Pirates’ center-fielder Nate McLouth won his first Gold Glove last week. The baseball statistics community is not impressed.
ESPN analyst Rob Neyer may have the harshest words for McLouth. At the very least, his sentiments were hard to top: He referred to McLouth receiving the award as a “horrible joke” in a Nov. 5 blog entry.
Neyer cites reliable statistics, such as John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, Baseball Prospectus, and Bill James’ win shares, to make his case against McLouth’s fielding prowess. In fact, all three metrics point to McLouth being a well below-average outfielder.
Neyer is also correct in pointing out that the fact that McLouth made only one error all year probably had a significant impact on voters, perhaps more than it should. That statistic, combined with McLouth’s emergence on a national stage this season and his crucial assist in the All-Star Game, undoubtedly helped sway voters in his direction.
- B/R Ticket Guide
But McLouth’s performance in center field for the Pirates this season has belied the statistics. I realize this argument is almost always made when defending players who have poor statistical years—I’m not trying to make a Jason Varitek “clutch” argument.
What I do know, though, is that I watched a fair amount of Pirate games this season, and I saw very few plays that McLouth failed to make that I thought he should have made.
Granted making such an estimate is sometimes hard to do—if a player gets an awful jump, for example, the camera might not catch this as it is still focused on the batter—but it is not so difficult that one of the league’s worst outfielders would suddenly look like an above-average fielder.
So what do the statistics mean? They likely mean that McLouth didn’t deserve his Gold Glove—a lot of work has gone into the development of these stats and they are usually pretty reliable, so they probably aren’t dead wrong when applied to McLouth.
But at the same time, the fact that McLouth looked good on film throughout the season isn’t entirely worthless. Our eyes don’t just deceive us, and there is some level of arbitrariness in statistics as well.
Instead, McLouth is a relatively average center-fielder. He doesn’t get the best jump off the crack of the bat, but he closes well and hardly ever makes a mistake when he does get to the ball.
Luckily for the Pirates, McLouth won’t be an average center-fielder much longer—as early as next season, he will become an above-average corner outfielder, as star prospect Andrew McCutchen will take over the reigns in center.
Hopefully McLouth’s statistics will look a little better then.
comments (8) write a comment »
write a new comment
about 1 month ago
I agree with your analysis. McLouth is an above average corner infielder but he doesn't have the natural instinct for the immediate ball-off-the-bat jump. It's hard for me to think of others who are more deserving than him because I don't get to watch too much NL action, but I've heard Arizona's Chris Young was another candidate.
about 1 month ago
"But at the same time, the fact that McLouth looked good on film throughout the season isn’t entirely worthless. Our eyes don’t just deceive us..."
Actually, our eyes do deceive us. For every highlight reel catch that McLouth made, the assumption is that the catch was WORTHY of being on a highlight reel. Meaning, the player went to extraordinary lengths to make the play.
Could this be incorrect? DEFINITELY!
Think how many times you've seen a player out of position? Or take a wrong read on a ball, forcing a last second adjustment? How about getting off to a slow start? Or possibly the player doesn't have the tracking speed of superior fielders?
Are you telling me that the quick 3 second snippits that we saw of McLouth this year gave us all of that information?
That's where the numbers come in. The numbers explain to us where the player SHOULD have been and what balls he SHOULD have gotten to. These numbers are based on watching every play of every game and charting the plays that player X made compared to player Y.
Take this for example. You are playing short stop, with limited range (meaning you can only get to balls within a couple feet of you in either direction). If you have to dive for every ball that is 4 feet to your left, get up to your feet and make an accurate throw, does that mean you made a superior play to me who took 3 steps, bent over and fired a strike to first? Simply because yours 'looks' better?
Our eyes tell us what LOOKS better, not what IS better.
from about 1 month ago
Brandon,
I think you make a lot of good points. However, my one counter to your argument in this particular case is that I'm not talking about watching quick three-second clips. I have watched the games and watch the plays live... Most fielding analysis is based on the same technique, quite frankly, just supposedly objectified. For example John Dewan's data for his Fielding Bible comes from analysts who watch every play throughout an entire season.
I'm not saying fielding statistics aren't invalid... They are usually accurate and are much better than anything that came before. I'm just saying they are imperfect, and I think the statistical depiction of McLouth as a terrible fielder is one example of that.
Thanks for commenting.
about 1 month ago
Andrew-
Well written article...I think McLouth's Gold Glove seems to be the most hotly contested of the bunch, and the majority of that, I think, comes from the lack of star power associated with his name.
I don't care who you are, if you only make one error in 386 total chances...That's good in my book!
I think all to often Gold Gloves go to familiar names and are somewhat of a "Grandfathered-in" award.
I'm happy a new face got this honor, and I hope he proves people wrong with another stellar defensive year.
about 1 month ago
I can remember watching McLouth be a thorn in Houston's side this season but mostly while at the plate. He did seem to make the plays he should have made in the outfield however. I would have liked to have seen someone else recieve the award personaly, although McLouth does deserve some accolade for his ability at the plate.
about 1 month ago
Btw, how many gold gloves does Jeter have? heheh.
about 1 month ago
I my self think that the stats are pretty close. You see errors being changed to hits and hits changed to errors all the time. That to me means that the stats are pretty close. And as for a player taking a late jump on the ball. If he does take a late jump and makes the ajustment and makes the play than that is suppose to be a good thing. It means he can make a mistake and still have a chance to make the play. In short i believe if the stats say he deserves the award than i feel that he did. As for calling him a above average corner outfielder but below average centerfielder i think you are wrong. After all 1 error all season isn't below average. Don't mistake me for a McLouth fan. I am a Cards fan. I just think you should give gredit were credit is do. And i give McLouth the credit he is do.
about 1 month ago
I'm just disappointed Andruw Jones didn't win it this year
write a new comment