In a league that sports pitchers like Scott Kazmir, Jon Lester, Chin Ming Wang, Andy Pettite, Dice-K, Roy Halladay and Jared Weaver the arms of the American League Central Division often get over-looked.
In the recent past, you could have included Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia in that list but now they have moved on to the National League. What does this leave the AL Central?
A lot of great arms! And here is my run down of the best arms in the AL Central, my AL Central All Start Starting Rotation, if you will.
No. 1 Starter: Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians, 22-3, 2.54, 223.1IP, 170K
I will put it in writing, right here, right now. Cliff Lee should be the American League Cy Young Award Winner for 2008. No questions asked. If the Indians had won the AL Central you would say that Cliff led them to the total winning 22 games on the way to the crown. But they didn't win the division. As a matter of fact the offensively challenged Indians finished in third place at a mediocre 81-81.
One more point of interest is that Lee only started 31 games, the fewest on my list, and won 22 of them. So the question is, how good was Cliff Lee in 2008? He was C.C. Sabathia good...Johan Santana good and better than anyone else in my previous list. Period.
No. 2 Starter: Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals, 13-10, 3.47, 202.1IP, 183K
This may seem controversial to put someone with a 13-10 record as my No.2 starter. But I'll defend Greinke to the grave. He won 13 games, posted a fantastic 3.47 over 200+ innings and fanned a division best (tie) 183 batters. His K/9 ratio was the best in the division among it's regular starters and managed all this on a team that only won 75 games. How good would he be on a team that scored some runs?
- B/R Ticket Guide
No. 3 Starter: Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox, 15-12, 3.79, 218.2IP, 140K
This was a bit more difficult call than Lee or Greinke. Lee's numbers speak for themselves, while Buehrle's require some real comparison to the rest of my list.
I slot him No.3 for two key reasons: He threw 218 innings and his ERA was 3.79 over those innings. He is the type of starter that not only eats innings, but does so with quality and consistency. By way of comparison, Javier Vazquez threw more innings than Buehrle but sported an ERA approaching five.
No. 4 Starter: Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox, 17-8, 3.84, 206.1IP, 145K
Wow, if I were the Phillies I would be kicking myself for trading Floyd. He had such promise but just couldn't put it together. Until now. Floyd's breakout season couldn't have come at a better time for the White Sox. Why is a 17 game winner so low on my list? Largely because if you put Greinke on the White Sox he would have won 17-18 and if you put Floyd on the Royals I see him as a .500 pitcher.
He logged some serious innings and did have an ERA below four, but not by much. And without the White Sox offense, I don't see him as an elite pitcher. But this was a great season for him, so you can't leave him off the list!
No. 5 Starter: Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals, 14-11, 3.98, 210.1, 183K
Meche's numbers were very good. You can't argue with that. He logged 210+ innings, struck out 183 batters and won 14 games on a fourth place team. He was a solid performer all year for the offensively challenged Royals.
I went back and forth about him either sitting at No.4 or No.5 but his slightly higher ERA and three less wins dropped him below Floyd. I'd rather have someone keep people off the bases than strike them out.
Honorable Mentions:
Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins
Javier Vazquez, Chicago White Sox
Armando Gallaraga, Detroit Tigers (This kid is going to be GOOD)
So there it is, my starting rotation taken completely from the American League Central. It is formidable and sports some great arms. The thing I find interesting about looking at the stats is that it is not simply a list of No.1 starters from each team. No one from Minnesota or Detroit made the list and the Twins finished with 88 wins and one game behind the White Sox.
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2 months ago
Great idea, I love it when someone is helping to hype the AL Central. Keep up the great work. I thought it odd that neither of Scott Baker or Francisco Liriano made the list from the Twins, or the White Sox' best pitcher this season John Danks. Heck, I'd still say Verlander after his down year.
If I had to list a 5-man rotation from the central, I'd go:
1. Lee
2. Liriano
3. Verlander
4. Greinke
5. Baker or Vazquez (can't decide)
from 2 months ago
I like all the names you threw out there, but this year their stats weren't there. Perhaps my next article will be on the rotation based on historical stats... I'd love a healthy Liriano! But look at Baker, Liriano and Verlander's numbers, very sub-par for them when you take into account wins, innings, ERA and strikeouts. I was a little shocked that no one on the Twins staff had above average numbers.
Danks is another guy I like, but he didn't put in the innings that Buehrle and Floyd did. And that probably translated into his other stats being sub-par as well...
