Many people would argue that the Ottawa Senators' window of opportunity to win the Stanley Cup is rapidly closing. Some would even suggest that the team is on the verge of missing the postseason for the first time in over a decade.
One thing is for sure—eight players that were part of the first-round drubbing at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins will not be suiting up for the Sens when they open their season in Stockholm.
Given that, the team went out and signed Jarkko Ruutu and Jason Smith. Both of these signings were made by GM Bryan Murray to address the need of grit and leadership in the Sens' locker room.
Up front, the team will heavily rely on Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley to shoulder the offensive load. There's no question that the big-three will put up big numbers, but it is hard to say whether their supporting cast can do the same.
The team avoided arbitration when they re-signed Antoine Vermette to a two-year deal only weeks ago. During the team's downward spiral at the end of last season, Vermette was one of the lone bright spots for the Senators. Vermette is expected to centre the second line and will be looked upon—once again—to have a breakout season.
Ottawa has a solid group of players, but their problem will be providing secondary scoring behind the top line. Veteran Mike Fisher and sophomore Nick Foligno will have to deliver a more offensive output, while other role players will have to chip in as much as possible to light up the board in the Nation's Capital.
On defense there are some real question marks. Long-time Senator Wade Redden decided to take his show to Broadway, leaving the team without a legitimate number-one defenseman. Albeit, Redden's last two seasons were average at best—but the Senators now have to find a player from within the organization who will be able to quarterback power plays and put up numbers.
The rest of the defensemen carry a physical presence—especially Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, and the newly-acquired Jason Smith. With the signing of the veteran Smith, the team is expected to gain plenty of hard work and leadership. Between Volchenkov and Smith, the Senators have two of the top three shot-blockers from a year ago.
Brian Lee and Lawrence Nycholat are likely to make the jump and become mainstay NHLers in the fall. Both are coming off strong campaigns in Binghamton, and will contribute offensively from the back-end.
With those five names listed, there is one spot remaining on defense. Andrej Meszaros has yet to sign a new contract, and the season is right around the corner. Although Christoph Schubert is a natural defenseman who can fill in the sixth spot, don't be surprised to see him on up on left wing next season.
In between the pipes, we have Martin Gerber and Alex Auld. This is by no means an elite tandem, but hopefully the signing of Auld makes for healthy competition in training camp. Keep in mind that Gerber's contract is up at the end of the season, and if he has a sub-par year the Sens won't hesitate to replace him going into the 2009-10 season.
Though the team's roster will not be finalized until the end of training camp, one can speculate what it will look like:
LW C RW
D. Heatley J. Spezza D. Alfredsson
N. Foligno A. Vermette M. Fisher
J. Ruutu C. Kelly C. Neil
C. Schubert D. McAmmond S. Donovan
LD RD
- B/R Ticket Guide
A. Volchenkov C. Phillips
B. Lee J. Smith
L. Nycholat ?
G
M. Gerber
A. Auld
As it stands, Meszaros is not under contract, so I technically can't add him to the depth chart. If "Meszy" were to play elsewhere this season, Schubert would drop back to the blue line, leaving an opening at the forward position.
Other candidates to make the team out of training camp: J. Winchester, C. Bass A. Nikulin, I. Zubov
Statistically speaking, here's how I think the points will spread:
Name G A P
D. Heatley 51 50 101
J. Spezza 29 69 98
D. Alfredsson 40 57 97
A. Vermette 29 42 71
M. Fisher 25 31 56
N. Foligno 19 26 45
B. Lee * 10 31 41
C. Kelly 17 23 40
D. McAmmond 12 16 28
A. Volchenkov 6 19 25
C. Neil 12 12 24
C. Schubert ** 9 14 23
L. Nycholat 7 16 23
J. Ruutu 10 10 20
C. Phillips 4 15 19
J. Winchester *** 3 15 18
S. Donovan *** 6 10 16
J. Smith 2 9 11
C. Bass 1 3 4
A. Nikulin 1 3 4
I. Zubov 0 2 2
* - If Meszaros returns to the lineup, there's no question he will be playing in power-play situations. He will put up 11-34-45 if he plays, where I would see Lee drop to 7-24-31 while playing less minutes.
** - If Meszaros doesn't re-sign, Schubert will suit up as a defenseman. Therefore his numbers would decrease due to the lack of opportunities to the area of 5-10-15.
