The rich keep getting richer- that's the theme for the Pac-10's 2008 outlook.
Two teams have had major coaching changes, and injuries to some teams' key players will play an important role in determining the pecking order of these ten teams. An interesting story-line is that only one team returns fifteen or more starters this year. The Stanford Cardinal.
1. USC Trojans.
The Trojans will not be rebuilding this year, nor any other year, unless the NCAA decides to hand out some sanctions. They just keep reloading, and already have a killer recruiting class for 2009. The Trojans have some key losses on both sides of the ball, but their baptism by fire with their season-opener at Virginia should get them fairly used to what the expectations are.
Offense.
The O-line is the biggest concern of the team due to the losses of both tackles, two guards and their center. Left tackle is the biggest concern- it's QB Mark Sanchez' blind side- but the five projected starting linemen have all had starting experience. Since Sanchez is an extremely mobile quarterback, the O-line could have less pressure defending the pass rush until they jell as a unit.
The quarterback picture is crystal clear, and the Trojans have the perfect storm brewing. All three- Mark Sanchez, Mitch Mustain and Aaron Corp- could start today on any FBS team. The running back situation is also a little less muddled, now that three tailbacks are not returning. The stable is talented and deep, with Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and CJ Gable getting most of the touches.
The wide receiver corps, usually a reliable unit for the Trojans, underachieved last season. Too many dropped catches and incorrect route-running. This year's Spring practice saw a different unit taking hard hits and hanging on to the ball. Patrick Turner, Vidal Hazleton, David Ausberry and Damian Johnson will all split duty, while TE Chris McCoy has big shoes to replace- Mackey Award winner Fred Davis.
Defense.
This unit will be ranked in the top five in the country for good reason, despite the losses of LB Keith Rivers, DT Sedrick Ellis and DE Lawrence Jackson. The projected starters are all top notch, including sophomore Everson Griffen. The linebacking unit has been ranked #1 or #2 preseason, and the Nagurski Award could go to Rey Maualuga this year if he out-shines the other big contender- James Laurinaitis- in their game against the Buckeyes on September 13th.
The secondary suffered one big loss in CB Terrell Thomas, but the senior duos of Josh Pinkard and Cary Harris will fill the loss nicely with their experience. Safeties Taylor Mays (6-4, 225) and Kevin Ellison both had extensive playing time last year, and this secondary unit could be one of the best in the nation. Mays looks and hits like a linebacker. Remember his name.
Outlook.
The Trojans should win the conference championship due to a more favorable schedule- they host Oregon, Arizona State, Washington and Cal- three of the four other contenders in the Pac-10. The Trojans' BCS title game's hopes come down to two dates: September 13th hosting the Buckeyes, and November 29th hosting a much-improved Fighting Irish. Win them both and beat the Sun Devils and Ducks, and it's off to the BCS title game.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils
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6 months ago
really well written...how long did it take you to write that?
6 months ago
Doug-
Freaking forever! My fingers hurt!
6 months ago
Nice article, but would you please give Cal back its football coach?
No way anyone in Berkeley is swapping Harbaugh for Tedford!
:-)
6 months ago
OMG Jim! Thanks for that...I had written second year coach Jeff Tedford, but I knew it was Jim Harbaugh! (How can I forget after what he said about Pete Carroll last year?) Stanford was my last team to write about, and I think I had a brain lapse there. I'm beat after writing this...thanks for the correction!
from 5 months ago
Good article, I think you underrate Stanford. Returning 16 starters, plus the easiest opponents come early...Stanford's never a deep program so they're going to be banged up and lose the late games anyway, but talent-wise they're no worse off than Arizona, Wazzu, or Washington (not to mention UCLA, who I think is seriously in for a down year). Plus they've got a good motivator up there. And the defense is seriously legitimate. A bowl's obviously a reach, but I see 4-5 games being reasonable.
6 months ago
I meant John, not Jim...see? I'm punchy. Good night!
6 months ago
What a great, simple breakdown! I really enjoyed reading a clear, unpretentious analysis of the Pac-10 2008 season without obscure testosterone-fueled jargon that only Jim Romeesque listeners understand.
Kudos.
from 6 months ago
Chris-
Thanks. I have to keep it simple...too much info to put out there. But hopefully, a Pac-10 fan can find their team and read everything they need to know heading into Fall.
6 months ago
Chris hit it on the head, this was a very simple yet well put read. And as a die hard USC fan I appreciate honesty more than espn b.s haha
from 6 months ago
Reggie-
Fight on!
We looked awesome at Spring "Huddle"! I was hoping the Bruins would have had a great practice also, but all those injuries and losses really put a damper on their Spring game. They will not have a good year, but next year, they will be very good.
