When I first started playing fantasy football, I was completely frustrated by defensive scoring. Predicting who was going to return interceptions for touchdowns seemed like too daunting a task.
Even worse, it seemed like every time I changed defenses, the guys I had been starting all year would finally score. I felt cursed, and I threw up my hands in exasperation. I decided I would just start the same team every week and hope for the best. This was not the best strategy.
I’ve matured as an owner and come to terms with the random nature of defensive scoring. I now play this part of the game very proactively. Like a card-counting blackjack player, I bet when the odds are in my favor and sit out when they are not.
Last season, I started 10 different defenses in 14 weeks. That combination of defenses was the NFL's third-highest-scoring defense in terms of fantasy points. I picked up a 50 to 80-point advantage over most of my league just by taking a few minutes each week to look for turnovers.
Below, I detail my four-part approach to choosing a defense each week. Please don't tell anyone in my league about it! At the bottom of the page, there is a chart showing the expected turnover leaders through Week Five.
Part One: Fumbles
While fumbles are mostly random, some people do have butterfingers. Remember Tiki Barber before he got the Kung–Fu ball grip?
Last year, in the NFL, there were 800 fumbles, 384 of which were recovered by the defense. Over the long hall, if a player puts the ball on the turf, it is 48 percent likely to be recovered by the defense.
As fans and fantasy owners, we tend to focus too much on fumbles lost, which is more a matter of luck. The “no harm, no foul” rule doesn’t apply when it’s your job to predict future harmful fouls. Every ball on the grass is worth 48 percent of a turnover in my eyes.
The logic here is simple: more balls on the ground equal more turnovers, and more turnovers equals more fantasy points for you.
Part Two: Interceptions
An interception is an interception, so I won’t spend much time here. Obviously, if a team is throwing a lot of picks, starting their opponent as your defense is going to lead to more chances for defensive touchdowns.
More defensive touchdowns equals more fantasy points for you.
Part Three: Sacks
Sacks are a very important part of the equation. Sacks can often lead to fumbles, and the threat of sacks can often lead to interceptions. Lots of times balls get intercepted because the quarterback’s throwing motion was disrupted by a pass rusher.
Ideally, you should look for a team that is getting more sacks than the league average per game and start them against a team that is allowing more sacks than the league average per game. If both teams play like they have been, you should pick up some points.
You may not always get the ideal matchup, but this should be a major factor, as you’re considering which defense to start each week.
Part Four: Inexperienced Quarterbacks
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about 1 month ago
Buddy, it flowed well. I'm a bit at a loss, as I have not played Fantasy, so a bit of it is like Greek. I'll let the editors edit some minor style and other stuff.
You are on the right track.
If you ever feel motivated, maybe a short Fantasy for Dummies like me could be written by you!
Good job. Keep up the great work. Don't stop.
I see my Niners are up in the turnover ratio. Oh, geez. They really suck.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for your comments and the idea. Fantasy Football for dummies does need to be written.
On the Niners: it does seem like an awful long time since the Bill Walsh era. At least this team gives you some false hope from week to week, and improvement over recent years.
about 1 month ago
You know, Buddy, you hit it just right. I do have hope, week to week. That's not something I had last year, for sure. So all is not lost. It's like we a lot going for us, but on Sundays, we just can't get it to gel. Plus, even me, no excuse guy, has to admit the T.O.P. for Sunday was horrendous and any defense would be hurt. However, they allowed NE to scoer 17 in the first half, which they should have prevented with more pressure on Cassel. Still, NE is a good team, even with Brady gone, but it's defense is a half-step slower than last year.
from about 1 month ago
The 49ers are definitely on the right track and the NFC West is ripe for the taking this year. My hometown Seahawks can't win a game on the road and that is making the 12th man apathetic. This apathy will negatively effect their home record as well. 9-7 could take the division title this year and 8-8 has a chance.
There is hope for all of us in the NFC Worst.
about 1 month ago
Fantastic article, Buddy. I absolutely loved it. You made great points and it all makes complete sense. Excellent job! Five stars and a Pick vote. This article is so good it could win a Pick of the Day.
from about 1 month ago
Hey thanks dude. Your opinion really means a lot to me. Thanks for the edits, and you were right that one paragraph did need changing.
about 1 month ago
Gah Buddy, another jackpot my friend!!! Because of you I'll start winning games for once!!! I loved everything in the article, especially about the fumbles, I had no idea the percentages were that high.
Cheers!!!
-Alex
from about 1 month ago
Football people mostly aren't numbers people, and they often focus on the (statistically) wrong things.
Thanks for your thoughts, and hopefully I can help guide you to a championship trophy!
about 1 month ago
Good suggestions all around on choosing a defense, Buddy. Playing the matchups is a must for generating the highest fantasy points each week, and that goes for every position, not just defense.
I've played the free agent pool for defenses in the past, and it works extremely well in smaller leagues or leagues without a lot of experienced fantasy footballers (trying to do the same thing each week). In more veteran fantasy football leagues, however, it becomes very difficult because it's a challenge to snag the best defense off the waiver wire, and you risk getting stuck with a horrible defense if you miss your chance at the homerun hitter of the week.
