Gilbert Arenas was just offered a deal worth $127 million over six years, but is he worth it?
For starters, of the seven years that he has been a player in this league, he has only played one full season. He played just 13 games last season due to bad knees and surgery.
Andre Miller, by comparison, has been in the NBA for nine seasons, and has played at least 80 games in every one of them.
Secondly, Arenas is a point guard. Despite the name, the point guard's job is not to score a lot of points. It is to make your teammates better! And he doesn't do that.
In the 2006-2007 season he averaged 28.4 points a game. That's pretty good, right? Wrong. He is a point guard. He should be passing, but averaged only six assists per game. That is not what a point guard is supposed to do.
Meanwhile, Andre Miller averaged 9.1 assists per game, and he isn't even a great player. He is not getting paid $127 million for that. (I already had Andre Miller's stats pulled up, so what the heck?)
Thirdly, Arenas is very turnover prone. He averaged 3.8 turnovers a game in the 07-08 season, and in the 06-07 season he averaged 3.2.
So, I ask you America...is Gilbert Arenas worth $127 million? I don't think so.
He is getting paid more per year than Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, way more than Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and, oh yeah, Andre Miller.
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6 months ago
Wow, that is a huge sum to pay, even Shaq may not have got that much, nor even Michael Jordan with all his advt. money. You are right! Very good analysis Brandon! One more thing, I am glad to see a young writer. Great going, keep up the good work! One day soon we will see you on ESPN or Fox Sports!
from 6 months ago
You're right, he is getting paid more per year than Shaq. Thanks for the compliment and becoming my fan. I appreciate it.
6 months ago
I don't think Arenas is worth it, however, 74, 80, 80, and 82 games in four of Arenas seasons. Those are full seasons.
By your logic Kobe has played three full seasons, Lebron has played none, Dirk with two, Nash with two, Kidd has played three, Williams one, and Paul none, to use your examples.
from 6 months ago
my bad dude, I didn't realize you were 13.
from 6 months ago
That's okay, I take all criticism with open arms.
6 months ago
Good article. Arenas is extremely overrated IMO. I got nothing against him or the Wiz, but paying a 6-foot guy who looks for his own at the expense of winning should not be in the equation for a team that wants to contend. Just look at other selfish paydirt winners like Marbury....
from 6 months ago
Thanks. You make a good point.
6 months ago
hard to say, though, and maybe because of this past season-NO! but it sounds about right, given how it usually goes. it's always someone. look at what the Cavs gave Anderson Varejao not too long ago. he was out on the free market and NO ONE else picked him up. he also went on to prove that he WASN"T worth it. everyone else knew but the Cavs-the curse of Clev., man my home town can't do anything right, even when Lebron James tries to help out. his days are numbered here too, as he will eventually give up on THEM!!! what a shame. maybe the Cavs should've waited a little, passed on "Andie" and given it to Gilbert instead.
6 months ago
I wouldn't pay him $127 Million of YOUR money!
6 months ago
This is a very nice article in which you raise a number of key points. Maybe the Wizards are thinking about ticket and merchandise sales. Andre Miller, even though he may play the point better, does not sell a lot of jerseys and caps. Agent Zero does. He also "talks the talk" a lot more than Miller (and most NBA players!) and generates a lot of hype before every game (even though he sometimes struggles to "walk the walk" once the game is underway). That hype may, in turn, sell more tickets, which increases the revenue of the club.
In the end, it may be a lot of money to pay one player with weaknesses in his game, but his marketing strength may compensate for that.
from 6 months ago
Thank you. It feels good to actually get some positive feedback once in a while.
6 months ago
Please don't mention Andre Miller and Gilbert Arenas in the same breath.
I'm tired about people saying $127 million is too much. What good is it if you hold on to most of that money but are not in the playoffs or relevant in the East? You'll be like the Clippers were for all those years.
Gilbert Arenas made the Wizards important to DC again. I know because I live here. The last four years, even though we haven't gotten past the second round, have been the best for Washington basketball fans. Our team is playing meaningful games after the All Star game. It wasn't like that before and the $127 million is not too much to pay over six years when you consider the hype and excitement he brings to the franchise.
Ask yourself this; if you don't pay Gilbert and let him walk, what the hell is the alternative?
