The biggest football-related storyline with the game this Saturday has to do with the quality of the South Carolina’s defense. Specifically, it is statistically the best Florida has played so far. Ellis Johnson has made a big difference, they’ve got a 4-2-5 scheme, and so on and so forth.
Not so fast my friends, many Florida fans have said. Their response is that of course South Carolina has better stats than the teams UF has faced so far. The reason? They haven’t played the Gators yet, so their numbers haven’t been diminished by a Florida offensive outburst yet.
Well, let’s examine that one for a second:
| Team | Yds/Game | Points/Game | Yds/Game net UF | Pts/Game net UF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 303.44 | 24.2 | 282.00 | 20.9 |
| Kentucky | 324.50 | 20.1 | 311.00 | 15.3 |
| Georgia | 308.90 | 24.9 | 301.78 | 22.2 |
| Vanderbilt | 334.33 | 19.3 | 323.37 | 16.5 |
| South Carolina | 256.50 | 15.6 | ??? | ??? |
As you can see, if you take away the Florida game from these opponents then no one is doing as well as the Gamecocks at total defense. Kentucky would be slightly better at scoring defense than South Carolina without the 63-point shelling the Gators delivered to them in Gainesville. Vanderbilt is right there with them without the 42 the Gators just scored in Nashville.
So South Carolina is clearly the best team at total defense of those Florida has faced in its post-Ole Miss reign of terror. They’re about 30 yards a game stingier than LSU (net Florida) is. The Gamecocks are about five points a game better than LSU (net Florida) and almost a touchdown a game better than Georgia (net Florida). How much does that really matter though when Florida hasn’t won by fewer than 28 points against any of them?
UF has been making pretty good defenses look bad lately. No one has been able to get pressure on Tim Tebow as Miami and Ole Miss did, and Florida has been doing a better job of spreading the ball around to all of its playmakers. In addition, the Gators have become more of a power offensive team instead of spreading it out and tossing it to the edges. Opposing coaches have told that to EPSN’s Chris Fowler, and Urban Meyer confirmed that it’s true.
The catch is that South Carolina’s defense is pretty powerful too. Meyer has mentioned that as a concern: “Their linebackers…270 (pounds), 260. Then they have that 300 pound inside guy. This is the most difficult week we’ve had getting ready.” Those guys he mentioned are linebackers Eric Norwood and Jasper Brinkley along with DT Nathan Pepper, if you’re counting along at home.
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Norwood, for his part, has said that Florida won’t get to 40 points on Saturday. He’s hoping the game goes a lot like his first contest with the Gators, when Florida got a mere 17 points, as opposed to last year when Tebow accounted for seven (!) touchdowns on the way to 51 team points. Of course, he also says it will be “a different story” in that the Gators won’t win.
As a reminder, this is the end of the story that Norwood wants to make different.
He was doing so well, but then he said he will get a sack and it “definitely [is] going to hurt” Tebow. Last season Geno Hayes made a similar promise about taking Tebow down, and Tim led the way to a 45-12 win. Earlier this year Tennessee’s Demonte Bolden trash talked Tebow, and the Gators scored on six of their seven drives (that didn’t involve running out the clock at the end) to win comfortably 30-6. It’s one thing to think it, it’s another to say it.
So yes, South Carolina has a great defense, but don’t forget, so does Florida.
| Team | Total Defense | Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | 286.22 | 11.9 |
| South Carolina | 256.50 | 15.6 |
These Gator guys can stop an offense too. Though the Gamecocks hold a lead in total defense, Florida holds a lead in scoring defense by over a field goal. I think in this series, we all know what a difference a field goal can make.
One more time for the folks in the back.
It should go without saying that Florida’s offensive numbers are better than South Carolina’s. SC is averaging 24 points a game, and the Gators’ lowest point total for the whole season is 26. The Gamecocks lost to Vanderbilt, Georgia, and LSU and scored 17, 7, and 17 points in the process. Florida defeated those teams and scored 42, 49, and 51 points in the process.
So you can see pretty clearly why I am having a hard time making a case for a South Carolina upset. The amount of effort the Gamecocks must make in order to win is pretty large. If each team holds the other to half their normal offensive output, the Gators win 24-12. If the Gamecocks hold Florida to its lowest offensive output of the year, they’ll still need to overachieve their scoring average by a field goal to win against a defense that has given up more than 14 points twice and more than 21 points once.