2 months ago
Hate to be the new guy taking on the more established vets, but Bruce I think the exclusion of Danks was an error. His final line was: 33 GS 195 IP 3.32 ERA 159 K 12 W 9 L 1.23 WHIP AND he's 23!!
He's shown he is an aggressive fireballer from Texas who is durable. So what if he didn't eclipse the 200 IP mark? He's 23! He started more games than everyone on this list but Marky Mark and Meche. Pre AS break he was downright dominant, posting a 2.67 in 114.2 IP with 94 Ks. Now yes he lagged somewhat after the break, but this was his first full year as a starter and Ozzie seemed to be one of the quicker managers to dip into his bullpen ( who could blame him, as he had one of the better pens in baseball, and def. one of the best pens in the Central). I'm not completely sure how you are balancing your criteria, but I think Danks def. deserves the nod over Meche. Look at the splits for Meche, the numbers support Danks over Meche and quite frankly Meche isn't really a dominant type of pitcher. Danks is the type of pitcher who can be solid every 5th day and profiles/has the stuff to be able to be dominant every 5th day.
I also agree that the Twins were somewhat snubbed on the list, but do agree that Marky Mark and even Floyd should be in the mix. However, as far as Meche, I think he needs to get the boot. He didn't have any substantial dominant stretch that matched Danks' first half and I dont think Danks should be punished for his manager's eagerness to go to his pen in situations.
from 2 months ago
Carlo, totally understandable. And Danks numbers are more than respectable however he didn't throw 200 innings, only won 12 games and that was on the division champions. Those were the reasons he didn't make my list, I am certain that both he and Gallaraga are going to be forces to be reckoned with for many years to come.
Regarding comparing Danks to Meche, I disagree. Meche can be dominating and he pitched on a team that won 13 games fewer than Danks and most of his numbers (wins, IP, K's) were better than Danks. I agree that it may be because his manager didn't have faith in him or because he was young and they wanted to limit his innings (although he did throw 195). His numbers were just a little short compared to Meche.
And I wouldn't say the Twins were snubbed, more-so that I was surprised that in spite of their record none of their pitchers numbers were really impressive. The list encompasses the entire season, not just the first half where other pitchers may have been dominant, but the whole 162 games and these guys were stand outs within the division.
That being said, Danks can be on my team any day!
2 months ago
Bruce, understood on the stats you were looking at. And I'd like to ammend my previous post, Danks did start 26 games in 2007. Yes, W, IP, and K's were greater. However let's look at those stats that are more indictave of a pitcher's individual skill. Let's face it, IP, W, and to a lesser extent Ks (as there is relation between K's and IP) are influenced by other factors to a greater extent than stats like WHIP, BAA, OBP, SLG, K/9, K/BB and OPS. Now no I am not suggesting that you tank stats like W, Ks, and IP, rather I am suggesting that you expand your comparisons to include these sabermetric stats as these are the stats are more indicitive of an individual pitcher's accomplishments/talent/skill.
K/9 K/BB AVG OBP SLG OPS W% RS
Pitcher A: 7.83 2.51 .255 .314 .392 .704 .560 4.45
Pitcher B: 7.34 2.79 .246 .303 .371 .673 .571 4.20
Very close as you can see. Now obviously one of these is Danks and one is Meche. As far as your arguments as to how many games each won, I really don't see how that is a reliable indicator of their skills. However since you seem to use wins in your equations, I've added the winning percentage above for each respective pitcher. Also you will find the run support for each pitcher above as well. One could also look to saves vs. blown saves but Chicago blew only 2 more saves, so that really seems to be a moot point.
Pitcher A is Meche and Pitcher B is Danks. I find it quite interesting that the pitcher with a slightly lower RS and who has less IP (but seriously are you going to hold 15 IP against Danks??) had a higher W%. Additionally, while Meche gets the edge on K/9, everything else is in favor of Danks.
Now I don't expect to sway your opinion at all, but merely to expose the problems that can arise when a judgment of pitchers seems to rely on W, IP, K's, and ERA.
Also I'm very curious as to what you meant in your response to Michael when you said "And that probably translated into his other stats being sub-par as well..." in reference to Danks. If the "subpar" numbers include his ERA, then I don't see how Meche makes it on the list as his ERA is more than half a run higher than Danks'
Looking forward to everyone's thoughts.
from 2 months ago
Carlo -- I will admit that Danks is just as viable a candidate for this list as Meche is. Your numbers most certainly support your argument and I hear that you are questioning the stats I use to make the list. And that is fine, I am aware that the numbers I am using are "soft" numbers. Stats like Wins and ERA are very much dependent on factors outside of most pitchers control. Run support, manager's mood, rain, wind and how tight their underwear is can all factor in to these numbers which make them, to some degree, an unfair reflection of the pitchers skill level.
