After a 2-0 loss in Game One, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to even the series with a win tonight.
For Tampa Bay, Scott Kazmir will go (12-8, 3.49). For Boston, Josh Beckett will be on the hill (12-10, 4.03).
Yesterday, Daisuke Matsuzaka paced the Red Sox by pitching a seven inning, four hit shutout. The Red Sox came up with little offense, but they didn't need a huge offensive attack. Kevin Youkilis had an RBI double and Jed Lowrie had an RBI sacrifice fly.
Josh Beckett has the advantage. He was dominant of the Rays this year, with a 2.06 ERA, 37 strikeouts and just five walks in 35 innings. While the Rays can handle most fastballs from righties, Beckett is an exception.
The Rays have the sixth best OPS against righty fastballs. Among the team leaders are Ben Zobrist (1.107), Evan Longoria (1.080), Carlos Pena (1.020), Eric Hinske (1.004) and Cliff Floyd (.955). However, against Beckett, the team OPS against fastballs is .658.
Expect him to use his fastball more then his curve. His curve was hit very hard this year. Against the curve, batters have a .408 slugging percentage, compared to a .326 league average. Still, he'll want to use it against Jason Bartlett (.143 OPS against curve) and Dioner Navarro (.355 OPS against curve).
- B/R Ticket Guide
While Beckett has mowed down the Rays, Scott Kazmir has had a lot of trouble against Boston. In 18 innings, he has allowed 24 hits, walked 14 and has an ERA of nine. The Red Sox crush left handed sliders, and Kazmir's slider is no exception. The team had an OPS of 1.343 against Kazmir's slider this year.
Not coincidentally, Kazmir has thrown the pitch less than 12 percent of the time versus Boston in 2008. Opponents posted a terrible .556 OPS on Kazmir’s slider between 2005 and 2007, but that number has increased by 100 points this season. A career-high 75 percent of Kazmir’s pitches were fastballs in 2008, with opponents managing just a .697 OPS against the heater.
Willy Aybar and Evan Longoria should have good games. Aybar is five-for-15 against pitchers similar to Beckett. Longoria is slugging .533 against hard fastballs (over 92) and has a .333 well-hit average against Beckett in 12 at bats.
Jason Bay and Dustin Pedroia should come up big as well. Bay is crushing lefty fastballs and slugs .792 off pitchers similar to Kazmir dating back to 2007. Pedroia is 14-for-25 against Kazmir with a .529 well-hit average against his heater.
Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford should struggle. Baldelli has a feeble .308 OBP against pitchers similar to Beckett since last year. Crawford was just 1-for-10 against Beckett this season.
JD Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury should struggle as well. Drew can't touch Kazmir's fastball, one well hit ball put in play in seven at bats. Ellsbury is hitless against Kazmir in his career (0-for-14).
Prediction: Red Sox 6, Rays 3
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