As part my ongoing quest to completely make a fool of myself with predictions and thoughts, I think it would be fitting if I try and predict the most important hot-stove stories this offseason.
This is my first "Smart Guy" piece, something I wrote the day after the Brewers were eliminated from postseason play. I've made some adjustments to it after the recent news of a contract offer; however, it is still very relevant and still accurately conveys my thoughts.
I was ready to get over it and move on, I really was.
But for some reason, he just keeps coming back to me, and I can't let the idea go.
To suggest that CC Sabathia would consider the Cleveland Indians at this point would be equal to asking Manny Ramirez to consider the Boston Red Sox this winter.
Okay, maybe not equal to, but pretty darn close, especially since he already spent a cool $12,000 on his farewell advertisement.
I'm not here to suggest that; I've gotten over the fact that Sabathia is long-gone from my beloved Tribe.
I'm here merely to suggest my smart guy commentary on where I think Sabathia is destined to pitch.
I've read the comments, and I continue to analyze the path of Sabathia that he's destined to follow. After the Brewers were eliminated from the playoffs this past weekend, the focus immediately shifted to Sabathia's future.
The main question that most people were asking was, "How much money is this ace going to command?"
The main answer is simply this...Who cares? That isn't what CC is after; I've learned that in my experience on this topic.
There are three main factors that CC is going to base his decision off of. We will come to find out how much he values the dollar, but I'm full convinced that it matters none; he knows he's getting paid.
The last two factors are location and length of contract.
I've been on the side that location is the most important factor for CC Sabathia in making his choice. I can emphatically say that I was dead wrong.
CC is going to play for a contender, because a team that gets him is an instant contender, provided that they aren't the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Washington Nationals.
CC Sabathia won't be signing with the Washington Nationals; I'm sorry to any National fan out there reading this. A non-contender won't have the money to spend on CC, so it totally wipes out that entire issue of "playing for a contender."
What is Happiness? How do we define it? How do we know what it means to Sabathia himself?
Sabathia will be happy winning. He's a great guy who adapts to his surroundings well, as long as he has a good group of players around him. He has no trouble making friends, as he told reporters the other day.
"I've pretty much been to every city. I've got a lot of friends around the league. They're going to have to come to me."
I've seen how a team loves the big left-hander and how he loves the team. He will have no trouble fitting into any clubhouse, as long as they like to have fun playing the game. If there is an uptight or stiff clubhouse around the majors, I'm sure CC can find out and eliminate that team from his choices.
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2 months ago
Why do you assert that a non-contender could not afford Sabathia? The Giants were a non-contender when they dished out the cash for Zito. The Rangers were a non-contender when they dished out the cash for Rodriguez. The Rockies were a non-contender when they paid a king's ransom for Hampton. So why disregard the Nationals and Pirates because they are 'non-contenders'?
The fact is, there are very few teams that cannot afford Sabathia. However, there are a lot of teams that wish not to lock up that much of their payroll on a single player. Arte Moreno was quoted last offseason as stating that he would not go after ARod because no one player is worth 20-25% of a teams payroll. Moreno could certainly afford ARod, however his perception of value and worth makes Rodriguez unaffordable.
That aside, I've got Sabathia going to the Angels on a long-term, discounted, type contract. 7yrs for $100-115M. The club could use a left handed starter, and there isn't a guarantee that Lackey returns after the 2009 season.
from 2 months ago
From Sabathia's standpoint I disregard non-contenders from the equation. I think CC wants to win, so he's not going to waste his time in Pittsburgh or Washington, who are a little further away from contending than other teams are.
The Pirates are an awful example though. Not sure what you are trying to prove with using them though. Their owner isn't interested in making that type of move even if it was possibly feasible.
If the Angels don't go after Teixeira, I think they'll go after Sabathia. What do they need more though? A first baseman or another starter? Long term I think they might need a pitcher, based off the point on Lackey.
from 2 months ago
Over 7 years Calvin? or 6? I'll assume 7, but either way that'd be hard for him to turn down.
from 2 months ago
Nino and Calvin,
While CC HOPES to go to a winner, don't let his act fool you, money is #1. He isn't going to turn down an extra $2-4M a year to be on a winner. If he was truly interested in being with a winner, he never would have rejected the proposed deal from Cleveland entering this season, nor would he have rejected the deal that is recently reported to have been offered to him from Milwaukee. Fact is, he's after money, just like you or I would be.
I wouldn't count Pittsburgh as a terrible decision. The club has been open to the fact that they are not in 'sell' mode, although they are 'rebuilding'. These are two different topics. Selling refers to simply cutting payroll, which would mean Jack Wilson would have been dealt at the deadline.
If Huntington, who has a relationship with Sabathia, feels that CC is the ideal player to build around, I doubt that the ballclub that allowed him to hand out a $6M+ bonus to a draft pick will tell their man he can't spend money in free agency. I agree that it is doubtful, but unfortunately, the club has enough money to make it happen-in fact, its more likely Sabathia goes to Pittsburgh then Cleveland as there is NO WAY Cleveland steps up with an offer of over $20M a year.
from 2 months ago
He's after long term commitment.. 2 million per year isn't going to make a difference... 2 years will. I really believe that if the Indians would have stepped up and offered him an extra year, probably two, he would have taken that deal in a heartbeat. But a four year deal for that caliber of a pitcher isn't smart. He'll make more money with a 7 year contract for 20 million than he will a 4 year contract for 25 million.
