Dear Mr. Epstein,
So the team you constructed this season (or let construct itself) didn't manage to repeat as World Champions. Unfortunately, you can't win them all, as much as we here in New England would like that.
All in all, the season was a moderate success. Expectations are always a little too high here in Boston, but most folks still think that the team you built was a solid one. After all, it's not your fault that so many key players in all aspects of the game decided to get injured right in time for the playoffs.
Now it's time to really earn your money. You are constantly lauded as one of the best GM's in all of baseball, and most people around the country really believe that.
That being said, you have had your genius moves (trading Nomar for Cabrera and others), and you have had your stupid moves (the contracts for Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo).
I am not afraid of you making a mistake based on a lack of better pressure. I am worried that you will succumb to pressure, get desperate, and make a move that doesn't make sense and you will regret in the future.
That's why I have constructed a cheat sheet for you to study from whenever you are having an introspective moment, really doing some soul-searching. I hope this list provides you with both inspiration and common sense as you try to return by beloved baseball team to their rightful place atop the game.
Please do not try and sign A.J. Burnett
The free-agent starting pitching market is thin in 2009. The top choices seem to be Derek Lowe, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett, not to mention the trade possibilities for Jake Peavy.
Unfortunately for Boston, neither Peavy nor Sabathia seem really all that interested in leaving the pitcher-friendly National League. Also, if either of them do explore the possibilities of a switch to the East Coast, you can bet the bank that Hank Steinbrenner will mortgage everything he owns to make sure neither of those two players end up in anything other than pinstripes.
Lowe has expressed interest in Boston and seems like he would be a great fit with his old team. But he is represented by Scott Boras, whose act is getting quite tiresome on Yawkey Way, so that bridge might be too badly burned to be repaired.
So now the rumors emanating from your offices are that you are seriously considering making a run at A.J. Burnett, the incredibly talented and equally erratic 32 year old.
Right around now is when you should pick up this letter, read the following paragraphs, and then re-evaluate whether you are really prepared to bring a pitcher like Burnett into Fenway Park and expect him to succeed.
Exhibit A is that, because of the dearth of successful starting pitchers in this year's free-agent class, A.J. Burnett is sure to command attention from any team in the market for a starting pitcher.
If you want a concrete number of how many teams are interested, in their "Truth and Rumors" section, SI.com listed nine different teams who were all seriously considering Burnett.
We both know that the demand for Burnett will only drive his price tag through the roof, soon teams will drop out, and while you have the necessary funds to win the bidding war, be careful what you wish for; the Yankees are still trying to find new ways to forget about Carl Pavano.
The similarities with Pavano do not end with the exorbitant price tag. If you may remember, Pavano has a history of minor injuries, then had a break out year, collected a fat paycheck and bonus from the Yankees, and then starting getting injured again.
A.J. Burnett has pitched over 200 innings just three times in his semi-illustrious 10-year career. In fact, he has pitched under 165 innings in a season six times in his career, including three such seasons in his past five years.
Are you really ready to roll the dice on the next possible Matt Clement and watch Burnett collect checks and sit on the bench?
Maybe it would be worth it if Burnett was just a little more consistent in his performances as well. Although his career ERA (3.81) is not terrible, his career WHIP is 1.28, and he walked more hitters this past season (86) than he has since 2002.
Burnett is able to continue to make a living because he has incredible stuff, which is great, but not inspiring at the same time. He might be the least Moneyball pitcher in the past five years.
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2 months ago
I want to apologize for the font changes...to those editing, we should get a font change idea, or find another way to do it....it's frustrating
2 months ago
Michael, great points, but do you really think the Sox need to dump money into Tex? I think finding a 3b would be more prudent, perhaps someone younger with substantial upside. Atkins is not a good hitter away from Coors and is coming off one of his worst seasons. There really is not alot of attractive options on the FA market, unless the team decides to sign a backup lifer type player, so a trade is in order. Perhaps someone like Kouzmanoff from San Diego, as the emrgence of Chase Headley's skills overall and Scott Hariston suddenly coming to life in the OF might allow for the two teams to partner up. If I am not mistaken SD was interested in Crisp not too long ago. While the Kouz did not post great numbers this year, he is going to be 28 and could provide a nice stop gap/platoon partner for Lowell until his contact is up or the farmhands are ready.
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