South Carolina will have to get turnovers like Ole Miss did to win, and here’s why. Florida will probably intercept a pass or two, since Miami is the only team not to throw one to the orange and blue this year, and Gamecock quarterbacks have yet to go a full game without an interception all year. Florida will probably get a big special teams play or three. Plus, Florida’s offense will probably score several touchdowns.
The Gamecocks must force turnovers to give its ugly offense short fields and good opportunities. They must do their best to minimize giveaways. They will probably try to shorten the game and keep the Gator offense off the field, but be warned: Tennessee attempted that same thing but they got down and ended up not having enough time to mount a comeback in the end.
Your guess is as good as mine as to whether Florida can cover the 21-point spread. A 38-14 score would do it, and it is plausible with the way the Gators have often pulled away late in games.
Excluding points off turnovers, no one has scored more than 21 on Florida all season. Even then, Ole Miss needed a couple of staggering defensive breakdowns to get 14 of those. If the Gator offense continues to take care of the ball as it has all season and the defense doesn’t give up huge plays as it has generally avoided all season, then there’s no way Florida loses.
The Gators will not be napping. It’s not a 12:30 Raycom game. Florida is in the thick of the national title race. Meyer is raving about the chemistry and professionalism of the team at every opportunity. Oh yeah, and that former coach whose name is up in the stadium twice is coming to town too.
It probably won’t be pretty, but I expect Florida to get a businesslike win.
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about 1 month ago
South Carolina's biggest problem may be finding enough "live bodies" to field a defensive secondary. Starting safety Chris Culliver is out for the first half after being ejected for fighting in the Arkansas game. Starting safety Akeem Auguste has a hamstring and hasn't practiced all week (probable to play, but not 100%). Safety Mark Barnes is scheduled for surgery today (and is expected to transfer out of Spurrier's program thereafter... doubtful to make the trip to G'ville). CB Stoney Jackson will start at safety (has a little playing time there, but not lately), no word on who will start at Jackson's CB spot.
Looks like DC Ellis Johnson will be earning his paycheck this week. Unless Spurrier is running some sort of elaborate ruse (wouldn't put it past the old fox), South Carolina could be blown out of this one early. With this devastating player loss, I think we'll see another 30+ margin for the Gators. Too bad (in a way)... I was looking forward to seeing Johnson's new "Spur" D in full force.
about 1 month ago
Stoney Woodson will be getting the start, as Stoney Jackson is not a player on the Gamecock roster. The Gamecocks will be fine back there; injuries are part of the game. Emmanuel Cook and Captain Munnerlyn are two of the best in the league, and Woodson has some major confidence after last game's performance.
Much has been made of the rain projected for this Saturday. I don't think it will affect much; in fact, I think it helps FL. Carolina would have to play a perfect game to win, and the Garcia/Smelley combo simply isn't capable, especially with a weak o-line facing a very fast Gator d-line.
With no even presence of a running game, Carolina will have to go to the air, eventually throwing a pick or two or three and giving FL the short field too many times. From there, Meyer's favorite word, "momentum," will take over.
It would be sweet to see Spurrier have another battle in the Swamp, but it just doesn't seem to add up.
from about 1 month ago
Yeah, both teams (especially Florida) practice in the rain enough that I don't think weather will be a huge factor.
from about 1 month ago
"The Gamecocks will be fine back there..."
We'll see, Tim. I think you'll be stretched far too thin in the secondary to cope with the slew of playmakers the Gators have waiting for ya. Expect to see Auguste's hamstring get tested early and often.
The only possible weakness I see for the Gators, would be an attempt by Mullen to bolster Tebow's Heisman stats with 40 or 50 percent of the rushing carries for Tim... your monster linebackers and D-line should smack that crap down real quick.
about 1 month ago
You can't project this game based on numbers. It just will not unfold the same way as the gators last 4 or 5 opponents and it will not unfold the same way as the gamecocks last 4 or 5 opponents. It will be quirky and hard fought. Some incredible and controversial plays will happen. One of these teams will have a bitter loss coming. Also I just can't see a blowout.
from about 1 month ago
The first table illustrates how Florida's performance over the last four games has affected the numbers of the opponents. If only numbers told the story, then there's no way the Gators would have run up over 42 points on any of those teams.