*** - Shean Donovan re-signed in the offseason to a two-way contract. Although it is unlikely, Donovan could be seeing time in Bingo if the team feels Jesse Winchester can add offense to the big club.
Both Alexander Nikulin and Ilya Zubov are expected to fill in during the event of an injury. In that case, the point totals for these two above could be an accurate prediction. However, if one of these guys can manage to earn a spot out of training camp, their numbers will increase.
As you can see, it's evident that the Senators' organization has its work cut out for it. The team's fans are hoping that the offseason additions in the grit and leadership category will show in the win column in the race for the postseason.
Final prediction: 40 wins, 31 losses, 11 overtime losses (91 points, eighth in the Eastern Conference). First-round elimination in seven games.
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2 months ago
Good preview.
I don't really agree with your gloomy assessment though.
The rumours of the Sens demise are greatly exaggerated. Last year was a a "perfect storm" with all kinds of on ice and off ice situations coming to a head all at once.
Many of the problems from last season have been addressed and with the implementation of a decent defensive system (which Paddock did not have) the Sens can easily challenge for the division with Montreal.
As much as the Sens struggled down the stretch people need to remember that the core of this team thrived during the first half of last season. The potential is there.
I see a 4th place conference finish and I don't really think anyone can judge playoff performance before seeing the regular season, potential match-ups, etc.
from 2 months ago
This team looks like it's going to play like they did in 06-07. Start off the year slow, build up and maybe make a cup run. Who knows, but I find a lot of people are underestimating this team.
2 months ago
I'm glad the Sens are being underestimated, the shot to the ego will be a motivating factor.
2 months ago
I think you were a bit generous for everyone on point predictions, but aren't we all when it comes to our own teams??
Lol, seriously though, great prediction. I think they will rebound this year for the most part.
2 months ago
Not bad lineup, but I would go ahead and count Winchester as starting on the roster on the fourth line with Schubert on D and Nycholat being the 7th (if Mesz signs).
2 months ago
i think i would go with this line at first if it was up to me, then the first i would change if it didn't work out would be kelly and vermette. then i would go and put the big line back if i needed to. i think this would be a good spread and would give good balanced lines and i think every line could potentially be a good scoring line.
LW C RW
N. Foligno J. Spezza D. Alfredsson
D. Heatley C. Kelly C. Neil
J. Ruutu A. Vermette M. Fisher
C. Schubert D. McAmmond S. Donovan
i'm not sure what to think as far as our chances this year. i feel alot has changed. i think you're right though secondary scoring and goaltending are really our do or die areas. i think if ruutu gives us the ability to breakup our big line we could do quite well. i remember when spezza was injured heatly turned it up, i got the impression he is capable of playing a much more prevalent role and instead plays more submissive as is needed on the big line being almost purely a sniper. but with kelly i think there could be some good passing, some grit from neil and going to the net where kelly or heatly might find him. i think a ruutu vermette and fisher line would be real hard to play against and could also light it up often enough.
we'll see i guess. i'm not overly optimistic nor pessimistic, but hopeful. i think there is good potential, i think Brian Murray did a great job given his cap and the available players. hopefully it'll work out. maybe we're a little weak on defense in the offensive department. and like you said hopefully we'll have good healthy competition for a number one goaltender, and whoever it will be will do well.
2 months ago
I also disagree with the gloomy outlook for the playoffs. I agree that we're going to challenge Montreal for the division and maybe even the conference. Last year was a hickup, and an unfortunate one at that. Our Stanley Cup partners (Anaheim) from two years ago didn't fair so well either. They had a sub-par season and were eliminated in six games by the Dallas Stars. They're core didn't change at all last season and they were still outplayed. Yes, Ottawa is underestimated this season which is fine for me. Let everyone else put the pressure on MTL, NYR and DET while we sail in under the radar and surprise everyone like we did in 07.
2 months ago
Ruutu and Neil on the same line would make one hell of a pest line. Neil on his own was bad enough in getting under player's skin from the opposite teams. With ruutu in their lineup i can only see the sens getting better. i wish vancouver had let go of cooke before they let ruutu go. this guy is by far the greatest team player and the most fun to watch.
good luck to ruutu and auld!! hope to have you back with the canucks someday.
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