For the majority of Red Sox Nation that will never be satisfied until the Red Sox fans are able to say "count the rings" to their Yankee brethren, tonight is a huge night.
The "must-win" game has become a cliché amongst sportswriters and players alike, and of course the Red Sox don't need to win Game Four, but it would certainly help.
But, after running with a three-man rotation in the ALDS against the Angels, Terry Francona's hand has been forced, and he will turn to his seemingly ageless knuckleballer, 42-year-old Tim Wakefield, to try and even the series.
But is Wakefield up to the challenge?
That and other questions weigh heavily on the minds of both Red Sox and Rays fans. I will do my best to try to answer this question and others to give these fans some peace of mind.
1. Will Wakefield's Knuckleball Cool Off the Rays' Hot Bats?
Wakefield once again had a season that everyone will forget because it was as ordinary as his past six seasons. 10-11, 181 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 25 home runs allowed, sounds like a pretty middling line for a starting pitcher, but if you have watched the Red Sox for the past five seasons, you will understand that Wakefield's value to the team is priceless.
But is he capable of shutting down the likes of B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria?
According to weather reports coming out of Boston, the wind should be blowing from the southwest at anywhere from 10-15 miles per hour. While the direction has the winds blowing towards right-field, making the park dangerous for flying baseballs, the speed of the wind should aid the movement of Wakefield's knuckleball.
With most pitchers, they either have great stuff that night or they are having an off night. Wakefield's night depends solely on whether or not his knuckleball can dance the night away, because if it doesn't, the Rays will have batting practice.
Some Rays hitters have had better success against Wakefield than others. Carl Crawford has a .305 batting average, Akinori Iwamura has a .417 batting average, and Evan Longoria has three hits in a small sampling. But at the same time, Carlos Pena has just one hit in 30 at-bats against Wakefield, and Upton has just five hits in 22 at-bats, all of them singles.
- B/R Ticket Guide
This is a different Rays team, but it wouldn't shock me to see Wakefield pitch effectively for six innings, especially since the Rays are used to seeing pitchers who throw a lot harder in Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett.
2. Is It Time to Start the Sean Casey Experiment and Give Jacoby Ellsbury Some Time Off?
Ellsbury is 0-for-14 in the ALCS, and he hasn't even been able to draw a walk in the series either. The logical move seems to put Coco Crisp back in center field, at least until Ellsbury can be awoken from the doldrums.
While Crisp has been successful lately (3-for-6 in the ALCS), he doesn't represent a significant offensive upgrade over Ellsbury, slump or not. Meanwhile, Casey, who hit at a .322 clip during the regular season, has been languishing on the bench, reduced to a cheerleader.
The Red Sox have the flexibility to move Mark Kotsay into center field to play with Jason Bay and J.D. Drew, and insert Sean Casey into the lineup, giving Boston their most dangerous lineup offensively.
Casey has never hit against Andy Sonnanstine, but with the exception of Grant Balfour, Casey has hit the rest of the Rays' relievers pretty well. Granted it's a small sampling of data, but Casey gives the Red Sox a potentially potent bat down near the bottom of the order.
It's true that the Red Sox will be sacrificing defense, given all the athletic plays Mark Kotsay has made at first base, but Casey played 45 games this season at first base and only made three errors.
While he might not be able to make the same diving catches Kotsay has made, it's clear that the offense has been struggling mightily, and Casey might be just the veteran leader to kick it in the pants.
3. Can the Red Sox Get to Andy Sonnanstine Early and Often?
Everyone and their mother knows that Sonnanstine is not the same type of pitcher as James Shields, Scott Kazmir, or even Matt Garza. He relies on control and craftiness in order to be successful, but his numbers have been relatively similar to Wakefield's this season.
He is carrying a 4.38 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and has allowed 21 HR. Numbers that are much better than what they were in 2007, but still a long way from dominant.
Unfortunately for Boston, he faced them twice during the regular season, both times in September, and blanked them both times in 13 innings. Zero runs and just seven innings in back-to-back wins for Sonnanstine over the Red Sox.