6 months ago
man, Lisa, you're a sportswriting machine!
nice breakdown.
i'll have to file this is the reference section.
from 6 months ago
Justin-
Thanks! Thank goodness this wasn't the SEC...that's two more teams to analyze! Now, I am expecting an analysis from you on the SEC...whoo hoo!
from 6 months ago
i guess i'll have to clear my schedule. doh!!!
6 months ago
What the hell. How does the Tiger Woods article get pick of the day and not this? Thorough research and understanding demonstrated with proficient writing skills. Guess that doesn't cut it, but it does for me. PotD.
from 6 months ago
Nathan-
Hey thanks for the props! The Tiger Woods piece rocked!
6 months ago
I have to seriously question your ranking system after USC and ASU. Oregon at #3. Not next season. With major question marks at QB and a brutal schedule, the Ducks will finish in the bottom 1/2 of the Pac-10, not top. At minimum they lose the 4 road games you mentioned (USC, ASU, Cal and OSU). Throw in a probable loss at Purdue and the Ducks are looking more like 6-5. Also, ranking OSU 6th is a total slap in the face to a team that has DEFIED expectation and finished in the Top 3 in the conference the last 2 years. They should be #3, not the Ducks. File this away: 1) USC, 2) ASU, 3) OSU, 4) AU 5) Cal, 6) UO, 7) UCLA, 8) UW, 9) Stanford, 10) WSU.
6 months ago
Russ-
If the Ducks do win with most of those games, where would you have them? I understand your points, but the Ducks are pretty intact, except for the QB situation. Their secondary is the best in the nation. I have to give them props. I think putting the Ducks one notch above the Bruins is a slap in the face. The Bruins will be lucky to get 4 wins this year...the Ducks will be bowling.
PS....The Beavs at #3? Are you a Beavs fan?
from 6 months ago
Lisa,
Win most of what games? The 4 brutal road contests (5 if you count at Purdue)? Let's not forget Boise St, which is always competitive against Pac-10 teams. If they win those games then I would say they are the best team in the conference. Let's be realistic, though. They wont beat USC in LA (or even Eugene this year), highly unlikely they will be competive against ASU in Phoenix, the Cal game will be tough in Berkely and the Ducks havent beaten the Beavs in Corvallis in the past decade. Secondary best in the nation? According to whom? The misguided columnist? Their run defense allowed over 200 yards against the Beavs in the Civil War without the Beavs best RB. They also allowed teams like UW and AU to run wild over them. If they cant stop the run, what good is a solid secondary? The Ducks will be 6-5 and with luck 7-4. Putting them above the Beavs? How?
6 months ago
Russ-
If the Ducks do win with most of those games, where would you have them? I understand your points, but the Ducks are pretty intact, except for the QB situation. Their secondary is the best in the nation. I have to give them props. I think putting the Ducks one notch above the Bruins is a slap in the face. The Bruins will be lucky to get 4 wins this year...the Ducks will be bowling.
PS....The Beavs at #3? Are you a Beavs fan?
from 6 months ago
Russ-
Misguided columnist? That's OK if you disagree with me, but you don't have to make it personal by name-calling.
Last year I picked Illinois as a sleeper to go to the Rose Bowl, and Notre Dame to only win 4 games. I was called an idiot.
I like the Ducks chances, and yes, they have as good a chance as the Trojans or Sun Devils. They're an excellent defensive team, and if they can solve their QB situation quickly, like USC, they're good to go.
6 months ago
Lisa,
Yes, I am a hardcore Beaver fan. They have finished #3 in the conference the last 2 years and I see nothing to dissuade my thinking that they wont finish in the Top 3 this year. They have one of the more favorable home schedules of any team in the conference (USC, Cal, ASU and UO at Home). I agree, the Bruins are ranked WAY too high. They are in a major rebuilding year and will be lucky to win 4-5 games.
6 months ago
ok...russ...let's make a friendly non-wager on it. I say O has better season than OSU. Name the wager.
6 months ago
I do think the Ducks can finish in the upper half of the Pac-10. But, it really does depend of figuring out their QB play.
The Ducks' D will certainly keep them in many of those tough road games you mention and hopefully the offense can make some plays for a W.
Also, I don't see the Beavs finishing quite a low. They will have their problems on D, but Riley always seems to find a way.
I seem them right up there near the middle of the Pac.
Great article, by the way.
Dennis
from 6 months ago
Civil....Riley is a great coach. He can make adjustments, for sure. I just think there is more talent in Eugene. I can be very blunt at times.....sorry.
I just see such a tremendous talented team, especially on defense, in the Ducks. Thanks! quack, quack.
6 months ago
Lisa, this is a wonderful article. USC will be amazing as always...
