After looking at mock drafts, and listening to draft analysts, it is finally time to come out and say that Tim Tebow will not be selected either 10th or 11th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I will go out and say this—the Jaguars only possibilities of drafting Tim Tebow includes:
1. Trading out of their spot to the end of the 1st round and gaining another draft pick. Perhaps at pick 28-32, Tebow may be worth the shot and money.
2. If Tebow falls to the third round. The Jaguars do not possess a 2nd round draft pick in this year's draft (it was traded away last year to the Patriots to get the draft choice that selected CB Derek Cox).
Aside from these two possibilities, Tim Tebow will not be selected in the early-mid 1st round.
Coming off of a season where the Jaguars were much more successful than anyone thought they would be, the Jaguars have needs that can be addressed nicely with their draft choice. A quarterback in the 1st round of this year's draft for the team, just doesn't really make any sense.
A couple guys that might fall into the Jaguars spot include two safeties. Those two being Taylors Mays from USC and Earl Thomas from Texas. Reggie Nelson was a rather large embarrassment last season, and the Jaguars cannot go into 2010 with the same secondary. Both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady toyed with the Jaguars defensive backfield last season.
Of course, fans would love to hear that Eric Berry could fall to this spot, but that is highly unlikely. Berry is looking to be a sure top 5-8 pick.
Another position with a couple of possibilities is defensive tackle. Pot Roast, also known as Terrence Knighton, played well for a rookie last season, but if a guy like Gerald McCoy fell to the Jaguars, he would be very difficult to pass up. The other guy, no not Ndamukong Suh, but Brian Price of UCLA, could also be an improvement in a defensive line that needs some help.
Guys that have been put in to a bunch of mock drafts that could be decent fits include DE Derrick Morgan, DE Carlos Dunlap, and WR Dez Bryant. The Jaguars will surely hesitate to draft another defensive end, so that may rule out both Morgan and Dunlap, unless they show something truly special to the scouts. Bryant should be considered a highly-doubtful selection because, one, his personality and off-field problems will scare the Jaguars away, and two, the Jaguars proved last year that they do not select wide receivers this high in the draft.
Here is where it may get interesting. With plenty of time remaining, and stocks dropping and rising, how will quarterbacks play out in the 2010 NFL draft?
It seems like the first two quarterbacks to go will be Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen. In time we will be able to tell who gains the advantage over the other, but I believe that Bradford will be a top 10 pick. The only reason he lost any value is because of being injured, and if he can prove he is 100% fully healed, he will not last past Seattle at pick six.
If this is the case, Clausen would more than likely get picked by pick nine, which is the Buffalo Bills. This, of course, depends on what happens to Clausen's value from now until the draft. If Clausen does not get picked by the Jaguars selection, would the Jaguars have any interest? If Clausen really has the potential that many believe he has had all along, then perhaps he is the quarterback of the Jaguars' future. Not Tim Tebow. Colt McCoy should be drafted ahead of Tebow as well.
By now it is obvious that the only reason Tim Tebow would get selected by Jacksonville in the 1st round is simply because of ticket sales. If it was truly based on talent and possible skill in the NFL, Tebow wouldn't be a 1st round pick. Tebow has already struggled in Senior Bowl practices, and has shown that his mechanics need more work than a 1st round quarterback should. As a Jaguar fan and follower, I simply think that the team would be laughed at if they selected him as high as 10th overall.
Don't get me wrong, Tim Tebow is one of the greatest college players to have possibly ever played, but that does not translate into greatness in the NFL. If the Jaguars had their 2nd round pick still, then maybe that would be a perfect spot to select him, but they no longer hold that pick. At this point—Tim Tebow should be erased from the mind of all Jacksonville Jaguars fans. Tebow will not be in a Jaguars uniform come 2010.
So who will the Jaguars take with their 1st round pick? To narrow it down to five in order it would be:
5) Brian Price DT/UCLA - Price is a large, dominating defensive tackle who would pair very nicely with big John Henderson. If the Jaguars determine that Price is not a reach at their pick, he could very well be a Jaguar next season.
4) Derrick Morgan DE/Georgia Tech - Although it is hard to believe that the Jaguars will select another defensive end after selecting Derrick Harvey (complete bust so far), Morgan may just be too special to pass up here. The Jaguars have a horrible pass-rush defense.
3) Joe Haden CB/Florida - What a cornerback! Haden is a dominate force and will be the first cornerback off the board. Perhaps we could move Derek Cox to safety, but all I know is that the Jaguars need help in their defensive backfield and with how often Rashean Mathis has been getting hurt, grabbing another solid cornerback would definitely help this team.
2. Earl Thomas S/Texas - Thomas is a great safety, and is a great pick for the Jaguars. The Jaguars need to either get help rushing the passer or shutting down the receivers, and Thomas will only help.
1. Gerald McCoy DT/Oklahoma - If McCoy possibly fell to the Jaguars spot, he would have to be the pick. He is far too dominating of a defensive tackle. Imagine the defensive line with John Henderson and McCoy stuffing the middle. This would only mean for a better run-defense, and pass-rush.
It's still very, very early to truly know who the Jaguars may lean towards. Stocks will rise and fall rapidly as we get closer to the draft. The only thing that should stay certain from now until then is that Tim Tebow will not be selected by the Jaguars in the early-mid 1st round.