Game Preview
These two teams battled in epic fashion last year in Baton Rouge with LSU topping the Gators 28-24. The Tigers trailed by 10 two different times in the game before gutting out a tough victory in the fourth quarter.
The stakes for the 2008 contest are similar to last year’s game as well, with Florida coming in with one loss to an SEC West opponent (Ole Miss this year, Auburn in 2007) and LSU coming in unbeaten.
Florida cannot afford another loss if it wants to get to Miami in January, and LSU can’t drop too many games in order to keep up in the SEC West with Alabama.
In their last trip to the Swamp in 2006, LSU suffered through an error-filled performance riddled with yellow hankies and five turnovers on the way to a 23-10 loss.
LSU will win if...
The Tigers continue to run the ball like they have all season.
Charles Scott has taken over where Jacob Hester has left off and then some. Scott is averaging 133 yards per game and 7.5 yards per carry.
LSU keeps dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
While most fans know about LSU’s “magnificent seven” defensive linemen (even though they can really rotate nine guys), most of the nation is unaware of how solid LSU’s offensive line has been so far.
Charles Scott may have a great burst and can lower a shoulder with the best of them, but he usually does so through a gaping hole created by the Tiger O-line—the strength of which resides on the left side with tackle Ciron Black and guard Hermann Johnson. The line has much to do with LSU averaging 6.6 yards per play on offense.
Jarrett Lee is efficient under center.
Don’t turn the ball over, and don’t try to be a hero—just keep the sticks moving and convert third downs. That’s it. An effective running game will help this materialize. But mistakes from the QB position can be a killer for the Tigers.
Arkansas had some success moving the ball on the Gator defense but shot themselves in the foot. LSU can’t afford to do the same. Florida will get theirs and score in the 20s in this game—it’ll be the Tiger O that needs to match that plus one.
LSU will lose if...
The Gators throw deep effectively.
While Tim Tebow didn’t look so polished last week throwing the ball, LSU’s pass defense has left a lot to be desired this season, especially on deep passes. I’m not naming names because the whole secondary has been suspect at times, but the nickelback position that the Tigers employ, especially against the spread, will need to tighten up if LSU plans on winning.
The Gator defense dominates.
The Gary Crowton/Charlie Strong matchup may be a fun chess match to watch. What might be more interesting is to see if both squads can execute what these coordinators send in. If the UF defense is clicking and is able to disrupt Jarrett Lee’s first road start, then it’ll be a long day for the Bayou Bengals. The crowd won’t help matters.
LSU’s punt return woes continue.
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about 1 month ago
Excellent.
I think you pointed out three key elements: 1.) Your X factor is right on, 2.) LSU's punt return woes are essential. Meyer loves his special teams, and you can be sure he is still reminding his team of how bad special teams play was at home to Ole Miss. And number 3.) Turnovers. I just can't see LSU winning this battle, but whether or not they lead to points could be the difference in the game.
Watching the kickoff returns for both teams should be fun, that's for sure.
from about 1 month ago
yeah i probably didn't even put enough emphasis on special teams. LSU's coverage on punt and kicks used to be rock solid. lately, they've been allowing some big returns. that'll be a killer if it happens especially with james, that dude is straight mercury.
from about 1 month ago
I agree with you Tim, except, I believe LSU will previl. Getting Holliday to hang to the ball and provide that magic like he did last year would be awesome. Keiland Williams is no slouch returner either. I don't think turnovers will be as deep an issue as they have been, they have been off, and I fully believe Coach Miles has addressed this during the break (at least I hope he has). It will be close, I expect within just a few points, but it's going to be a barn burner for sure.
about 1 month ago
It will be a treat for college football fans for sure this weekend. As you stated, if LSU continues to run the ball and dominate the lines of scrimmage, they have a great chance of winning.