Exactly.
from 6 months ago
Baron Davis was in free agency. They could have signed him and had much more money to spend on other players.
6 months ago
$127mil.? Are you friggin joking me? first of all he's not worth it and ssecond of all think of how selfish that is of him to take up so much cap when the wiz could get a whole lot better paying other people.
6 months ago
Baron Davis has played an average of 52 games over the last seven seasons. You really want to sign him? How many times has he led his team to the playoffs?
Your biggest mistake was writing this:
"Thirdly, Arenas is very turnover prone. He averaged 3.8 turnovers a game in the 07-08 season, and in the 06-07 season he averaged 3.2."
When you're trying to point out a trend, make sure you mention that Arenas played all of 13 games in 2007-08. Don't paint misleading pictures.
You also failed to mention that since Arenas arrived, the Wizards have been in the playoffs four out of five years (including four straight). Prior to that, they had only two appearances since 1988. Also, Arenas helped Washington to their first playoff series win since 1982.
So yeah, I'd say keeping the guy who turned your franchise around after nearly a quarter century of being the laughing stock of the league is well worth it.
from 6 months ago
Brandon has a valid point with respect to the turnover issue. Since you seem a little touchy about looking at this past year's statistics, I will look at his entire career. So far, Arenas has averaged 5.5 assists and 3.33 turnovers during his seven years in the NBA, giving him an overall assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.65 (in case you don't realize it, that is not a very good total).
To gain some perspective on just how poor that is, you should know that Gilbert's 1.65 ratio would have placed him outside the Top 50 point guards in the NBA for that statistic in any given year of his career! That means a number of 2nd (and possibly 3rd) string point guards protect and distribute the ball better than Arenas. For your information, Jose Calderon led the league at 5.38 in 2007-08 and Beno Udrih (who?) came in at number 50 with an ratio of 1.91.
Brandon was not looking for a trend with his data; he was providing a pathetic snapshot of "Agent Zero's" entire career. Face facts, this guy should not be playing point in the NBA with his deficient skills in this area deemed essential to quality point guards.
from 6 months ago
You are my MAN, GAZ!!! You go boy! You should have written this article!
6 months ago
Yet despite his turnover ratio, the Wizards have had the most success in his five years there than they had in the previous 20. Does that make him worth it? Or because Beno Udrih's superior ratio make Arenas any less valuable.
from 6 months ago
DID YOU EVEN READ THOSE STATISTICS, IDIOT! THE TOP 50! 50! YOU MUST BE A FREAKIN ARENAS FAN. HE IS NOT A TRUE POINT GUARD.
from 6 months ago
How good would the Wizards be if they had a truer (and better) player at the point, someone who can actually set his teammates up for shots and protect the ball from being turned over? Arenas definitely plays more like a shooting guard, so having someone else actually play point they way is should be played would help them immensely.
The way it stands now, Arenas shoots (and misses) a surprisingly large number of shots for a point guard. In 2006-07, his most recent 'healthy' season, Arenas took 1,548 shots or approximately 21 shots/game. Steve Nash, by comparison, took 971 shots during 2006-07 or roughly 13 shots/game. While Nash made 517 of his attempts (or roughly 8 per game), Arenas made just 647 of his attempts (or roughly 9 per game).
So, what does this tell us? Arenas also effectively turns the ball over to the defense through his comparatively large number of missed shots. While Nash missed an average of 5 shots per game in 2006-07, Arenas missed an average of 12 shots per game. That's 7 more opportunities per game for the defense to rebound and take possession of the ball. When you also factor in Gilbert's extraordinarily low assist-to-turnover ratio, we see a point guard he gives the ball back to the opposition a LOT of times every game.
Worth $127 million? As I mentioned above, Arenas may worth that much not because of his abilities as a point guard, but because of his "brand" recognition. He sells tee-shirts and tickets better than most point guards in the league. In that category, at least, he is a Top 5 PG.
6 months ago
Correction: Nash's average made shots per game was only 7, not 8 as I mistakenly typed. Overall, that still means that Arenas gives the defense (through his higher number of missed shots per game) 6 more opportunities to rebound and take possession of the ball.
