio State12-0Big Ten3
3Auburn11-1SEC4
4Alabama11-1SEC1
5Missouri11-1SEC5
6Oklahoma State10-1Big 127
7Stanford10-2Pac-128
8Baylor10-1Big 129
9South Carolina10-2SEC10
10Michigan State11-1Big Ten11
11Arizona State10-2Pac-1212
12Oregon10-2Pac-1213
13Clemson10-2ACC6
14Northern Illinois12-0MAC14
15LSU9-3SEC17
16Central Florida10-1American19
17Oklahoma9-2Big 1218
18UCLA9-3Pac-1222
19Louisville10-1American20
20Duke10-2ACC24
21Wisconsin9-3Big Ten15
22Fresno State10-1MWC16
23Cincinnati9-2AmericanNR
24Georgia8-4SECNR
25Texas8-3Big 12NR
BCS Guru

Why would Baylor and Oklahoma State also have to lose? You can't count on anything with the plethora of one-loss teams in the mix. There's the human element to consider as well: Voters simply might not be willing to sign off on another all-SEC BCS title game if they can help it, especially if the other team is a conference champion.

For now, the most intriguing question is whether Ohio State will hang on to its No. 2 spot over Auburn.

For this week, yes, but thanks to a boost in the computers, Auburn will make it uncomfortably close for the Buckeyes. And next week, there is a realistic, but slim, chance for the winning Tigers to leapfrog Ohio State if it scores an unimpressive victory over Michigan State that causes massive voter defection.

But most likely, if both Florida State and Ohio State win their respective conference title games, the SEC's seven-year stranglehold on the BCS title will be over. The last BCS championship game not to feature an SEC team was also held in Pasadena, when Vince Young and Texas ended USC's dynasty in the epic 2006 Rose Bowl.

Alabama's own dynasty ending should be a boon for the Orange Bowl, which will no doubt grab the Tide to replace Florida State in the game. Then the intrigue begins.

If Michigan State stays in the Top 14 even after a loss to Ohio State, the Rose Bowl is expected to stay loyal to the Big Ten and grab the Spartans, leaving the Orange Bowl with the next pick. The choices will be down to two-loss Clemson and two-loss Oregon, and also Baylor if it beats Texas but does not win the Big 12.

Hardest hit by the BCS arrangement since its inception and with its recent games filled with duds, the Orange Bowl just might opt for the attractive Alabama-Oregon matchup that for much of the season was projected to be the BCS title game. That's won't be a bad consolation prize.

Projected BCS Bowl Matchups
BowlMatchup
BCS ChampionshipFlorida State vs. Ohio State
Rose BowlStanford vs. Michigan State
Orange BowlAlabama vs. Oregon
Sugar BowlAuburn vs. Central Florida
Fiesta BowlOklahoma State vs. Northern Illinois
Projected as at end of season

 

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