Despite the fact that Wisconsin is ranked 19th and has a 2-1 record in the Big Ten, the Badgers are still the underdogs as they head into Happy Valley for what should be a very competitive Big Ten matchup.
Although there have been some off-field incidents in State College, PA this week—causing some minor players to miss playing time—I think I'll do everyone a favor and focus on what will happen on the field this Saturday.
PSU Run Offense vs. Wisconsin Run Defense
It looks like former uber-recruit Austin Scott won't play another down for Penn State, but that doesn't mean the Lions will miss a beat.
That's because senior Rodney Kinlaw and freshman Evan "Rolls" Royster combined for well over five yards-per-carry against Iowa last week. Although Penn State's runners were less effective against Michigan and Illinois, Wisconsin's run defense was generous against MSU and Illinois.
The good news for the Badgers: They did much better against Iowa's running game, which is more comparable in style to Penn State's.
PSU Pass Offense v. Wisconsin Pass Defense
This is where Penn State can really hurt Wisconsin.
The Badgers gave up big numbers to MSU through the air (9.0 yards per attempt), and the Citadel's Duran Lawson gained 7.3 YPA. That's the same average he had against Citadel's I-AA opponents.
Even Juice Williams, whose season YPA is 5.07, threw for 6.4 YPA when the Badgers visited Champagne.
It looks like Anthony Morelli and his 7.1 season YPA could have a big game.
Morelli, who has been under much scrutiny thanks to his lack of production against Michigan and Illinois, bounced back with some good deep throws against Iowa. His YPA for the last two games has been above his season average, but he threw five picks between those two games.
If Morelli can stay away from the turnovers against the Badgers, he should find enough big play opportunities to win one for Old State.
Wisconsin Run Offense v. PSU Run Defense
P.J. Hill has been a workhorse for Wisconsin, but his performances in Big Ten games hasn't been outstanding. Most noticeable is his 3.9 yards per carry against an Iowa team that couldn't slow down Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster.
Although PSU's run defense struggled against Illinois, that team can run on everybody.
More significant in this matchup was the ability of the Lions to hold Mike Hart to 3.5 YPC. I know P.J. Hill is tough, but they don't call it "Linebacker U" for nothing.
If PSU can slow down Hill, the pressure will be on Tyler Donovan to make plays.
Wisconsin Pass Offense v. PSU Pass Defense
After a terrible game in the win against Iowa, Wisconsin's Tyler Donovan produced against MSU and Iowa.
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