6 months ago
The Wizards are always ranked near the top of the NBA in least turnovers per game. Taking care of the ball is not a problem for the Wizards, so stop harping on it. It is one of the team's greatest strengths; maybe their greatest. And lebron averages 3.3 turnovers in his career and only one more assist than Arenas and he handles the ball just as much.
And your efficiency argument. Does Steve Nash ever get to the line? Nope. Arenas is a league leader every year.
And Gilbert is in top three most clutch players in the leaugue, with Kobe and I hate to say it, Lebron.
So is Gilbert worth a max contract, considering Rashard lewis got one, absolutley!!
from 6 months ago
That was an incredibly stupid comment. You just pointed out that LeBron, the scoring small forward, averages more assists per game than the point guard that is getting paid more than LeBron! Not to mention that they have the same amount of turnovers.
6 months ago
I think you're all missing the point here. Of course Nash takes fewer shots, he has AMARE STOUDEMIRE in the low post! I think Antwan Jamison is certainly a very good player and someone the Wiz need but Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas, these guys are just a waste of space. Arenas is expected to be everything for that team and that has taken a heavy toll on his body. I think with Arenas, Butler and Jamison they have the beginning of a good team but they need to trim the fat and find a James Posey that can defend AND score consistently off the bench.
So is Arenas worth the money, probably since he generates more revenue for a franchise that was best known for George Muresan until recently. However, it could ultimately cost them if they have no money to attack the free agent market.
from 6 months ago
Based on your logic, I assume you would expect Steve Nash to start jacking up 20+ low percentage shots per game if the Suns did not have a low post player as good as Stoudemire?
C'mon, if anyone is missing the point here it is you. Nash is a true point guard. He finds open teammates, he protects the ball, he does not look for his shot first and foremost. Arenas is the opposite. He looks for his shot first and foremost, even if it is not a high percentage one (42% career field goal shooting). He plays as a shooting guard.
Does that mean he is a poor player? Absolutely not. He is a great shooting guard.
Does that mean he is a poor point guard? Well, yes. His incredibly low assist to turnover ratio (and 20+ shot attempts per game) are not characteristics one associates with a quality point guard.
Do I think Arenas is worth the money? I guess so, as long as the Wizards make that money back through ticket sales and merchandising. When actors are paid $25 million for 6 weeks of work on a movie set, then who is to judge what someone is worth. Presumably such fortunate people bring in more money than is spent on them.
6 months ago
Ben, you make great points.
The whole turnover gripe is so overblown. If you want to knock Arenas for turnovers, then knock Wade for having more than 4 per game the last two years; knock Steve Nash, Deron Williams and Lebron James for being 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the league for turnovers in a game.
When you handle the ball as often as the aforementioned players do, as well as remain the number one target in their game prep and scouting reports, you're going to have turnovers. It's a fact.
Arenas is worth the $127 mil because he makes the franchise RELEVANT. Everything is about revenues and cashflow. Arenas makes them competitive ON the court, and puts money in the owners pocket via fan interest and tv ratings.
from 6 months ago
The issue is assists to turnovers, which is a more accurate measure of a point guard's abilities and worth to his team. You can't just look at turnovers in isolation; nor can you look at just assists in isolation. Both Nash and Williams had assist to turnover ratios last season greater than 3, so by drawing attention to those players you are only confirming my point.
You also oddly draw attention to Lebron James, who does not even play the point position. Few would consider assist to turnover ratios an accurate measure of a forward's worth. Incidentally, for his career James has a 2.0 assist to turnover ratio compared to the 1.65 of Arenas.
To suggest that this issue of assists to turnovers is "overblown" for a point guard reflects a somewhat limited knowledge of the game. This, in fact, happens to be one of the key measures of their effectiveness in that position. It measures, in essence, their ability to run the offense, to find teammates for open shots and to protect the ball.
Finally, thank you for taking my point about Arenas' worth being related to his marketing value.
6 months ago
I wouldn't give the guy $20 million.
I hate to say it, but after watching the Wizards many times in Arenas' absence, they do player better without him.
When he was injured, I saw ball movement and some players in a defensive stance. Without Arenas, the Wizards are still not a playoff performer, but at least there is less ball stoppage.
I repsect that Arenas has risen from draft anonimity to become a marquee player. However, does hitting a few buzzer beaters in one season and the ability to shoot your way to 30-40 points entitle you to $127 million.
