Spread Eagle: Week 10 NFL Picks (1-0)

Matt's Pats BlogAnalyst INovember 6, 2008

(home team in bold)


Broncos (+3.5) over Browns [WIN]
Welcome back to Thursday night football, where millions of fans are stranded between Time Warner and Cablevision and are forced to watch the 17th season of ER. Well, at least you can watch "live coverage" on NFL.com. The NFL needs to wake up and take a page out of baseball's book and just offer an online season pass to watch all the games online…

SUNDAY, 1:00

Vikings (-2.5) over Packers
This is one of a small handful of great divisional rivalries in week 10 with big implications. Both of these teams are 4-4 and need a win to help their playoff chances and to keep up with Chicago, who is one game up heading into Sunday. With how competitive the NFC East and South divisions are, a 4-5 record does not bode well for a wildcard berth.

Patriots (-3.5) over Bills
Add this onto said list of great divisional rivalries with implications. A three-way tie for first in the AFC East means that this is a must-win for both teams. The Bills are skidding into this game, having lost back-to-back AFC East games and nine straight games against the Pats.

The key to this game, though, is going to be whether or not the Bills can get Marshawn Lynch going. In Buffalo's five wins, he's averaged 20 carries per game; in their three losses, he's averaged only 11. In addition, six of his seven rushing TDs have come in those wins. If the Pats keep him from being contained, they'll likely be heading into week 11 for a matchup with the Jets in a battle for first place. On that note…

Rams (+7.5) over Jets
The Rams are a team that can't be over-looked. I don't necessarily see them losing this game, but 7.5 is a big spread for a somewhat inconsistent Jets team to cover.

Jaguars (-6.5) over Lions
Until proven otherwise with Detroit…

Dolphins (-9.5) over Seahawks
Another big spread, but the Seahawks' only two wins have come against the Niners and pre-Haslett Rams. Everyone (including myself) is talking about the three-way tie in the AFC East, but people need to keep an eye on the Fish, who are only a game out of first and could make a silent run.

Falcons (-.5) over Saints
This one is looking to be a shoot-out, with two solid offenses going against equally bad defenses. It was very, very difficult to pick against the Saints in this one, but the Falcons have yet to lose at home this season and something just seems right about this one. You might have more fun taking the over (48.5) though…

Ravens (+.5) over Texans
Has anyone taken a look at Joe Flacco's stats over the past three games? He's throwing for over 200 yards and has produced five TDs and 0 turnovers. If he can keep that up, the Ravens should breeze through this one.

Bears (+3.5) over Titans
Let's put it this way: if the Bears don't come through this week, then the Titans' next five games are against teams who are a combined 13 games under .500. This means that the Tennessee Titans have a legitimate chance of going 14-0 heading into their final two games against Pittsburgh and Indy. Yes, the Tennessee Titans have a legitimate shot of going 14-0.

SUNDAY, 4:05

Panthers (-8.5) over Raiders
Tune in to this one for the DeAngelo Williams show. The Raiders have averaged an embarrassing seven points per game over their last four. John Kasay might outscore them in just extra points on Sunday.

Colts (+3.5) over Steelers
Indianapolis is scary, sitting pretty at 4-4 with upcoming games against Houston, Cleveland, Cinci, Detroit and Jacksonville, as well as revenge games against the Chargers and Titans, and they could all-of-a-sudden be the favorite to take an AFC wildcard.

Chargers (-14.5) over Chiefs
This game could get ugly, with the Bolts coming off a bye week and the Chiefs still reeling from blowing two winnable games in a row. Had they not blown those leads against the Jets and then the Bucs at home, these two teams would have the same record going into this week. How 'bout that one?

SUNDAY, 8:15

Eagles (-2.5) over Giants
This is going to be a great one for a national TV audience. Both teams rank in the top five in defense, but the Giants move the ball on the ground and the Eagles do so through the air. The G-men still have a two-game lead in the division, so this is a much more important game for the Birds. Look for them to blitz the snot out of Eli in hopes of forcing him to make mistakes.

MONDAY, 8:30

Cardinals (-9.5) over 49ers
It's as simple as this: the Niners have lost five in a row, giving up an average of 33 points in those games; the Cardinals have scored 33 points per game in their last five. Look for the league's best offense to completely embarrass the league's 30th ranked defense in the national spotlight.