We all knew it was coming.
Anyone who was paying attention knew that the Rays would some day be a force to be reckoned with. You can't stockpile first-round draft picks—like Roseanne Barr collecting Twinkies before a Hostess factory closure—without eventually having a very talented team.
No, this isn't a fluke. It was very predictable. Yet, if you asked just about anyone before the season whom they'd pick in an October showdown of the Red Sox and the Rays, I think you'd get an incredulous look and a quick answer: the Red Sox.
Things aren't so clear these days. The Rays won 10-of-18 games against the Sox this season and took two out of three games in Fenway last month. Boston managed to win only one game at Tropicana Field all season.
The home-field advantage of both teams suggests that this series is unlikely to be sweep, especially given how evenly matched the two clubs are.
So how will it all end up? Let's take a position-by-position look at the lineup of the two ALCS contenders.
CATCHER
Boston: Jason Varitek
Tampa Bay: Dioner Navarro
On paper, this looks like a no-brainer. Navarro hit .295 in the regular season but was not nearly so potent in his 18 games versus the Red Sox, when he batted .190. Defensively, he was also stellar, leading the league by throwing out basestealers 38 percent of the time.
The only real cause for concern for Rays fans is that his second-half numbers (.275/.333/.385) have shown a bit of late season decline.
As I’ve chronicled before, Varitek’s offensive production has been atrocious this year, and his September performance (.183/.286/.300) did nothing to quiet the fears of Red Sox fans, after a very hopeful August (.264/.376/.431). Nor has he been successful at managing opponents’ baserunners, catching base-stealers only 22 percent of the time.
The one major plus Tek provides is his experience and aptitude for handling pitchers. Given the youth of the Red Sox staff, this quality must not be underestimated. While this factor, combined with Varitek’s postseason experience, may make the matchup a bit less lop-sided, Tampa Bay has a clear advantage behind the plate.
Edge: Rays
FIRST BASE
Boston: Mark Kotsay
Tampa Bay: Carlos Pena
Pena may not have duplicated his breakout numbers from 2007, but with 31 homers and 102 RBI, nobody in Saint Petersburg has been complaining. Pena has also shown a knack for coming up big in tight spots, as evidenced by his .338/.471/.738 line in close and late situation. He also played very well against Boston this season, batting.314/.429/.647 in over 60 trips to the plate.
comments (4) write a comment »
write a new comment
about 1 month ago
Pretty objective. Good analysis.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks!
about 1 month ago
Nice analysis! It's good to see each player considered from plenty of angles. I've seen entirely too many discussions based purely on regular season offense.
from about 1 month ago
That's the fun part about analyzing baseball- there are just so many angles. I think you have to look at them all to get any kind of accurate picture of a player.
write a new comment