I'm going to break down the first week of games for the SEC in order of their likelihood of winning. I will start with the SEC team with the lowest chance of pulling out a victory and end with the SEC's easiest "gimme." I will also include some pertinent information regarding both teams and finally give you a prediction.
Alabama vs. Clemson (35 percent)
8:00 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA (Cap. 71,228)
LAST YEAR: Alabama: 7-6 (4-4); Clemson: 9-3 (5-3)
LAST MEETING: Alabama won @ home 56-0 in 1975
PRESEASON RANK: Alabama—24th(AP); Clemson—9th
EARLY LINE: Clemson by five
ALABAMA OFFENSE: B, ALABAMA DEFENSE: C
CLEMSON OFFENSE: B, CLEMSON DEFENSE: A
Except for a questionable offensive line, on paper Clemson looks to have all the pieces. Playmakers at the skill positions combined with a stout defense will give Alabama trouble.
Alabama looks to circle the wagons after last year’s debacle in the second half of the season. Nick Saban’s defense is not where it needs to be yet, but his offense can be pretty good this year—just not in this game. Alabama hopes these will be the only Tigers they lose to this year.
Clemson, 34-24
What it would take for Alabama to win: Some leaders to step up quickly on the defense. Limited mistakes from John Parker Wilson.
Vanderbilt @ Miami (OH) (40 percent)
7:30 pm Thursday, Aug. 28; Yager Stadium, Miami, OH (24,386)
LAST YEAR: Vandy: 5-7 (2-6); Miami: 6-7 (5-2)
LAST MEETING: Vandy won @ home 24-13 last year
PRESEASON RANK: Vandy—anywhere from 55-78; Miami—anywhere from 70-92
EARLY LINE: Miami (OH) by three
VANDY OFFENSE: F; VANDY DEFENSE: B
MIAMI OFFENSE: F; MIAMI DEFENSE: C
This should be a competitive game. There's very similar team makeup here—both offenses don’t look to be any better after last year’s were simply anemic. Both teams' playmakers are on the defensive side of ball. The game ought to be a defensive battle with Vanderbilt’s defense the player of the day.
Vandy, 16-13
What it would take for Miami to win: Pedestrian play from its offense. Home field backing.
Kentucky @ Louisville (40 percent)
3:30 pm Sunday, Aug. 31; Papa John's Stadium (The Oven), Louisville, KY (42,000)
LAST YEAR: Kentucky: 8-5 (3-5); Louisville: 6-6 (3-4)
LAST MEETING: Kentucky won @ home 40-34 last year
PRESEASON RANK: Kentucky—anywhere from 52-66; Louisville—anywhere from 46-64
EARLY LINE: Louisville by four
KENTUCKY OFFENSE: D; KENTUCKY DEFENSE: C
LOUISVILLE OFFENSE: C; LOUISVILLE DEFENSE: D
Louisville tries to bounce back after last season's struggles, and Kentucky is trying not to take a step back this year. If played on a neutral field, it’s pretty much a pick’em game. I’ll cowardly take Louisville with the home field advantage, and I’ll take a slice of sausage and mushroom.
Louisville, 24-23
What it would take for Kentucky to win: Their defense to play like it can as long as their quarterback (whoever it’ll be) doesn’t stink up the joint completely.
Tennessee @ UCLA (70 percent)
8:00 pm Monday, Sep. 1; Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA (91,136)
LAST YEAR: Tennessee: 10-4 (6-2); UCLA: 6-6 (5-4)
LAST MEETING: Tennessee won @ UCLA 30-24 in 1997
PRESEASON RANK: Tennessee—18th, UCLA—anywhere from 37-54
EARLY LINE: Tennessee by seven
TENN OFFENSE: B; TENN DEFENSE: B
UCLA OFFENSE: D; UCLA DEFENSE: B
UCLA’s quarterback situation is dire. Last season’s offense was not that great to begin with, so their defense is going to have to give Tennessee’s new system all it can handle.