The guy has never won a playoff series, and his fault or not, that makes him nowhere near worth the money the Wizards are throwing at him.
from 6 months ago
Wrong. Arenas has won a playoff series. 2005, 4-2 versus Chicago.
from 6 months ago
Robert wrote: "I hate to say it, but after watching the Wizards many times in Arenas' absence, they do player better without him."
I couldn't agree more. It's no surprise that this year the differential between points scored and points given up was only -.3. They may have missed Gilbert's offense, but they certainly did not miss his "defense". Read below....
I found this great Fantasy Basketball site that let's you sort teams by position to see how they rank VS the rest of the NBA at the specified position in a range of statistical categories.
Here is the address: http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/washington-wizards/team/rankings/05/30/12
When I sorted by point guards for the Wizards, I learned an interesting fact: They ranked 1st at that position in defense this year. 1st in the entire NBA at point guard for defense!!!
What about previous years when Gilbert played point? See below:
2006-07: 26th (Ouch! Man-up, Gilbert!)
2005-06: 6th (Not too shabby...)
2004-05: 15th
2003-04: 24th (Hands up, Agent Zero)
This data supports my belief that Gilbert at point is not a good idea. He jacks up long, low percentage shots (after which his immediate defender probably grabs the rebound and takes it to the other end for an uncontested lay-up) and he turns the ball over way too often given his low number of assists (which again allows the defender making the steal an easy breakaway to the other end).
6 months ago
Gaz... you said, "To suggest that this issue of assists to turnovers is "overblown" for a point guard reflects a somewhat limited knowledge of the game. This, in fact, happens to be one of the key measures of their effectiveness in that position. It measures, in essence, their ability to run the offense, to find teammates for open shots and to protect the ball."
Hasn't the Wizards offense been amongst the top in the league for a few years straight? Their defense has been the problem; not Arenas' ability to run the offense. They were 3rd highest scoring team in the East in 2004-05, First in 2005-06, First in 2006-07. With Arenas out this past season, they dropped to fifth.
Offense isn't the problem. It's team defense. And to quote you, not knowing the real problem of the Wizards "reflects a somewhat limited knowledge of the game".
from 6 months ago
Shaun wrote: "Hasn't the Wizards offense been amongst the top in the league for a few years straight? ...Offense isn't the problem. It's team defense."
First of all, I never suggested that the Wizards had a problem on offense. What I said was that Arenas has a real problem running the offense as effectively as his peers (other point guards in the NBA).
The Wizards favor an up-tempo, run-and-gun, West-coast style of play. Gilbert brings the ball up the floor quickly, looks for his shot, and typically fires one off if he's got a sliver of daylight to do so. He rarely hits his teammates for open shots or runs a set, half-court offense. Sure, the Wizards score a lot of points, but they (like other teams that play this way) also give up a lot of points.
If he was a true point, Arenas would be averaging double-digit assists under this style of play. He would be able to find a lot of open teammates on the break with a clear lane to the basket. Unfortunately, Gilbert plays with a shooting guard mentality. He looks for his shot first, second and third. That's why he jacks up 20+ shots every game with such a low shooting percentage.
I'm sure this flashy style of play makes fans like you all excited, but rarely does it win championships. Just look at the Celtics (of this year), the Spurs (of the past several years) and the Pistons (of the past several years). None of them worry about scoring 100 points a game as a team, none of them have players that really care if they knock down 30 points every night, as long as the team wins. They care more about holding their opponents under 85 points. A key part of their strategy for achieving this involves running a half-court offense, moving the ball inside and out as well as around the perimeter, looking for whatever team mate has the best look at the basket.
Until you and the Wizards realize that the way they play offense creates problems for them on defense, then the club win never get out of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs. Forced long shots create long rebounds, which the defense can turn into fast break opportunities. Pushing the ball up the court at every opportunity in the drive to score 100+ points/game means that a turnover can also cost you at the other end, because none of your players are back in a set defense.
6 months ago
Oops Shaun, I guess he did win one. Good for him. He should call up Tracy McGrady and tell him how he did it. The supposed 'T-Mac' could use a lesson.
