Who Gets the Last Champions League Spot in England: A Quick Analysis

Debasish DuttaroyCorrespondent IMarch 29, 2010

CHICAGO - MARCH 03: UEFA Champions League Trophy at the Heineken Brings UEFA Champions League Trophy at Fado Irish Pub on March 3, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Barry Brecheisen/Getty Images for Heineken)
Barry Brecheisen/Getty Images

As of Sunday 03/28/2010 there are 3 teams running for the final Champions League position. It is all interestingly poised. The 3 teams in contention are Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Liverpool.

First and foremost, let's take a look at the points tally as of 03/28:
Tottenham Hotspur - 58
Liverpool FC - 54
Manchester City - 53

Next important factor is, what are games left for each of them? Let's take a look at each of these 3

1. Tottenham Hotspur
Sunderland (a)
Arsenal (h)
Chelsea (h)
Man Utd (a)
Bolton (h)
Man City (a)
Burnley (a)        

2. Liverpool FC
Birmingham (a)
Fulham (h)
West Ham (h)
Burnley (a)
Chelsea (h)
Hull City (a)        

3. Manchester City
Wigan (h)
Burnley (a)
Birmingham (h)
Man Utd (h)
Arsenal (a)
Aston Villa (h)
Tottenham (h)
West Ham (a)

Finally some predictions will help us get an idea who of these 3 has got a good chance of grabbing the final spot.
Here are my predcitions for each of the 3 teams and their remaining games. Needless to mention that there are few games I am not sure about and could be wrong in my prediction.

Tottenham Hotspur - W,L,L,L,W,L,W
Total points - 67

Liverpool FC - D,W,W,W,D,W
Total Points - 68

Manchester City - W,W,W,L,L,D,W,W
Total points - 69

So based on this prediction, Manchester City goes through. However, as can be seen, the difference are just of 1 point between each of them. Some critical games in my opinion, which can change things completely are:

1. Liverpool vs Birmingham - I have assumed this to be a draw. However, if by any chance Liverpool can come up with a win in this one, they are up to 70.
2. Manchester City vs Tottenham - I have predicted a Man City win. Any other result could make it very interesting. A draw, for example, would make Tottenham at 68 and put Man City back to 67.
3. Also, I have predicted 3 losses for Tottenham against 3 big boys, which may not happen. Particularly, since 2 of them are home games.

Overall, if I go by gut feeling, I think Liverpool actually has a very good chance. They need to kill the so called small teams. Its just a gut feeling that both Tottenham and Man City will drop a lot in next few games. Especially, Man city does not look  convincing at all. Tottenham has been knocking on the door for sometime. But may be its Liverpool who will get it.