If the Vols can adapt to their new offensive attack, the rest of their team looks solid. The only reason not to pick Tennessee in this game is their cross-country trip to foreign land. I don’t think that will make a bit of difference.
Tennessee, 27-13
What it would take for UCLA to win: An offense that looks nothing like last year’s or this past spring’s.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Memphis @ Mississippi (70 percent)
7:00 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS (60,850)
LAST YEAR: Memphis: 7-6 (6-2); Ole Miss: 3-9 (0-8)
LAST MEETING: Ole Miss won @ Memphis 23-21 last year
PRESEASON RANK: Memphis—anywhere from 62-94; Mississippi—anywhere from 53-75
EARLY LINE: Ole Miss by eight
MEMPHIS OFFENSE: C; MEMPHIS DEFENSE: D
OLE MISS OFFENSE: C; OLE MISS DEFENSE: C
In what may be an underrated rivalry, Memphis and Mississippi open the year against each other in Oxford. Mississippi looks to improve under the leadership of incoming transfer Jevan Snead. The players around him have the talent and now the coach in Houston Nutt. Memphis’ defense will be their undoing.
Ole Miss, 33-24
What it would take for Memphis to win: A great day running the football to keep their defense off the field.
Mississippi St. @ Louisiana Tech (75 percent)
6:45 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA (30,600)
LAST YEAR: Miss St.: 8-5 (4-4); La Tech: 5-7 (4-4)
LAST MEETING: La Tech won @ Miss St. 38-23 in 1996
PRESEASON RANK: Miss St.—anywhere from 29-48; La Tech—anywhere from 87-99
EARLY LINE: Miss St. by nine
MISS ST OFFENSE: D; MISS ST DEFENSE: B
LA TECH OFFENSE: F; LA TECH DEFENSE: D
Mississippi St. makes a scary trip to Ruston to play a Louisiana Tech team they should beat. It’s not what you would call a "gimme" game. The Mississippi St. offense doesn’t look to be any better than the last few years, but their defense remains strong.
The lesser of the Bulldogs, Louisiana Tech, will be entering the game with a new quarterback. That might be a good thing because they were absolutely awful on offense last year. This will be another low scoring game, and those usually go to Mississippi St.
Miss St., 26-14
What it would take for La. Tech. to win: The new quarterback (Michael Mosley) surprises and looks great. This marks the first time Louisiana Tech will be hosting an SEC team, and their crowd will have to provide a big advantage as well.
NC State @ South Carolina (80 percent)
8:00 pm Thursday, Aug. 28; Williams-Brice Stadium (The Cockpit), Columbia, SC (80,250)
LAST YEAR: NC State: 5-7 (3-5); S. Carolina: 6-6 (3-5)
LAST MEETING: NC State won @ home 10-0 in 1999
PRESEASON RANK: NC State—anywhere from 52-68; S. Car—anywhere from 27-47
EARLY LINE: S. Carolina by 12
NC STATE OFFENSE: D; NC STATE DEFENSE: C
S. CAR OFFENSE: C; S. CAR DEFENSE: B
South Carolina, with its better defense and home field advantage, should come away from this game with a win. Both teams' offenses could turn out OK by the end of the year, but right now they look questionable, so I see this game being pretty low scoring.
S. Carolina, 24-13
What it would take for NC State to win: S. Carolina quarterback play continues to be a liability, and NC State’s advantageous defense keeps the crowd out of the game.
Appalachian St. @ LSU (85 percent)
5:00 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Tiger Stadium (Death Valley), Baton Rouge, LA (92,400)
LAST YEAR: Appy St.: 13-2 (5-2); LSU: 12-2 (6-2)
LAST MEETING: LSU won @ home 24-0 in 2005
PRESEASON RANK: Appy St.—N/A; LSU—6th
EARLY LINE: LSU by 23
ASU OFFENSE: B; ASU DEFENSE: D
LSU OFFENSE: B; LSU DEFENSE: B
This meeting marks the first time the defending FBS and defending FCS national champions meet. While I do not see Appalachian St. duplicating their upset of Michigan against the Tigers, I do see Appy hanging tough and making it closer than people think because of LSU‘s inexperience in a few places. Appalachian St.’s offense will put some points up, but it will not be enough.
