Barring an unexpected turnaround, Cincinnati (0-6) and Kansas City (1-4) will be vying for the only good thing that comes with having the NFL's worst record. Detroit (0-6), Oakland (1-4) and St. Louis (1-4) are in contention as well (Houston and Seattle also have one win but I'm more bullish about their long-term prospects).
At this time last year, I pegged the three teams (Miami, St. Louis and Atlanta) that would finish in the NFL basement. My other projected bottom-feeders drafted No. 6 (New York Jets) and No. 9 (Cincinnati) respectively.
Here's my prediction for the bottom five squads in 2008 and which players they will choose in the first round.
NOTE: I've only included senior college prospects. The draft's entire complexion will change once underclassmen declare themselves eligible. Expect a slew of talented juniors and third-year sophomores to turn pro because the NFL will be pushing for a rookie salary cap in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Such a system could be implemented by 2010 if the league can reach early agreement on a CBA extension with the NFL Players Association.
1. KANSAS CITY (1-4)
Remaining strength of schedule: 32-29 (.525 winning percentage). None of Kansas City's next six opponents has a losing record.
Reason for optimism: Chiefs coach Herm Edwards is known as a great motivator, which means he should at least get inspired play out of a roster featuring 33 players with three years or less of NFL experience. Quarterback Brodie Croyle (shoulder) is expected to return Sunday against Tennessee after missing the past four games.
Reason for pessimism: Croyle has lost all seven of his NFL starts and will have even less to work with offensively if his top receiving target -- tight end Tony Gonzalez -- is dealt before the NFL's trade deadline. Kansas City's defensive line is a mess. The Chiefs rank last in the league in sacks (3) and run defense (182.2-yard average).
And the Chiefs select: Louisiana State defensive end Tyson Jackson. The Chiefs need more offensive firepower but there may not be a skill-position player worth selecting in the top five. The 6-foot-5, 291-pound Jackson is an outstanding all-around player who can fill the void created by April's trade of Pro Bowl end Jared Allen to Minnesota. Jackson and Chiefs 2008 first-round pick Glenn Dorsey also were teammates on LSU's national championship team last season.
2. CINCINNATI (0-6)
Remaining strength of schedule: 27-26 (.509 winning percentage). The Bengals play six of their final 10 games at home.
Reason for optimism: Quarterback Carson Palmer (elbow) hasn't been ruled out for the season -- yet. The Bengals hope that further rest will correct the problem rather than season-ending "Tommy John" ligament replacement surgery.
Reason for pessimism: An offense that struggled when Palmer was healthy is even worse under backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. "We're pretty much inept," coordinator Bob Bratkowski told the Cincinnati Enquirer after Sunday's 26-14 road loss to the New York Jets. That ineptitude is proving too much for an average defense to overcome.
And the Bengals select:
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about 1 month ago
Great article. I think that the Lions will grab the #1 pick honors.
Interesting to see that you got 5 defensive players going first. We'll have to see how this turns out.
about 1 month ago
After attending the Chiefs game yesterday I would definitely say that their isn't a team playing worse than them right now.
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