Tebow's Flight From Florida Booked

Steve PaulContributor IApril 11, 2010

NEW ORLEANS - JANUARY 01:  Quarterback Tim Tebow #15 of the Florida Gators stands on the field during the Allstate Sugar Bowl against the Cincinnati Bearcats at the Louisana Superdome on January 1, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

You can quote me on this: Tim Tebow will not be wearing a Jacksonville Jaguars uniform next summer.  He won't even be in a Florida NFL team's jersey.  Tebow's days as the quarterback in his home state of Florida are done, at least for now.

The first opportunity for Tebow to be drafted by a Florida team is at selection three, by the Tampa Bay Bucs.  This is clearly not going to happen given the fact that they drafted Josh Freeman in the first round last year and it is likely that Raheem Morris is going to get one of the stud defensive tackles in the draft.

Next comes the Jaguars at selection ten.  Many "experts" are saying that Wayne Weaver needs to sell seats, and that Tebow will be the right solution.  They may be right at first.  Tebowmania will run wild in Jacksonville, at least until they pay that money to see No. 15 on the sidelines for the first two years.

GM Gene Smith has vowed to take the best available player in the draft.  Last year was his first running at the helm, and he proved to stick to that philosophy.  With the eighth overall pick, they selected offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, and then in the second round they selected offensive tackle Ebon Britton.  Who does that?  Obviously somebody who sticks with the best player available strategy.

It paid dividends as well.  Both Monroe and Britton have established themselves as the bookend tackles for years to come.  Smith also added two rookie starters in cornerback Derek Cox and defensive tackle Terrance Knighton.  The man knows how to draft.  So with the tenth selection in the draft, we will not, I repeat, NOT be hearing Tim Tebow's name called.

That leaves Tebow for the Miami Dolphins in the first round.  They pick two spots later, at No. 12.  With up-and-coming quarterback Chad Henne running the show, Parcells will not even think of taking Tebow with his pick.

So it is established that Tebow will not be a first round selection by a Florida team.  He probably won't be a first round selection for any team.  So that leaves the option for Jacksonville to grab him in the second round, right?

Very unlikely.  The Jaguars traded away their second round pick to the Patriots in last year's draft to acquire Derek Cox in the third round.  Tebow is expected to go in the second round, so how will the Jaguars pick him up?

At ten, the Jaguars have been mentioning their intentions to trade down, and acquire extra picks, maybe a second round.  But why would a team trade up to ten?  The only likely scenario is if Jimmy Clausen is still on the board.

The Jaguars themselves maybe even take Clausen, which would eliminate the possibility of Tebow to Jacksonville.  If they don't take Clausen, it may be likely that the 49ers or Seahawks attempt to trade up and take him there.

This would give the Jaguars the 13th or 14th overall pick, and maybe a second rounder.  They could take the beloved Tebow there, but once again, the only way I see this possible is if Clausen slides down to their pick at ten, which I do not feel is a likely scenario.

To make a long story short, Tebow will not be in a Jaguars uniform.  The best way to sell tickets is to win, and by taking him with the tenth overall pick will not accomplish that goal.  Gm Gene knows that.  For the Florida faithful, I'm sorry for you, but don't expect to see the name Tebow on a teal jersey once the 2010 NFL draft is over.