LSU, 37-21
What it would take for Appy St. to win: The Mountaineers’ confidence needs to remain strong and keep them in the game early. Appalachian’s skill players must exploit the inexperience in LSU's defense.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn (90 percent)
7:00 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Jordan-Hare Stadium (Grand Canyon), Auburn, AL (87,451)
LAST YEAR: La. Monroe: 6-6 (4-3); Auburn: 9-4 (5-3)
LAST MEETING: Auburn won @ home 31-0 in 2004
PRESEASON RANK: La. Monroe—anywhere from 82-114; Auburn—11th
EARLY LINE: Auburn by 27
LA MON. OFFENSE: D; LA MON. DEFENSE: C
AUBURN OFFENSE: C; AUBURN DEFENSE: A
Hoping to ride the momentum from last year’s end of the year success (and the win at Alabama), Louisiana Monroe comes into this game with a senior quarterback and some confidence. Auburn will make sure they return home 0-1. There's too much defense for the Tigers. Their offense hopes to open strong with the new spread attack they installed. Auburn will be just fine.
Auburn, 31-9
What it would take for La. Monroe to win: Accidentally drive to Tuscaloosa instead of Auburn?
Hawaii @ Florida (95 percent)
12:30 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (The Swamp), Gainesville, FL (88,548)
LAST YEAR: Hawaii: 12-1 (8-0); Florida: 9-4 (5-3)
LAST MEETING: Never Met
PRESEASON RANK: Hawaii—anywhere from 43-81; Florida—5th
EARLY LINE: Florida by 34
HAWAII OFFENSE: C; HAWAII DEFENSE: C
FLORIDA OFFENSE: A; FLORIDA DEFENSE: B
Don‘t expect the Warriors to keep it close. Hawaii is completely rebuilding its offense, so a shaky but talented Gators defense will not be tested just yet. Certainly not great, Hawaii’s defense might be undervalued, but it will not be able to slow down Florida‘s world-class offense. Look for Florida to dominate early and often.
Florida, 45-14
What it would take for Hawaii to win: Make a stop in Dallas on its extended trip from Honolulu to Florida and outfit the entire Cowboys team in green and black and hope nobody in Gainesville recognizes them.
Western Illinois @ Arkansas (95 percent)
7:00 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR (76,000)
LAST YEAR: W. Illinois: 6-5 (3-3); Arkansas: 8-5 (4-4)
LAST MEETING: Never Met
PRESEASON RANK: W. Illinois—N/A; Arkansas—anywhere from 48-61
EARLY LINE: No Line
W. ILLINOIS OFFENSE: F; W. ILLINOIS DEFENSE: F
ARKANSAS OFFENSE: C; ARKANSAS DEFENSE: D
Arkansas opens against FCS weakling Western Illinois. The Razorbacks look to replace only the best backfield they’ve ever had. Casey Dicks looks to...ah, who am I kidding—it’s Western Illinois. ‘Backs big.
Arkansas, 41-11
What it would take for W. Illinois to win: 13 against 11.
Georgia Southern @ Georgia (95 percent)
12:30 pm Saturday, Aug. 30; Sanford Stadium (Between the Hedges), Athens, GA (92,746)
LAST YEAR: Ga. Southern: 7-4 (4-3); Georgia: 11-2 (6-2)
LAST MEETING: Georgia won @ home 48-28 in 2004
PRESEASON RANK: Ga. Southern—N/A; Georgia—1st
EARLY LINE: No Line
GA STHN OFFENSE: D; GA STHN DEFENSE: F
GEORGIA OFFENSE: B; GEORGIA DEFENSE: A
While I’m not completely convinced the Georgia offense will be a juggernaut this year, against Georgia Southern the unit should look the part. In years past, Georgia Sothern’s offense may have been able to put up some points. However, they lost a lot on offense, and Georgia’s defense should be menacing this year. Southern’s bus driver may want to warm the bus up in the second quarter—this one’s going to be dawg ugly.