For the most part, those numbers can be tossed to the curb because everyone knows the postseason is a different animal completely. But if the Red Sox want to help Wakefield, and discourage the Rays, the better come out of the gates swinging and scoring.
The Rays look like winners and have a professional approach to the game, but they are still a young club, and neophytes to the postseason. If the Red Sox can score early and take a four or five-run lead, it is not difficult to envision the Rays becoming discouraged and letting the Red Sox cruise to the finish.
4. Will David Ortiz ever get something good to hit?
It pains me to watch one of the most likeable players on the Red Sox, not to mention one of their most dangerous hitters, be fed so much junk during a series.
Big Papi is 0-for-10 in the ALCS, and his slump has sparked debate about whether his wrist is really fully healed or not. Look, some can talk about his wrist all they want, but when it comes down to it, Ortiz feasts on mistake pitches, pitches he is not seeing as many of since Manny Ramirez left.
The big man has not been hitting very well, sure, but his skills haven't eroded. It's just that pitchers aren't afraid to give Ortiz something to hit because Ramirez is no longer offering protection in the lineup behind him.
The opposition has now realized they can just walk Ortiz (four walks in just 14 plate appearances) and there won't be any consequences because the hitters behind him have failed to make them pay for putting Ortiz on base.
He has faced plenty of right-handers in this series, but Sonnanstine offers the most mouth-watering options of slow fastballs that Ortiz can get his huge piece of lumber around on.
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about 1 month ago
Awesome article Michael...Your boys could be in some trouble..I don't think Wake gives you what you need tonight...But that's just me.
about 1 month ago
"If the Red Sox can score early and take a four or five run lead, it is not difficult to envision the Rays becoming discouraged and letting the Red Sox cruise to the finish."
I disagree with that, these Rays have heart like no other team I've seen in a long while.
Also, hasn't Bay knocked in Ortiz a number of times?
from about 1 month ago
Unfortunately, no, Bay has not knocked in Ortiz a number of times, the big fella has scored just two runs in the postseason, one in each series.
I want you to be wrong about the Rays hearts, we will see, they haven't been losing big in any game yet. I am hoping tonight is the night.
about 1 month ago
I believe In Wake...He has been there when we have needed him most...I believe that if we lose tonight cancel your trip back to Tampa, The Rays will sweep the Boston Trip!
about 1 month ago
Great article, I agree with you on all four points. Sonnanstine is steady but doesn't overpower batters like Shields, Kazmir (when healthy), and Garza can. One thing does concern me and that is this: when was the last time Wake pitched in a game that meant something?3 weeks? Could be rusty but hopefully he has enough to get the Sox through tonight. Go Sox!!
from about 1 month ago
I agree with you and Michael's views but I would be to worried about the Tim Wakefield, even he said it yesterday, that knuckle ball pitchers don't rust as quickly...
And Yea obviously Go Sox!
about 1 month ago
That was an ugly game, the knuckle ball was so flat when Longoria hit that bomb.
about 1 month ago
I thoroughly appreciated Francona's decision to go with Wakefield; when his knuckler is dancing, only a swift, fast softball swing is going to catch it. Wakefield also has a ton of experience. The downside is that knucklers tend to walk a ton of people and they are so easy to steal on.
Last night's game kind of stunned me. Wakefield's experience did not show; he seemed to throw his knuckler too fast and reduced its action, making it a batting practice pitch. It was over pretty quick and it wasn't pretty from a Sox perspective. These Rays are serious; they played hard and really never let up- like they were making a statement to the Fenway faithful.
The Sox pitchers (aside from Dice-K) have really been a surprising disappointment; and hats off to the Rays because they have hit just about every mistake the Boston hurlers have thrown. Ortiz has looked somewhat helpless at the plate without someone like Manny to protect him. That being said, the Rays' pitchers are pitching well.
Win or lose, this Rays team is a huge credit to their manager, coaching staff and front office; they are playing beyond their years. They are young, but they have obviously been taught correctly on how this game should be played and how to handle success.
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