There is still no statistic that will convince me this guy is worth $127 million. Then again, I don't think any athlete, even Michael Jordan in his prime, should earn that kind of money.
from 6 months ago
I agree that $127 million is an absurd amount of money. But you have to realize that these contract offers are all in proportion to earnings, revenue etc. Market value is what it is. Rashard Lewis can get a max deal; why can't Arenas?
Also, "one man's trash is another man's treasure". Arenas may not be worth $127 million to any other team in the league; but to Washington, he might be. Being from the area, I know the interest he has generated in Wizards' basketball. You see his jersey everywhere and he is just as popular in this town as Clinton Portis (Given that DC has always been a Football first city, and the fact that no one cared about basketball for over two decades here, that's saying something).
If you choose not to pay Gilbert $127 million, he'll sign with another team. If he does that, think about the negative impact it would have on the franchise's immediate success, sales, and media interest. Everything is about dollars and cents. Paying Arenas $127 mil is a small amount when you consider the $$$ he brings to DC Basketball in other ways.
6 months ago
to me he is not worth 127 million because frankly he hasn't won anything
from 6 months ago
That's the best argument i've seen so far out of all 42 comments. why should anyone get paid $127 if they don't win anything? It makes no sense. so what if he wom ONE playoff series? if you get paid $127 you should have some rings on your fingers.
6 months ago
Well I think everyone is trying to argue different things. I was only trying to point out like Shaun is saying that Arenas generates relevancy. Washington would never get games televised without Arenas and they certainly would not get as many fans. Of course this is a ridiculous amount of money but this is the sports world in which we live.
Obviously Arenas is not Steven Nash, Chris Paul or Deron Williams. I don't think anyone is trying to argue that. He is, by all definitions, a combo guard and more of a shooting guard than a point guard. I don't think the fact he turns the ball over makes him less worthy of a big payday. It's the free throws he missed against Cleveland a few years ago which should make you worry. It's the fact that he's injury-prone as the article pointed out. The fact that his team has only won one playoff series is the risk you take by standing pat instead of making big moves.
Arenas is not a selfish player, he makes do with the talent around him. If this team had more than Antwan Jamison in the front court I do think his assist to turnover ratio would be better. You may not like my theory Gaz but yes Steve Nash would shoot the ball more without Stoudemire in the game. They're in completely different situations and cannot really be compared. I only brought it up because other people did.
So, yes Gaz, Arenas is not a top 5 point guard but as you pointed out he is still a good player that means alot to the Washington community. If the Wizards were to get rid of him and wanted to keep any shred of dignity they needed a big name to replace him. That didn't happen so they wanted to secure their biggest star.
I mean, at least they're not shelling out the big bucks to Kwame Brown this time around :-).
from 6 months ago
Your points are well taken. I think you are certainly right with respect to us addressing different issues. Thanks.
6 months ago
Great pissing match here ... 5 Starz.
6 months ago
good article, Theres no doubt that he shoudn't be getting paid more than kobe, lebron, or nash.
6 months ago
This is the best Wizards team since Rod Strickland was running the point. lol
6 months ago
As a scorer, Arenas scores 10 percent more points/fg attempt than league average. That may not sound significant, but considering the amount of shots he takes, it is.
Arenas' stat-line is very similar to Allen Iverson during his prime. Sure, the Wizards will never with a ring with him running the point or any semblance of it, but he does make them relevant.
I've been a huge Iverson detractor for years, but without Iverson the 76'ers wouldn't have made the playoffs, let alone made the finals.
Is he worth a max contract?
Theoretically a max contract should only be given to one player, the best player at his given position, but given the broken business model in the NBA, the ridiculously structured salary cap, and the reward given for overpaying your own players, it makes sense to sign Arenas to what he got, per today's NBA economics.
6 months ago
Good Article, Brandon. You bring up some valid points. I don't think he is worth that kinda 'jack' but the guy is a very talented combo guard and star in this league. He reportedly signed for $111 Million. He is a star guard for the Wizards and he brings out the fans puts butts in the seats, despite what we feel, his employers signed him to the deal. It isn't a stretch to say that he is overpaid but several players in the league are. Every team needs star players, he is the star player for the Wizards who are a better team with him when he's healthy.
about 1 month ago
haha. i know i am late to this whole article, but hey, looks like Shaun and the rest of the Arenas lovers ended up being. The dude is hurt again and that money is going to waste.
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