NFL Picks Against the Spread: Michael Vick and The Eagles Will Prey On The Colts

James BrownSenior Analyst INovember 3, 2010

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Michael Vick and The Eagles Will Prey On The Colts

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    Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

    The trend continued of hovering right around .500 for the season on my picks. Last week as I finished at 6-7 against the spread (ATS) bringing my record to a dreadful 55-59-1on the season.

    If I had to grade my performance on the year for picking every game against the spread, I would have to give myself a “C.” Now of course I don’t have a winning record so it could be an automatic “F,” but I like to give out points for persistence.

    I am going to try and shop for better NFL betting lines since some of the games are finishing close to the closing number, so I will post the best lines I find for each team.

    With that in mind it’s on to Week 9 for my picks against the spread in the NFL for every game.

    •Bye: Denver, Tennessee, St. Louis, San Francisco, Washington, Jacksonville

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

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    Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

    The astonishing Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try and gain respect as one of the best teams in the NFC by taking down the Atlanta Falcons. The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbooks have the Falcons listed as favorites.

    Anyone else drinking the Tampa Bay Kool-Aid? They did have an impressive win on the road in the desert against Arizona, and no one would have predicted they would be 5-2 at this point. The NFL oddsmakers are not buying it by making the Falcons a bigger than expected favorite.

    One thing I realized a long time ago is I like to be on the side of the oddsmakers.

    The Falcons get the edge by playing at home and Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

    Best Line Search:

    BroBury Sports has the Falcons at minus-8.5

    5 Dimes has the Bucs at plus-10

    I am giving the points in this game, Falcons (minus-8.5)

Chicago Vs Buffalo (at Toronto)

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    The winless Buffalo Bills will try to get their first win of the season in Week 9, when they host the Chicago Bears in Toronto Canada. The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Bears listed as favorites.

    The poor Bills, they make every game so close but have still yet to get a win. To me that is a sign of good coaching and a team that will never give up. This game is in Toronto, not exactly a home crowd for the Bills but close enough.

    "We’re trying to make that another home situation," Chan Gailey said. "It doesn’t feel like that yet, but that’s our job is to try to win and make that exciting for those people. There’s a lot of Buffalo fans in Canada. We’re trying to make that happen. We’re not doing our part right now. But it can be a very exciting proposition long term if we’ll do our part."

    Bears fans travel well, but the Bears team doesn’t cash well against the number. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a loss and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

    Best Line Search:

    BetMania has the Bears minus-2.5

    BetJamaica has the Bills plus-three (EV)

    The Bills never quit, and the Bears seem like they have already quit on quarterback Jay Cutler. I am taking the Bills (plus-three)

New England at Cleveland

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    Chris Graythen/Getty Images

    The New England Patriots will take the best record in football to Cleveland to do battle with the Browns. The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Patriots listed favorites in this game.

    The Patriots seemingly have an emotionally charged game every week, but they get a break this week against the Browns.

    The Browns are off a bye week, and had plenty of time to prepare for this game. The Browns have shown an ability to play with some of the better teams in the league after defeating the New Orleans Saints on the road.

    Rookie quarterback Colt McCoy will most likely get the start since the other quarterbacks are not healthy enough to practice. McCoy has looked good in his starts, and is very poised in the pocket.

    The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings, and the Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Browns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC and pay bettors that back them as they have covered 10 of the last 14 games.

    Best Line Search:

    BetPhoenix has the Patriots at minus-four

    Brobury Sports has the Browns at plus-five

    This is a letdown spot for the Patriots, and I am not ready to call it my biggest upset in Week 9, but the Browns and the points are the way to go. Browns (plus-five)

NY Jets at Detroit

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    Leon Halip/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Jets as road favorites as they head into Detroit.

    The question is what Jets team will make the trip to Detroit? The one that was unable to score a point at home against the injured Packers defense? The Lions are scouring over that game film right now to find the way to shut down the Jets, and they got some bulletin board material too.

    Jets coach Rex Ryan bragged about his defense and said that Detroit will not up points against them, like they have against other teams in the league.