It is about money, but how much money over the long haul is my point.
I disagree with you that he Hopes to play for a winner. He wants to win and he'll make sure the place he is going to will do that. Even if it is at the expense of a few millions.
from 2 months ago
Nino,
A lot of players say that, but when the offers are on the table, very few say no to the money at a chance to win. Especially smart players signing long term deals.
The point does remain, that a winner is probably the 3rd or 4th most important thing to Sabathia. Money and commitment are number one and two respectively.
I do wonder about your theory that 7yrs at $20M is better then 4yrs at $25M. Entering his age 29 season, a 7 year contract would essentially bring him to the end of his career. At age 36 he can't figure to sign for another contract of greater then 2 years-although the market may differ in 7 years. By comparison, at the end of a 4 year contract, he will be 33 and a 3 year contract of just over $13M a year is not totally unreasonable. In fact, a 5 year deal, at $15M would not be out of the question.
Health may be a concern for the big man, but I would prefer a higher AAS over a longer deal. I think the reason Sabathia rejected Cleveland and Milwaukee's offers is because he feels he can get that average annual salary for 7 years.
from 2 months ago
I just want to know what his agents are telling him.. It's the matter of what you were talking about.. Health? Is CC guaranteed to hold up for five more years at this level?
I don't know, I just think starting pitchers in this position are more primed to take the longer contract because of the unknown there is with things like injuries.
This all may be just talk though. Because ya he might be able to get both the long contract and the big money per year.
from 2 months ago
I wouldn't be surprised to see him take a contract similar to the one that AJ Burnett took, albeit at a far greater AAS.
2 months ago
The Yanks will dangle the money in front of him. Whether or not he takes it, I don't know.
2 months ago
HE wants to play for a winner, HIS AGENT wants him to go where the money is, bottom line. The more money CC gets, the more money his agent gets. It doesn't take a "smart guy" to know that the agents are evil. I can't believe sport stars aren't smart enough to figure out that $50mil/5yrs is better than $55mil/6yrs.
Too often in this game, players let their agents get the best of them and follow the money to teams that might only have one good year over the players' six year deal.
The decision is CC's and CC's alone. I feel he is smart enough to know where he wants to go. Granted, I'm speaking as a Brewer fan, and hope the Crew can get him back. If they can't, I sure hope he won't go to NYC just because they have all the $$$$.
He's most likely going to end up back home, on one of the L.A. teams.
about 1 month ago
Home for Sabathia is either the Giants (who aren't contenders by any definition of the word) or Oakland (who can't afford him) - he's from Vallejo, I think.
I wish he would take a discount to be back in the Bay Area, but I'm sure he won't. Giants fans can only dream about a Lincecum, Sabathia, Cain, Bumgarner, and Sanchez staff in the near future. I don't care who's in the lineup, that would have been a dominant rotation.
I think you're right, though, both L.A. teams can throw the cash at him and are contenders. He did so well against National League hitters, the Dodgers probably look better to him right now. Hopefully, his Bay Area roots will come though and he won't sign with either L.A. team.
The Yankees, although they'd have a chance with Sabathia, might be a 3rd-place team in their own division again next year.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah the Bay Area is home, but LA is closer to home than say New York.. so..
I just hope CC does whatever makes CC happy.. If that's money, great.. I just don't want him to go to New York and regret it because of the media pressure.
from about 1 month ago
Just some wishful thinking from a Giants fan haha.
I think CC would deal with the pressure of an astronomical contract (even more astronomical if he signs with the Yankees), and the added pressure of trying to bring the World Series back to New York very well. He seems like a good guy who knows what's important, and I'm sure his family will factor into the decision as well.
From a baseball perspective, he wouldn't get to bat with the Yankees (you never know what can be a deciding factor), but every series against the Red Sox or even the Rays would have a playoff atmosphere. And of course, there's the whole Yankee Stadium, possibly be part of the first championship teams in the new park angle as well. And the fact that the Yankees might try and add yet another big bat. Run support will not be an issue most starts.
about 1 month ago
I think it generally tends to work out that a team willing to put that much into a free agent is adding the "final piece" to the puzzle. If you're "building around" someone, they're usually homegrown or traded for while young.
I do agree that only a contender or a big market team (often, one in the same) will want to lock up that kind of money - especially on a pitcher. If you think about the Giants as the exception with Zito, they actually may have thought they were close to contending; a Zito, Lincecum, Cain 1-2-3 may have put them in a position to win quite a few. Or, they may have just been trying to make up for the loss of Bonds.
Either way, Sabathia will go to the Yankees, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Brewers, etc... notice how they're all contenders most of the time? I'm sure he'll want to make money, win, and feel secure with a long-term contract. He'll go somewhere on a BIG contract for 6 or 7 years, giving that team a chance to win every 5th day (or at his rate, every 3rd day). Which team, I don't know. But I can guarantee it won't be the Pirates.
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