November 9, 2010
Marc Serota/Getty Images
All of the analysts talking about the Miami Heat's supposed weaknesses at point guard and center will be exposed as false prophets tonight after the Heat's home game against Deron Williams, Al Jefferson and the Utah Jazz.
Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 98.7 percent chance of beating the Jazz when they visit Miami tonight.
Here's a breakdown of the numbers that went into the formula:
>Miami Heat Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.187 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
>Miami Heat Pace: 91.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)
>Miami Heat Days Rest: Two (last game was 101-89 win over N.J. Nets on 11/7/10)
>Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
>Utah Jazz Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.092 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
>Utah Jazz Pace: 95.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)
>Utah Jazz Days Rest: Two (last game was 109-107 2OT win over L.A. Clippers on 11/7/10)
I've mentioned previously that the Heat won't be favored to lose a home game all season and this game is a perfect example of why. The Heat are literally twice as good as the Jazz and there should be no question about how this game will end.
The only question after this game will be whether or not the "experts" proclaiming the Heat's weaknesses at point guard and center will keep singing that same old, tired song after Deron Williams and Al Jefferson get run out of the building.
Predicted score: Heat 100, Jazz 86.
For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.
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