What the numbers do is tell you a story of what the teams are if you smooth out some of the peaks and valleys into a general trend. The trend says that both teams in this game field terrific defenses, but only one team fields a terrific offense.
Things don't go perfectly smooth in every game though. Those peaks and valleys do occur. The trend also helps tell you who needs more peaks than the other to win, and clearly South Carolina is that team in this game. That's why I made the point about turnovers.
If the Gators don't turn it over, they won't lose. Period.
about 1 month ago
It doesn't matter what will happen if they don't turn the ball over because they will turn the ball over. I'm not trying to put down the Gators I just don't think any past performance will be an indication of what will happen Saturday. The Gators have more talent but there is no way I would ever concede that Urban Meyer coaches better football than Steve Spurrier.
from about 1 month ago
How do you define that? Are you looking at the overall trend, or at specific games? What is your criteria for coaching good football, and how does Spurrier always win out over Meyer?
from about 1 month ago
I'll tell you. Finishing 7-5 with a 5-3 sec record with Lou Holtz' recruits was a better coaching job than Urban Meyer going 9-4 at Florida with players that were recruited to play at Florida. He can 'coach up' talent better than Meyer. I just think all of the 2008 trends you refer to will be rendered meaningless when the head ball coach gets this group to play above what they have shown thus far.
from about 1 month ago
I will agree with you that Spurrier did a better coaching job overall than Meyer did in 2005. Spurrier was also a 12-year veteran of the conference as opposed to a guy who had never coached in a major conference before, so the discrepancy is not surprising.
What about in the years since? Time did not stop at the end of 2005 and Meyer has become a better coach in the intervening years. What about last year, for instance, when Spurrier went from 6-1 to 6-6 and missed a bowl as a result?
I'm not saying you're flat-out wrong; Spurrier is clearly a hall of fame coach while the book on Meyer is far from closed. But let's go ahead and say that Spurrier is a better coach than Meyer is right now. Meyer is clearly no slouch, so the gap can't be that big. Is the small gap in coaching really big enough to overcome the large gap (especially on offense) in talent?
And how can you be so sure that Florida will turn it over? Tebow has only 2 INTs on the season. Outside of the Ole Miss debacle, Florida has lost only two fumbles and one was a result of the terrible call on what should have been a Percy Harvin touchdown last week.
from about 1 month ago
Spurrier is a Champion, no doubt about it. So is Meyer. If Meyer can bring home the National Championship this season, then he is in an elite group indeed. He may have as good a shot next season as this season (some think an even better shot). And its not just x's and o's. He is as good a recruiter as anyone alive (remember when all the pundits screamed that Meyer would never be able to recruit in Florida against FSU, Miami and the rest of the SEC?).
Meyer has his strong points and so does Spurrier, but any way you look at it they will both go down in the books as great coaches.
about 1 month ago
It's sort of funny to see a Gator arguing against Spurrier, even if it's lightly. Just another reason to love college football.
It's just so hard to compare FL and SC. The two programs are so far from each other it's ridiculous. If Meyer wins another NC this year, then there is no denying he is at the top of the coaching world. 2 titles in 4 years for a guy so new to the SEC would be ridiculous.
Ironically, though, and as everybody knows, Meyer's success at FL was so fast due to Spurrier's achievements there. It's flat out easier to bring a kid to Gainesville than Columbia. The state has more talent, the school has more history, etc. etc. etc.
Recruiting is hands down an advantage to Meyer, although Carolina is doing a very good job right now in that area.
If SOS can get Carolina to 10 wins before he retires, then I would seriously call the guy a coaching genius. Who knows, he might just pave the way for another coach to build on his success at SC.
Good comments, gentlemen.
from about 1 month ago
It would be an interesting thought experiment to posit whether Meyer could build Florida in the same manner that Spurrier did had Florida has more Galen Halls and Charley Pells through the '90s instead of Spurrier. But that's another discussion for another time.