    " Yeah, they could come out and prove me wrong," Ryan said, "but I doubt it. This is a proud group right here on defense. We haven't really been healthy and we're just now getting healthy. Like I said, you'll see; we have an excellent defense.”

    The Lions are for real and I still think they can even win their division. The Lions have the best record against the spread in the NFL and are 5-0 ATS against a team with a winning record.

    I am eager to see the matchup between Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson and the NY Jets secondary.

    Best Line Search:

    JustBet has the Jets minus-four

    BetMania has the Lions plus-four -108

    I am sticking with the home team because the Jets seem as though they did nothing to answer the offensive problems from a week ago. Ndamukong Suh is a beast on defense, and that Lions offense will keep putting up points. The Jets could easily lose this one. Lions (plus-four)

New Orleans at Carolina

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    Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Saints as favorites, but what did you expect with how bad the Panthers have played?

    The Saints are off a very nice primetime win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and seem to be back on the winning track. This game should be a warm-up drill for the Saints as the Panthers are horrible. So you know what that means, take the Panthers. What?

    The Panthers are home divisional dog and still play with fire at home and against the Saints. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings with the Panthers.  

    The Panthers are 8-2 ATS when they play a team with a winning record, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS when they play against a team with a losing record.

    Best Line Search:

    Skybook has the Saints minus-6.5

    BetJamaica has the Panthers plus-seven

    The Panthers still have some pride on this team and will keep it close. Panthers (plus-seven)

Miami at Baltimore

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    Larry French/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Ravens favored when they host the Dolphins this weekend.

    A road game might be exactly what the Dolphins want as they tend to play better on the road this season, but they may not say that when they face the tough Ravens defense.  

    The Ravens are off a bye week after surviving a scare from the Buffalo Bills, and that loss should have taught them to not take anyone for granted. The Ravens are 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games as a home favorite, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

    The Ravens know how to prepare and get well rested with a bye week as they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.

    Best Line Search:

    BetPhoenix has the Ravens minus-five -108

    Skybook has the Dolphins plus-five (EV)

    A rested and healthy Ravens squad takes it to the road weary Dolphins. Ravens (minus-five)

San Diego at Houston

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    Jeff Gross/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Chargers as road favorites.

    This is another game between two teams that are just downright confusing.

    The Texans lose to the Colts after failing to run although that is exactly how they beat them in the first game. The real reason that they could not win that game is because they have one of the worst (and youngest) defenses in the NFL.  

    The Chargers on the other hand have one of the most explosive offenses in the league and should shred the Texans defense. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0, and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 against teams with a winning record.

    Best Line Search:

    BetMania has San Diego minus-2.5

    Brobury has the Texans at plus-three

    Did anyone realize that Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards? Rivers gets closer to that with another big day in a win over the Texans. Chargers (minus-2.5)

Arizona at Minnesota

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    Harry How/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Vikings as a huge favorite in this game.

    This game is just downright ugly.

    Do you back the Cardinals who may be the worst team in the NFL right now outside of Buffalo, or attempt to back the train wreck in Minnesota?  

    This line has jumped up since the Vikings waived Randy Moss and that I don’t get at all. The Vikings are the better team but wide receiver Percy Harvin is hurt and although Sidney Rice was taken off the PUP list, he may not be able to play.

    Quarterback Derek Anderson was announced as the starter this week for the Cardinals and although he is good for a turnover, I just can’t drop this many points with the Vikings.

    Best Line Search:

    Bet Revolution has the Vikings minus-8.5

    5 Dimes has the Cardinals plus-10

    This is the worst game on the slate, and if I wasn’t picking every game I would pass on this one, but I will take Arizona. Cardinals plus-10

NY Giants at Seattle

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    Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Giants as road chalk when they head to Seattle.

    The Seahawks were trounced by the Raiders, and they had me fooled into believing that they could win on the road.  They are a much better home team however and should be able to put up a better fight at home.

    The Giants are still one of the better teams in the NFC, but are not getting any credit for it. The defense is playing well and the offense seems to be starting to come together. The problem is the West Coast trip has caused some problems for East Coast teams in the past.