Georgia, 48-10
What it would take for Ga South. to win: After scoring their first points of the day, a field goal to cut the lead to 21-3, Georgia Southern’s coach orders his whole team to run out onto the field and celebrate. The Bulldogs are left in utter shock, lose focus, and eventually the game, 31-28.
SEC RECORD THROUGH FIRST WEEK: 10-2
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3 months ago
Lots of stats thrown in there. Good research.
I hate that Alabama has the worst statistical chance of winning. I know everyone keeps saying that Clemson's O-line is there ONLY weak spot. But that could be huge if they completely fall apart, or if for some reason injuries start popping up on the line in this game. I know, the same could be said of Bama's defense as well, but an o-line is so important. I think that will be the key for keeping the game close for Bama. If they can take advantage of the inexperience of Clemson's o-line they may have a chance ti disrupt Clemson's great backfield just enough to stay in the game. However, if the line comes out and plays lights out, Bama will be in for a long night I'm afraid. Either way, I am very anxious to see that game come!!
And personally, I think Georgia makes a statment early and not only shuts GA Southern out, but does so emberassingly. Probably like 60-0.
Good article Brian!
from 3 months ago
Clemson's offensive line might be the most curious unit in all of college football.
3 months ago
Wow, kinda harsh on Bama up there. I find it hard to believe that a team has an A defense with 0 returning starters at LB. Clemson makes Alabama look experienced at LB, so I wouldnt put that so high. Not to mention a C for Bama's D? Its Alabama, defense is the only consistency this team has seen over the past 10 years of debacle. Outside of that, good article.
from 3 months ago
Nic, you make some good points. I know Alabama's defense has being their saving grace over the last few years but I just think they have really big holes to fill in the front seven this year. Gilberry will be sorely missed, linebackers Knight and Hall remain uncertainties as well. Clemson looks to have a strong d-line and if you have a strong front 4, your linebackers just have to be solid not spectacular. That's how I see it, could be wrong....really looking forward to that game though
from 3 months ago
O wow, youre out of the loop a little bit here. Zeke Knight is medically disqualified for this game and Hall is suspended. Rolando is the only starter, so freshmen will be playing. All indications in camp are that freshmen will fill the void and JUCO transfer Terrance Cody is going to play a lot on the DL in the 3-4, and he requires two guys to block him.
As for Clemson, no doubt the rest of their defense is stellar, but the fact that Alabama's offense is now looking for the shorter passes this season in the LBs range and dumping to RBs would lead me to think there could be issues for Clemson in this game, but thats not to say Alabama wont face any problems either. Just like you, Im ready for the game, though.
from 3 months ago
The alphabet rating was for the year, not this game. Uncertainties for the year as a whole at the linebacker position and yes I realize they will be hurting there particularly for this game, that's where I was going with that. Sorry for confusion
3 months ago
Did I read this right, do you have Hawaii's defense an A and Florida's offense a C? That makes no sense.
Like the article though.
from 3 months ago
....yes you read it right, yes it is a major mistake! Those are supposed to be flipped......and now they are. Thanks Justin.
3 months ago
You took a couple of shots at Alabama . Both in relation to Auburn . Something tells me you might be anti-Alabama ,or an Aubie ? Inquiring minds would like to know ?
from 3 months ago
If you took the time to look at his profile you would realize he is a Tennessee fan.
from 3 months ago
Yeah, sorry I try to be objective but I also like to add a little "flavor" or whatever. I guess my true colors come out sometimes.....me no likey Alabama.
3 months ago
"What it would take for La. Monroe to win: Accidentally drive to Tuscaloosa instead of Auburn?"