There's a more conservative strategy called the defense-by-committee approach where you pick and carry two defenses that complement each other at the start of the season. I have seen this strategy produce some of the top defensive scores on the season even though it hurts your depth to keep two defenses all season long.
Swapping your defenses each week is a risky way to play fantasy, but the risks are what pay off big. When the opportunity arises to snag one of these defenses who is bound to have a big game, I take it.
It's a shame we can't all play the defense facing the Lions every week.
from about 1 month ago
I see your point in the deeper leagues. I do think, however, as a league gets more experienced more and more owners carry only one defense.
If your league is deep there are other positions that thin out before defense. But knowing your opponents is a key to winning all competitions.
Maybe I should write that article?
Thanks, as always, for the read and the comments. I appreciate your insights quite a bit.
about 1 month ago
I am somewhat surprised that Detroit is so low on that list. This may be because they are not throwing every down anymore, but usually they are tops at giving the ball up.
from about 1 month ago
They probably have a low time of possession as well.
about 1 month ago
buddy, so say i've got the bears as my team defense.
you advocate sticking with a team like that or playing the numbers every week? because obvioiusly as soon as i drop them, someone else will pick them up.
from about 1 month ago
The Bears are pretty good, and are probably worth keeping on your roster. If you see a Thigpen situation come up -I'd take that team- but probably try to drop a useless WR to pay for it.
Maybe trade the Bears if you can get anything of value for them from another owner, and then play the numbers.
This never comes up for me - I always take defense second to last, and somebody else always has the Bears by then.
about 1 month ago
Nice work on defensive explotation. It's hard in a deeper well-seasoned league to make the week to week move strictly off the waiver wire. Some owners apply the addage "Points on my bench are better than points for your lineup." I have used the rotational defense in the past & felt as though all it did was cost me money until I read this. Capitalizing on individual matchups based on turnover probability is a great way to pick up points for free. Thanks again for the insight.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for reading.
Like I've said before, know your opponents. If you keep getting beat to the good match ups think two weeks ahead. That usually takes care of it.
I'm glad I could help, and good luck in your season.
about 1 month ago
Good article, Buddy. It all makes sense. I'll probably keep starting the Vikes and Titans, but it's definitely something to think about.
from about 1 month ago
If you've got the good defenses use them - just be honest with yourself about who those teams are.
I've scored defensive TD's this year: starting the Bengals week one against Baltimore (Flacco) and Falcons week three hosting the Chiefs. (Thigpen)
I took Tampa Bay in week two hosting Atlanta, Matt Ryan threw two picks and got sacked four times.
Week four I took Denver @ KC and got smoked.
Week five I wanted Carolina, but my girlfriend had them because I talk too much, so I took the Packers and didn't do well again.
Count that week however you want - All in all I'm doing just fine.
I've got the Redskins this week hosting the Rams. We'll see how I do. They're 13 point favorites in Vegas.
about 1 month ago
I agree that winning Fantasy DST stategy is about ACTIVITY by the D. So many websites wanna harp on how few yards and points a defense gives up, as the golden rule of picking a DST. We see, like, what -- one, maybe two shut-outs every few weeks (if that). Go for the Defense that's flying around the field, THAT'S where you'll find your thirty-point weeks...
from about 1 month ago
You make a good point.
Thanks for reading!
about 1 month ago
Buddy,
Interesting article, and I would agree with you for smaller leagues. Considering interceptions, fumbles, and even punt/kickoff returns are important in deciding which DST to start. However in a 12 team league that requires 2 DST's per team, there are only 8 free agent DST's left. Most of these 8 are the ones already on the bottom of the point scoring list. Now one of these DST's may have a favorable match for the week, however that means I have to drop an overall better DST to pick this favorable team up. That's risky. The favorable team may not deliver as expected, and there is a good chance that my released DST will be picked up by someone else. If that occurs, I'm then in a less favorable situation for future weeks. In addition, I need to look at the remaining schedule. My better DST may have more favorable opportunities down the road than the DST I'm looking to pick up only for this week. Defenses are either good or bad. Good defenses MAKE opportunities (fumbles, interceptions) regardless of their opponent. Bad defenses are just bad. How many owners would want to risk picking up the Rams or the Lions regardless of the match up. Not me!
- Mark
from about 1 month ago
You're the first league I've ever heard about that starts two defenses. That changes the math a whole bunch!
Go with your gut - your experience is worth more than mine in this situation.
Thanks for reading! Have a great week.
about 1 month ago
Very good article Buddy, thanks for writing it. I'm a rookie at fantasy and am keen to learn, so will go with you this week! I think the Bengals are better than that list suggests, and much better than 0-5 record, but I'm getting the Jets DST on my roster, having brought in the redskins at the start of the week off waivers... and will start the Jets! Hows that for faith in your theory?!
Keep the advice coming please, thank you!!
from about 1 month ago
I have more than one theory, and when you combine them I'd go Skins this week. 13 1/2 point favorites over the hapless Rams.
For more on that theory see:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/65862-sin-city-how-to-use-las-vegas-lines-to-score-fantasy-points
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