6 months ago
no way the beavers finish 8th, they have the 3rd best coach in the league and a managable schedule with usc, cal, oregon and asu at home
from 6 months ago
the problem is, I don't think it will make a difference with USC and ASU at home. Those are two losses right there.
from 5 months ago
You probably didnt think it would make a difference in '06 either when the beavers beat USC.
or the fact that the beavers had the ASU game in the bag last season if the quaterbacks had more experiance and wouldn't have throw so many interceptions.
from 2 months ago
"the problem is, I don't think it will make a difference with USC and ASU at home. Those are two losses right there."
told ya so!
6 months ago
oregon in even seasons lately:
2002: 7-6
2004: 5-6
2006: 7-6
2008: 6-6, maybe 6-7 if they sneak into the hawaii bowl
from 6 months ago
bowl....I'm not one who believes in trends, but that's pretty kewl trend analysis.
6 months ago
You like the other "homer" fans when they are Trojans like you and agree with you. But A Beaver "homer" pops up to say give us some love for how we have finished the last few years and you get all defensive. TELL ME, WHERE DID YOU HAVE US RANKED LAST YEAR? HOW ABOUT THE YEAR BEFORE? I BET IT WASN'T #3. The main reason we even had our first few losses was due to an inordinate amount of picks from some unsteady QB's. Now that they have some games under their belts I don't anticipate them tossing 5 picks a game early on like last year.
Oh and I wouldn't pat myself on the back too much for picking ND to finish low. Whoever thought that you were an idiot for picking ND to only win 4 games... well, they were the idiots. Most anyone who was football savvy last year didn't jump on the yearly ND bandwagon. They have sucked for a long time now and prop their record up by playing a weak schedule every season.
Take the average, non-informed fan's impression of each of these Pac-10 teams and ask them to rank them based on reputation and past performance and you get a list pretty similar to yours. Next time try to not just go on reputation and do some real research.
from 6 months ago
Ryan-
Dang, chill dude. It's over two months away and already you are getting defensive about your Beavs. Sorry...let me spell it out for you.....I think the Ducks have more more talent and are a better team. Period. You don't have to agree, and that's fine. But chill. I had you in the top 20 last year, 4th in Pac-10, FYI.
Re your statement of "They have sucked for a long time now and prop their record up by playing a weak schedule every season."
ND played one of the more difficult schedules last year, and had a #24 SOS last year. Oregon State was #16, so for you to say ND had a weak schedule is pretty inaccurate. Maybe you should do some research before you pop off.
6 months ago
very very good preview.. we all know USC will be up there but as a fan of the Arizona Wildcats and the Zona Zoo, they always play up to their opponent when they come into Tucson.. look for the CATS to throw the ball 50 times a game, I'm not kidding.. Watch out Arizona State when you come down to Tucson because the CATS will be desperate to beat Sparky and the Sun Devils..
6 months ago
Michael....yeah, the Wildcats will be fun to watch this year. You got a good shot to go bowling!
6 months ago
Good Read, Lisa! This was a simple straight forward excellent written piece. As a Die Hard Trojans fan I enjoyed the breakdown of the squad and I'm in agreement. I'll also echo the comments of Reggie & Chris. Great Article.
6 months ago
Lisa, pretty solid top-bottom. I think Stanford may make a move ahead of WSU due to the Harbaugh factor. Also, do not worry about the proverbial chip on the shoulders of many Oregon State fans. They hate the fact that Phil Knight came out of Eugene and has helped the Ducks recruit with the likes of everybody not named USC in the Pac-10 these days. Chip Kelly is as innovative as any offensive coordinator in the country, so give him a fall with Costa, and the kid will be good to go once UW comes to town. I say an 8-4 season is likely with a chance of 9-3 if Costa proves to be the real deal and healthy.
from 6 months ago
You definitely won't have to worry about those Beaver fans when the Beavs beat the Ducks for the 3rd straight year at Reser! They will be on the field celebrating, like they did last year at Autzen!
That's why they play the game and keep the score. Scoreboard >>>> Recruiting ranking. Take that to the bank Uncle Phil.
6 months ago
Lisa, I enjoyed the article and especially like it when the homers get their hackles up and all too often tend to get just a wee bit too personal sometimes to bolster a weak argument. I must now laugh at myself. I thought I knew most of the cfb jargon but I couldn't figure out why when you said a team might do well they might go bowling. lol. Why in the world would they go bowling? Duh! I finally got it after reading it a few times. Thanks for your efforts.
6 months ago
Lisa,
Zach Miller left Arizona State a year ago, he had 44 catches for the Raiders last year. Might want to give that a little fix. Otherwise great article, nice breakdown of the pac 10.
from 6 months ago
Chris....
thanks...I made a note that he wasn't coming back but should have been more specific- they lost their Mackey finalist in 2006. I edited it to be more clear. Thanks for the clarification. :)
6 months ago
Great article Lisa!
