In regards to Zach Fein's latest article, "How NFL Statistics Lead To Wins Pt. 3: Salary Cap Efficiency Since 2000," I have computed the probability that a team will win based on the flavor of Gatorade consumed.
Gatorade flavor has long been discussed in the NFL community, ever since Bill Parcells was doused with the sports drink after winning Super Bowl XXI.
In fact, Vegas even included a prop bet based on the color of Gatorade dunked on the winning coach. Clear Gatorade and water were the flavors of choice for Super Bowl winners from 2005-2007; however, lemon-lime Gatorade was poured onto Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin after winning Super Bowl XLIII, as you can see here.
Below is a graph that shows drink flavor and a corresponding winning percentage. This winning percentage would be the actual winning percentage of the team drinking that flavor.
To find this information, I only looked at the preceding three years, using a meticulous procedure of viewing game tape to see the Gatorade that was consumed by each team.
Of course, I only viewed footage of the teams' home games because on the road they don't have their drink of choice. I also have come the the conclusion that home-field advantage is all about getting your drink of choice—all these crowd myths are false.
Remember, this information was collected over the past three years.
Teams that use water as their sideline refreshment have the best winning percentage over the past three years. Those teams consist of the New England Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts, and the New York Giants.
The teams that drink fruit punch Gatorade include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Baltimore Ravens, the Carolina Panthers, the Seattle Seahawks, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys, the Chicago Bears, the New York Jets, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Atlanta Falcons.
Lemon-lime is drunk by the Arizona Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Tennessee Titans, the Washington Redskins, the New Orleans Saints, the Houston Texans, the San Diego Chargers, the Denver Broncos, and the Miami Dolphins.
Orange-flavored Gatorade is the drink of choice for the Buffalo Bills, the San Francisco 49ers, the Cleveland Browns, and the Green Bay Packers.
The teams that drink grape Gatorade consist of the St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, the Oakland Raiders, and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The team that drinks Vitamin Water is the Detroit Lions.
There is a clear and obvious relationship between Gatorade flavor and win percentage; the only team that looks to be in the wrong group is the Pittsburgh Steelers. In fact, without the Steelers, the Lemon-Lime win percentage drops from .505 to .412.
We can look at this from more of a mathematical standpoint: The correlation of any team's win percentage with the combined W% of all the teams in their flavor group (excluding themselves) was .85, which suggests that the two variables—win percentage and Gatorade flavor—are highly correlated.
Is your team struggling? Maybe a change in Gatorade flavor can help.
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