I was mainly trying to make sure that Michael had something concrete backing up his assertion and wasn't just throwing stuff out there to be contrary. I would have a hard time saying for sure that Spurrier's coaching job at Carolina so far is as good as it was in Gainesville, with last season's collapse being the main reason why. A couple of his Gator teams teetered on an edge, but none ever fell off.
If he had some real good running backs, this year's team might have been a 10-game winner with the way the defense has played. I mean, if you put an Errict Rhett or Elijah Williams on that team, much less a Fred Taylor or Earnest Graham, they'd have likely had the ability to grind out a couple close wins instead of taking close losses. They're really not that far at all.
about 1 month ago
You don't seem to realize how good this South Carolina defense is or how well it matches up with your Florida offense. We have some bangers and I mean guys that can just lay you flat on your back no matter if youre a jockey playing running back or a tight end playing quarterback. And if you think Tebow is just going to run through Eric Norwood, or Norwood is just going to bounce off of 15 you just havent been watching Carolina play football. We have two HUGE linebackers in the middle in Jasper Brinkley and Eric Norwood, both of which top 255 lbs. So we'll go ahead and say the middle of the field is shut down as far as running the ball goes. Then you have Stoney Woodson (four INTs this year), Captain Munnerlyn (future 1st-2nd round draft pick), Emanuel Cook (leads the team in tackles), Darian Stewart (some huge forced fumbles this year) that can all force turnovers. Throw in another starting corner in Carlos Thomas who is tied with the aforementioned Woodson for active career lead in interceptions.
Then you have the defensive line that is just chock-full of big, fast SEC defensive lineman. Cliff Matthews, Travian Robertson, and Clifton Geathers are all future All-SEC picks while redshirt senior Jordin Lindsey should have a big game coming off of the performance he had against Arkansas. Throw in one of the best DTs in the SEC in Ladi Ajiboye and other very capable middle-stuffers such as Johnathan Williams and Nathan Pepper and you find yourself a brick wall to try and run against.
Everyone on this defense can run. Everyone can cover. And everyone can hit. Hard.
I see the Carolina defense forcing at least three turnovers in this game. Whether we win or not is all up to Carolina's OLine, whether they can get the running game going, and we got to play a great game of special teams.
I think you're going to be surprised by our defense if nothing else on Saturday. I can't wait to read the article on Sunday. :) Go Gamecocks.
from about 1 month ago
How did last-place Arkansas score three TD's against this Gamecock D last week?
from about 1 month ago
I am well aware of South Carolina's defense; I broke down how it was able to slow down all of Georgia's skill players back in September: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/57615-how-south-carolinas-defense-was-able-to-slow-georgias-offense
Right now Florida's offensive line is playing better than it ever has under Urban Meyer. I have watch TE Aaron Hernandez grow considerably in his blocking ability all season long. Florida has a few running backs who aren't bad at blocking either, most notably Kestahn Moore.
It will be very physical on both sides of the ball when the Gators are on offense. And as great as South Carolina is on defense, Florida ain't exactly bringing a knife to a gunfight here.
from about 1 month ago
Rob - I am curious to get your thoughts on the Gator offense. Not exactly the pass happy finess offense that everyone paints pictures of eh? Many of those long runs were right up the gut.
You sound like a guy after my own heart - someone with a penchant for good defense and SC was laying the wood out there... you could practically hear the hits through the speakers. I am also curious to get your thoughts on the Gator D. They are the opportunistic eh?
I wish your boys would have brought their A game....
about 1 month ago
I wrote about this as well, but this game--in my opinion--will not be settled between the Carolina defense and Gator offense. Just the opposite.
Gators have been able to take advantage of turnovers and field position creating the short field way too much.
Too expect Garcia/Smelley to go error free, in the Swamp, with no running game, and in pouring rain is not smart. Nobody can argue with the defense; it's that the offense will put them in too many bad spots. Once the Gators go up two scores, the Gamecock offense won't be able to catch up.
from about 1 month ago
Tim's prophetic :)
from about 1 month ago
Either that or I watch a lot of Carolina football :-)
from about 1 month ago
I think Stoney Jackson* could have started at safety without much effect on the final score.
*80's sitcom actor and current character actor.
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