6 months ago
Good article for the most part. Being a huge WSU fan, I tend to get a little frustrated when someone from the press messes stuff up about us. CBS is the best at it. Anyway, for the WSU section. There is no Brandon Charles.
Charles Dillon graduated.
Brandon Gibson did not. And he will be back for this year to contend for the best WR award in the PAC
from 6 months ago
Adam-
Ok, you are correct. I messed up Gibson and and Charles' last names. I edited it to say Gibson. Thanks for the heads-up...if I could afford an fact-checker/editor, you would be the man I would hire. Thanks!
6 months ago
The Beavs will be 1 or 2 this season, that is my prediction.
6 months ago
You aren't alone in that prediction!
5 months ago
3 in a row against the ducks! That is all that matters. Go beavs.
5 months ago
The Beavers at 8??? are you kidding?
I could see them possibly not in the top 3 this year but they are deffinalty
going to finish ahead of the ducks, bruins, and huskies.
I think they will finish 4th this season and your doubting is the exact same as all the "analysts" have
been saying.
Here is a little stat for you.
Oregon State is the 2nd winningest team in the Pac-10 over the past two years. How is that not over the hump?
5 months ago
Here's what it is all about. OSU plays on national TV early in the year and what happens, they lay an egg. That's what the nation sees and focuses on. Not the fact that they pull it together and end the season is as hot as any team in the nation. It's OSU's own fault. The portion of the season that the rest of the nation sees, OSU is a middle of the pac team in their conference, which doesn't' get enough respect aside from USC as it is. As OSU fans we see everything and analyze from week to week. When you win early, your name is throw into the pot as "potential bowl teams." When you start 2-3 and get blown out on national TV, you gain no respect. I hate it and it's sad but it's the truth. Until OSU can pull off a great road victory early in the season they'll never be talked about with high regards.
4 months ago
LADIESSSSSSSSSSSS N GENTLEMANNNNNNNNNN U TALKN BOUT THE PAC WHO? TALK BOUT USC AND THATS IT. TEAMS IN CALI AND THE WEST SUK! DONT MEASURE UP LIKE (DANNY DEVITO) ONLY TEAM WORTH MENTION OUT THERE IS FRESNO STATE MY HAT GOES OFF TO THEM IN FB THEY PLAY ANYONE ANYWHERE ANYTIME AND THEY WILL BEAT THE SCARLETT U NO WHOS FIRST GAME THIS YR.
4 months ago
I was at the Duck/Husky opener yesterday, and I must say, I am very excited about this ducks team! The defense just shut down everything that came at them, and contained Locker very well. Much much improved from last season's game at Husky Stadium.
I am very confident that Oregon can start the season 5-0. Utah State provides no threat whatsoever. Boise State? They lost to Washington last season, enough said. Purdue? They started 7-2 but lost the last three games of the regular season, and beat Central Michigan in the Motor City Bowl, but it's Central Michigan folks. Not exactly USC prestige.
Washington State lost their best player in Alex Brink, who broke every passing record while at WSU. Even with Brink, the Ducks shut him down completely!
5-0 to start the season is very likely.
Then we head to USC for basically the only real contest of the season besides ASU, but even against them I predict a wib, because they couldn't protect Carpender, and their offensive line hasn't really got much better.
10-1 and a Rose Bowl berth this season! That's my pick
GO DUCKS!!!!!!
4 months ago
Hey, Lisa, you missed the Bruins completely. I called that upset the other day. No way half of the Pac-10 will beat that coaching staff plus I had a lot of faith in K.C. once he got a baptism under fire. He should be okay from here on out. And not a lot of love for Cal either. I told Tedford to sit Longshore and go with Riley. But no, he wouldn't listen to me. He had to find out the hard way. Anyway, they'll be fine now that he has the right guy at qb. They will finish #2 in the conference, not ASU. Did you check out that game against powerhouse Northern Arizona? Didn't that scare you off? And Arizona's rout of Idaho very interesting. Even though Idaho has nothing, still 70-zip. Wow! Idaho had less than nothing last year and USC could only put 38 on them at the Coliseum. I'm going to give the other Stoops some love and say this is the year he gets over the hump.
So, here's how it looks to me in conference: USC (8-1), Cal(7-2), the Clucks and Arizona (finish in a 3rd place tie, 6-3), UCLA (5-4), ASU(4-5), OSU and Stanford (3-6), WSU (2-7), Udub (0-9)
from 2 months ago
It looks like you, Paul, have missed the Bruins completely.
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