UFC 169: Mir vs. Overeem Betting Odds and Predictions

Donald Wood@@Donald_WoodFeatured ColumnistJanuary 29, 2014

Aug 16, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Alistair Overeem flexes during the weigh-in for his UFC fight at TD Garden tomorrow night. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

When former heavyweight champion Frank Mir (16-8) squares off against Alistair Overeem (36-13-1) Saturday, Feb. 1 at the Prudential Center in a supporting card fight at UFC 169, the MMA world will be focused on this important battle.

Instead of this being for a chance to fight for the heavyweight title, these two former elite fighters are trying to save their jobs. Mir has lost three straight bouts and Overeem was destroyed by both Antonio Silva and Travis Browne in back-to-back fights.

The winner of this fight will begin the march back into championship contention, and the loser will be one step closer to an early retirement.

Here is all the vital viewing and betting information for UFC 169 and a full preview of this heavyweight fight.


Where: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.

When: Saturday, Feb 1 at 10 p.m. EST

Watch: Pay-per-view

Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

UFC 169 Betting Information
Weight ClassFighter 1OddsFighter 2OddsPrediction
Bantamweight Renan Barao (c)-280Urijah Faber +220Barao via TKO
Featherweight Jose Aldo (c)-650Ricardo Lamas +425Aldo via TKO
Heavyweight Alistair Overeem-325Frank Mir +250Overeem via Submission
FlyweightAli Bagautinov -135John Lineker+105Lineker via Decision
Lightweight Jamie Varner-155Abel Trujillo +125Varner via Decision
Source: Bovada. (c) denotes champion


Mir vs. Overeem Preview and Prediction

There are few stars in recent MMA history as disappointing as Overeem. Heralded as one of the next big faces of the sport, he was signed by the UFC after a storied kickboxing career and dominating the ranks of Pride and Strikeforce.

After beating Brock Lesnar and earning a shot at then-heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos, Overeem was suspended for failing a random drug test. Since returning from that suspension, he has been knocked out twice and has looked like a slower version of the fighter many believed would eventually win the title.

As if a sign of mercy, Dana White and the matchmakers have given Overeem the chance to prove he deserves a spot on the roster by beating heavyweight gatekeeper Mir. The former champion is a shell of the championship contender he once was, and three straight losses have serious doubts surrounding how much longer he can go in the Octagon.

Both men have their backs against the wall. Something must give.

Mir is the more likable of these two fighters, but at 34 years old and with plenty of damage from years and years of fighting in the UFC’s heavyweight division—he debuted in the company on Nov. 2, 2001—Overeem should win this matchup.

Using his heavy striking and elite kicks, Overeem must keep Mir at a distance and force this fight to stay standing up. The challenger is a much better wrestler, and Mir will punish Overeem if he gains the top position.

With the kicks forcing Mir to think twice about shooting for the takedown, the heavy hands of Overeem will knock his opponent down. That’s when his submission skills will kick in, and Mir will be in serious trouble.

Mir’s anti-submission form has never been perfect, and when Overeem finds the opening needed to lock in a rear-naked choke or a guillotine, he won’t miss his opportunity.

Predicted Winner: Overeem via Second-Round Submission.


*Stats via UFC.com. Betting information via Bovada.lv.


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