USC will lose to Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Saturday.
Why? you ask.
We'll begin this trial run by looking at the numbers—the tale of the tape so to speak. It may be the reason the odds makers are willing to give the daunted Trojans three points.
According to their website, the NCAA keeps stats on 17 specific areas. Let's break them down now.
| Oregon |
| USC |
| Edge |
Rushing Offense | 294.43 |
| 202.29 |
| OR |
Passing Offense | 256.43 |
| 232.43 |
| OR |
Passing Efficiency | 162.34 |
| 129.91 |
| OR |
Sacks Allowed | 1.71 |
| 1.43 |
| USC |
Total Offense | 550.86 |
| 434.71 |
| OR |
Scoring Offense | 46.57 |
| 34.57 |
| OR |
Rushing Defense | 143 |
| 64.14 |
| USC |
Today's Must ReadsPass Efficiency Defense | 116.23 |
| 97.35 |
| USC |
Pass Defense | 253.29 |
| 188 |
| USC |
Scoring Defense | 22.57 |
| 16.57 |
| USC |
Total Defense | 396.29 |
| 252.14 |
| USC |
Sacks | 2.86 |
| 2.43 |
| OR |
Tackles for Loss | 8.43 |
| 6.14 |
| OR |
Turnover Margin | 0.71 |
| -0.57 |
| OR |
Net Punting | 37.33 |
| 31.62 |
| OR |
Punt Returns | 8.35 |
| 6.96 |
| OR |
Kickoff Returns | 25.19 |
| 21.45 |
| OR |
Oregon has the edge in 11 of the 17 areas—and they faced better opponents than USC.
USC's opponents have a combined record of 15-28, or a 28 percent win margin. Oregon's opponents combined record is 27-23—54 percent. While neither team can boast impressive opponents' records, there is a glaring difference between 28 and 54 percent. This leads to the SOS ranking of approximately 120 for USC and 26 for Oregon. Also, USC does not have a top-50 win while Oregon has three.
Finally, if we look at the opponents these teams have in common, the picture becomes much clearer.
|
| Oregon |
| USC | ||||
Washington |
| 55 |
| 34 |
| 27 |
| 24 |
WSU |
| 53 |
| 7 |
| 47 |
| 14 |
Stanford |
| 55 |
| 31 |
| 23 |
| 24 |
Average |
| 54 |
| 24 |
| 32 |
| 21 |
Although Oregon scored an average of 22 more points than USC, their scoring defense was only three points worse than USC on average.
Who will be playing and who will be standing on the sidelines will also factor into this game. But, the bottom line is, even if USC scores 30 or more points, the Duck offense will find a way to score even more. They will be playing at home and their confidence is at an all time high.
Final score: Oregon 38, USC 30
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11 months ago
Now thats a breakdown I can live with and agree with. OR41-USC27
11 months ago
I disagree with your forecast mate. Although I do like your format for laying-out the stats and explaining how they back your opinion.
My prediction:
USC wins this one by four.
11 months ago
Nice call Leon.
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