That's just too funny. Thanks for the laugh. Oh, and nice work. I sure hope LSU's offense can put up that many points.
3 months ago
Still laughing.
from 3 months ago
....couldn't help it. What else was I going to say?
from 3 months ago
Brian: you a funny guy!!
this is an interesting approach, give it a shot every week.
oh, yeah, I'd say Auburn's chances of beating la-monroe are 100%. Tuberville has played them 3 times previously, and the combined score is 176-21!!!
3 months ago
Good picks. I agree with them all.
I also liked your view on La. Monroe's chances of winning. I wish I could post a picture here.
3 months ago
Nice picks Brian. It will be real hard for the Bruins offense to be much different than in the spring. I think the only way they beat Tennessee is if they can cause turnovers on defense.
I don't think the Vols traveling will be a big factor since they had to travel out west last season.
from 3 months ago
I agree, they've done this before. Little worried about the offensive execution for a new system in an opponent's stadium for the first game but my uneasiness is tempered my Crompton. I think the kid is tough as nails and looks to have the leadership qualities you're looking for. Can't wait!
3 months ago
A Tennessee fan , that is the same thing in my book . That explains the cheap shots !
3 months ago
A Tennessee fan ? That explains the cheap shots !
3 months ago
"You won't find 'unbiased' coverage at Bleacher Report, and that's the point" ....I guess this is true for me
3 months ago
A Tennessee fan ragging on Alabama. What a surprise.
41-17 buddy... 41-17.
No question Alabama has questions at linebacker, but so does Clemson and Alabama's front seven looks very favorable against Clemson's horrible offensive line.
If your offensive line can't hold up, which there are tons of questions for Clemson's, those skilled players (Davis, Spiller, Harper) are not going to shine anywhere as much as they would with decent O-line.
This is not a gaurenteed win for anyone and know where close to 70/30 as you make it out to be. It is much closer to 50/50. 45% would be much more realistic and non bias number, but if you want to bash your rival that's fine. After all, it is SEC Football though.
You'll be surprised when you tune into that game on August 30th though.
3 months ago
65/35 at best
from 3 months ago
Why make predictions that are obviously biased by you loyalty to Tennessee ? If you intend to just take cheap shots at Alabama , why disguise them as legit predictions ? By the way when does Tennessee play Navy again ?
from 3 months ago
I try to be objective, in this case, my predictions are based on Alabama finishing bad last season, having a weak front seven not being able to exploit Clemson so-so O line. Sure I throw in jabs at certain teams but I try not to let it affect my predicting. There is a difference. I'm not understanding the Tenn./Navy question.
3 months ago
Kinda slow aren't you . I'm not hiding my cheap shots behind phony predictions . Here's another one . La Tech beat Alabama... Alabama killed Tennessee.... could La tech could destroy Tennessee ?? I'm just basing that on last season's results ??
from 3 months ago
I believe you were looking for La. Monroe there.
Why are you arguing? If you don't like what he wrote don't read. It is very simple. Everyone here is biased. Look in the mirror if you don't believe me.
3 months ago
Sorry , i meant Air Force . Whoops
3 months ago
Yes Ben , La. Monroe . You're right . I am just trying to make a point . It is hard to take someone seriously if they have an agenda . Brian , don't try to say you are trying to be objective . Predict games you have no bias in , leave the cheap shots out of it . You lose all credibility when your colors show so clearly . Ben , you are right.... I just won't read .
3 months ago
Very good Brian. Enjoyable. Let's see how things play out. I'll tell you that the one game I would have different from you and that is Miami vs Vanderbilt. I'll say 24-14 Miami over Vandy. Just too good a defense for the Commodores to handle this season and they get some payback for last year. Who knows, they may even honor Ron Zook at halftime for his contributions on behalf of the alumni.
You know, Miami is 11-12 alltime versus the SEC. That's a better record than Ohio State. Tough team.
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