NFL Week 12 Picks: Thanksgiving Day 2009

Lorraine PerlaContributor INovember 26, 2009

It looks like all the ingredients are in place for a great day of watching football between Packers vs. Lions. Totals are back with a pair of plays for Thursday, trying to extend the five-game winning streak of NFL power rating Over/Under picks.

Sometimes betting the games on a day like this can feel like a Monday Night Football that just won’t end.

By that I mean, you might not like the card, but the recreational gambler in you cannot let the day slip by without getting at least a bet or two in that will help add to the festivities.

The Thanksgiving lineup is criticized nearly every season in the forums and on sports talk radio shows, and it usually begins with a stab at whoever is in charge of booking the Lions a guaranteed reservation each year.

I’m not really sure who decides on the schedule, but it is what it is.

If betting on double-digit divisional favorites or mismatched inter-conference lines is not your forte, the option is always there to pass on the game altogether.

But no matter how far apart the spread is for side betting at your online sportsbook, there is one solution that gives you action on the game without picking a single team to win: Bet the total instead!

We’ve run the numbers for this year’s Turkey Day football marathon and come up with two Over/Under plays to consider for anyone looking to get in on the action.

NFL Week 12 Picks – Thanksgiving Day

1. Oakland at Dallas "Over" 40: This inter-conference game fits into a unique profile where the play is dependent on the size of the total. The past 10 games have produced five overs and five unders, but all five unders were in games with posted total of 42 or more.

The average posted total in those five games was 47 and anything rated at 41.5 or less in the past year-and-a-half has gone "Over" the number.

2. New York Giants at Denver "Under" 42.5
: Since 2007 these inter-conference standalone games being played in prime time are a perfect 6-0 when betting the "Under."

No matter what plays you make, or for whatever amounts they are for, try to take a moment today and think of what Thanksgiving Day means to you and your family.

Win or lose, we still have to appreciate what makes this day special for every sports fan in America.

Enjoy the games and good luck.