    The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a winning home record, and 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games in November. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog and play much better with the home crowd backing them up.

    Best Line Search:

    BetPhoenix as the Giants at minus-6.5 -105

    Brobury Sports has the Seahawks at plus-seven

    Too many points to give a team that plays this well at home, and the Giants may have one eye on the game next week against the Cowboys. Seattle (plus-seven)

Indianapolis at Philadelphia

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    Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Eagles as small home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts.

    Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is great and there is no doubting that, but his injury situation will hurt his game. Don’t let the Texans game fool you. The Texans have no defense, and it helped the Colts offense look better than they are without their key pieces. When they run into Philadelphia they will face a much better defense.

    The Colts are also on a short week and they get the Eagles coming off of a bye week. This is bad news even to Peyton Manning.

    "I think it's the third (or) fourth team we've played coming off the bye week,"  Manning said after Monday's game. "Appreciate that, whoever does the schedule. "I think we're getting everybody's best shot and everybody's coming in fresh. (We've) just got to find a way to keep grinding out some victories, hopefully."

    The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games, following a bye week and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Quarterback Michael Vick will get the start and help the Eagles energize the offense.

     Best Line Search:

    Skybook has Eagles minus-2.5

    JustBet has Colts plus-three

    The Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games, and I am backing the Birds. Eagles (minus-2.5)

Kansas City at Oakland

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    Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Oakland Raiders favored in the black hole over the Kansas City Chiefs.

    At the start of the year no one would have imagined that this would be a pivotal game for these two teams in the AFC West.  The Chiefs started out the season by impressing the critics, but it took the Raiders a few weeks to hit their stride.

    The Silver and Black have put together two very solid games on offense and defense, and are making a run for the top spot in the AFC West. The Raiders know how big this game is.

    "We just know we've got Kansas City next week," coach Tom Cable said. "And it's a big game."

    Quarterback Jason Campbell has been quoted as calling this a playoff game, and will be ready for the test. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in the last four games and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the AFC West.

    Best Line Search:

    BetPhoenix has the Chiefs plus-three

    Bet Revolution has the Raiders minus-2.5 (EV)

    Darren McFadden has turned into the offensive machine Al Davis envisioned when he was drafted. The Raiders win this game, and become the talk of the town again in the NFL. Raiders (minus-2.5)

Dallas at Green Bay

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    Chris Chambers/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook, and the Green Bay Packers are huge home favorites over the floundering Dallas Cowboys.

    I bet when the season first started the good folks at NBC thought this game would look great on their schedule.

    Since then the Dallas Cowboys have lost quarterback Tony Romo, and nearly every game on the season. Is there anything else you can even say about the Dallas Cowboys? They have tremendous talent and cannot put it together. They make mistakes in every game and cannot be counted on to play a complete ballgame. In fact in the last game it was obvious that they gave up.

    The Packers are banged up, but are still playing their hearts out and off a very impressive win over the Jets. The banged up defense shut out the New York Jets and grabbed a nice out of conference win.

    This is an open and shut case, right? Maybe not.

    Best Line Search:

    JustBet has the Packers minus-eight

    BetPhoenix has the Cowboys plus-nine

    The Cowboys were called out as quitters and for seemingly the first time this season, everyone has given up on them. I think this is the first time they play with heart, it may be asking too much but I am taking the Cowboys. Dallas (plus-nine)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

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    Andy Lyons/Getty Images

    The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by online sportsbook have the Pittsburgh Steelers as size able favorites on the road in Cincinnati.

    The Bengals have to know that this game is the game of the year for them. If they have any chance of salvaging their season, they have to win this game. A win would put them back on the winning track and it would give them a crucial divisional win. The Bengals may not have a lot of wins, but they did beat Baltimore making this a very interesting game.

    The Steelers are the better team but they looked vulnerable through the air against the Saints and the Bengals have the weapons to attack with the pass.

    The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a losing home record.

    Best Line Search:

    BetPhoenix has the Steelers -4.5 -105

    Bet Revolution has the Bengals +5.5

    The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog and are the play as a home divisional dog on Monday Night Football.(Bengals +5.5)

    Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com

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