But the list isn't about the pitchers skill level alone. It is as much about the intangible effect that pitcher has on the team around him. How many starts does his team win when he takes the mound? And, while I will agree you shouldn't let 15IP denounce the year Danks had the numbers you gave me were very similar between the Danks and Meche. Would you say that a .009 AVG Against is enough to quantify a difference between the two pitchers? What would have happened to that number had Danks been left in his starts for 1 extra inning per start which would have put him just over the IP that Meche had?
We don't know.
Is .25 runs per game considered more run support? I would say that it does not. I would call that fairly even -- except for the fact that Danks pitched on the division winning team. That looks to me like the White Sox went and took a nap when Danks would pitch relative to Meche's numbers. But 4 runs per game still isn't bad. And quite frankly, I would think it should have translated into more W's for Danks.
I think your argument is a sound one, and you have made me appreciate Danks a little bit more than I had before. But this list is about soft numbers, the kind of numbers that people consider for the Cy Young. No one looks at run support or OPS when they pick the Cy Young.
Oh, and to respond to my "sub par" comment, I simply meant that the numbers were just a little below what would have made the list. I am, by no means, suggesting that Danks is a below average pitcher. My list was created to indicate just the opposite, in fact. Many people overlook and ignore the talent that comes out of the AL Central. They focus so heavily on the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and similar big markets that unless you are Johan Santana you get ignored.
from 2 months ago
---- Carlo I would say that I snubbed Danks by not including him in my "Honorable Mention" category.
2 months ago
Bruce well I'm glad and surprised that I was able to convince you to move Danks to your HM section. However since you admitted to using the "soft" stats, I think it is in order that a column be written using the more modern stats that are indicative of a pitchers talent. Perhaps something I will undertake at some point this week.
As far as the Cy Young voters, while the majority probably do still use the "soft" numbers, there seems to be a growing movement, due in large part to SABR and the fantasy community, of voters who are using SOME of the sabrmetric numbers as part of their equation.
Also while I realize that this is a list based on last year's numbers I think that a list of best pitchers going foward in the division, something else I might undertake this week, would look drastically different. Danks would not only be on the list but most likely near the top due to his drastic improvement from 07-08, his age, and his talent profile. Someone like Meche would most likely get the boot as he is on the tail end and while he is a solid #3 ( let's be honest, put him anywhere but SEA during his contract year or KC and that is what he is at best), he doesn't really show any signs of becoming drastically better. Off the top of my head I suspect 1-2 Twins' arms other than Liriano would also make the list.
from 2 months ago
Carlo -- that would be a good comparison. Taking the historically used softer stats that I used and comparing them to the sabermeteric stats that are gaining more and more support. My article was meant to shine some light on some good work done this season. It was not meant to forecast anything... although I would be shocked if Floyd put together another season remotely like this. And you are 100% correct, Meche fell into a pile of gold his free agent year, no question. And is most certainly not going to get better! That is a big concern for KC fans right now, you have maybe 2 more years of quality starts out of Meche then his #2/#3 performing days are over... Bannister wake up!
2 months ago
I'm going to agree with Carlo here but most of my argument is not based off numbers.
Danks was absolute nails against the Twins in that play-in game. Watching him pitch, he IS the best starter the White Sox have. That's the feeling I get..
If you want to include n umbers..
A reason John Danks only won 12 games and Floyd won 17 was because of run support. Aside from Felix Hernandez, among the top 20 pitchers in ERA in the AL, Danks had the lowest number. 4.2 runs per game. Floyd had 6.5 runs per game.
Danks also gave up half the number of home runs, pitching in a park that gives up a lot of them.
I think John Danks has a higher ceiling and will only get better as well. All the numbers are great to argue about... But watching Danks this year, I get the feeling he's going to be the ace of that Chicago staff.
Great list though.
from 2 months ago
Nino,
I agree 100% with how good Danks is.
My list is based purely on the numbers the pitchers put up, that's all. I will do an article on the best pitchers -- perhaps I should have appended "of 2008" on the title. And, like I said in the article -- I don't believe Floyd is as good as his numbers say he is. And having watched Floyd fumble through his time in Philadelphia on teams that has no offense -- I agree with your assessment.
But my list is based purely on the soft numbers that are generally used for awards.
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