But a game like this, there are way too many factors that could play in to have either team win. I'll be sitting enjoying this one, since everything in Auburn has blown up.
from about 1 month ago
it's just one year, it's not like the program is in shambles at AU.
i mean it's not like tubberville is gonna bolt for clemson next year, right............right??????
from about 1 month ago
Its not in shambles, its just odd. Very odd. Anyway, good luck to the Bayou Bengals this weekend.
from about 1 month ago
thanks. you know the season is still young, auburn has a chance to make some noise.
about 1 month ago
I see the key to an LSU victory as not falling behind by too much early. LSU needs to keep the game within a score (or 10 points at the most). LSU is built to run the ball. If they have to pass to catch up, they will play right into the Gators hands.
from about 1 month ago
i used to think that before miles showed up but i've witnessed too many improbable comebacks in the past three seasons.
from about 1 month ago
I say that because of the inexperience at QB.
from about 1 month ago
ahhh gotcha. no argument there.
about 1 month ago
Wow some good football shows on this weekend! This is the one to watch,though, great points!
5 stars and pic of the day!
As a gator fan, I'm always worried about playing the tigers! Scary one in the swamp Saturday.
from about 1 month ago
i'm always worried about playing florida. it was weird to get on a gator message board a while back and see how many gators worry about the LSU game. it made me feel a little warm and fuzzy knowing there are actually gator fans that don't think they're gonna beat everyone down by 40 every game.
i guess that legacy left when spurrier did.
from about 1 month ago
The idea that the Gators will win by 40 every time got beaten out of Gator fans over the course of the Zook era, and the national title in 2006 that consisted of close win after close win did nothing to bring it back.
Now, the idea that the Gators *should* win by 40 is unfortunately still alive and well.
about 1 month ago
I don't think that LSU can win if Lee just moves the chains. I think he is going to have to make 2 to 3 big, clutch throws in order for them to win. Big completions swing the momentum of a game and suck the life out of a defense. The big TD pass to Chris Mitchell in the Auburn game gave Lee confidence and put LSU in position to win. In the Miss. State game, Lee's TD pass to Byrd made it a three score game. Both those passes were near or over 40 yards.
about 1 month ago
Fantastic. Excellent. Great idea and great work.
about 1 month ago
Justin,
I will officially go on record and say the is no way Florida wins this game and there is no way they throw the ball on LSU.
Nice Job!
from about 1 month ago
Mitch,
I think your Miami loyalty is getting in the way. If Auburn can throw for 250 yards on LSU, why couldn't Florida?
from about 1 month ago
the only reason i say they don't is if tebow is off throwing the ball which isn't far fetched. if he's not, it's gonna be difficult for the tigers.
oh and btw, you had to know that every tom dick and harry would beat lisa and then when the pro gets a shot she goes 9 for 10.
i think your match up with her was a microcosm of this college football season so far.
from about 1 month ago
Justin,
Part of it was Lisa was lights out, part of it is they are set games and not one's I would necessarily pick, that's why I posted my "bonuspick" which was an actual game I picked on my blog. I think maybe only 3 games were one's I picked.
there's no one out there I would honestly mind losing to less than her, she brings it every time out with everything she writes.
about 1 month ago
Amazing. I was the 50th voter on the authors poll and the results were 25 LSU, 25 FL.
LSU and Florida fans may want to visit this forum and get a good laugh. Scroll down through the pictures.
http://ouinsider.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76825
from about 1 month ago
well i think it was even until i just voted on my home computer. 51-49% Fla. gotta stick with my prediction.
this was also one of my locks i picked in an SEC locks artcile back in august.
about 1 month ago
awesome stuff Justin, get ready for the biggest weekend of the year!
from about 1 month ago
thanks hopefully the tigers put up at good fight. good luck against the dawgs!
about 1 month ago
LSU will run the ball effectively and harass Tebow all game long...LSU by a TD.
from about 1 month ago
i hope you're right 12!!!!
good luck with the rebs! but not too much, lol.
from about 1 month ago
LSU may run the ball, but they haven't had much of a pass rush all season. LSU has 6 sacks on the season. Compare Florida - 13 sacks in 1 more game.
from about 1 month ago
that's true mostly b/c they aren't blitzing a whole lot. they prefer to get pressure with 4 and drop their linebackers.
about 1 month ago
I believe this game will be decided by turnovers. I know Scott will take care of business, but lets just pray to sweet 6 pound 8 ounce baby Jesus that Lee plays like he did in the 2nd half of the Auburn game.
from about 1 month ago
amen to that. let's hope jarrett lee pisses excellence.
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