One thing is for sure...the Stanford Cardinal will not sneak up on SC this year. Last year's monumental upset by Stanford occurred in a perfect storm: unmotivated Trojans, QB breaks finger, and five turnovers. Will that (or anything like it) happen again? I highly doubt it.
Stanford, at 5-5, is a decent team. They are undefeated at home and rely on a strong running game. But the question is...will they be able to run against a hot SC defense? The Trojan offense may also get a break this week against a Cardinal secondary that gives up a ton of yards.
Let's break it down.
Stanford
Offense
When you talk about Stanford, you start with the running game. Running back Toby Gerhart has been a horse this season, rushing for 932 yards on 5.5 ypc and 13 touchdowns. RB Anthony Kimble is also solid and has run for 650+ yards on six ypc. Center Alex Fletcher leads the Cardinal offensive line that has opened holes for this capable duo.
QB Tavita Pritchard, however, has not been real productive. He's averaging only 121 yards through the air and thrown nine INTs vs. nine TDs...ranking him dead last in the Pac-10. WRs Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin lead the receiving corps, combining for 52 receptions and four TDs.
The Cardinal offense, however, has been extremely efficient in the red zone this season, scoring 95 percent of the time (27 TDs and six FGs in 35 opportunities inside the opponent's 20-yard line).
- B/R Ticket Guide
Defense
The Stanford defense has been up and down this season. Ranking eighth in the Pac-10 in total defense, the Cardinal have been especially bad against the pass, giving up about 250 yards per game.
However, the LB unit of Stanford's 3-4 defensive scheme is strong, led by Bo McNally and Pat Maynor. DE Tom Keiser leads the defensive line unit with six sacks, on a defense that leads the Pac-10 in total sacks with 30.
Special Teams
Freshman punter David Green is doing a nice job, averaging 40 yards per punt, and kicker Aaron Zagory has connected on 12 of 14 FGs this year. WR Doug Baldwin doubles as the punt returner, and Jeremy Stewart is the primary kick returner, averaging 23 yards per kickoff.
USC
Offense
A Trojan offense searching for a rhythm could find it versus a Cardinal defense that gives up yards and points (about 25 per game). QB Mark Sanchez could have a big game against a porous Stanford secondary, but he must get rid of the ball quickly to avoid sacks from the effective Cardinal rush.
The Trojan RBs could also find ample running room in the "second level" if they can get past the initial five Stanford defenders on the line of scrimmage, and there's no doubt that SC's WRs will have favorable matchups against the Cardinal CBs. Look for FB Stanley Havili and TE Anthony McCoy to see opportunities in the passing game as quick outlets for Sanchez.
Defense
The Trojan defense will seek to set the tone by stopping a Cardinal rushing attack that averages 207 yards per game. MLB Rey Maualuga and Company will have to switch gears, however, after facing the speedy RBs of the CAL Bears. They must now prepare for bruising Cardinal RBs Gerhart and Kimble, who can move the pile.
The Trojan defensive tackle rotation (Fili Moala, Christian Topou, and Jurrell Casey) will play a huge role in stopping the Stanford running game by holding their ground up the middle.
Special Teams
Can SC's return game finally make a big impact by taking one "to da house"? It hasn't happened thus far, and perhaps punt returner Stafon Johnson should just secure the ball after dropping one in the previous game.
SC's kickoff returners Ronald Johnson and C.J. Gable just don't get any opportunities, as opponents don't score enough to even kick the ball off to them. That probably won't change in this game.
Kicker David Buehler has been good on FGs and spectacular on kickoff touchbacks (35 so far this season). But punter Greg Woidneck's punting average is not good (36 yards net), although he has been hitting a few inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Prediction
USC - 33
Stanford - 10
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about 1 month ago
Nice write up. One thing though... Stanford's running back is out for this game, injury and playing USC's defense probably wouldn't help heal him. I like your prediction, I say 37-7.
about 1 month ago
Thanks Jonny.
Cardinal running back Toby Gerhart is going to give it go with his sore hamstring and play against SC. It bears watching to see how he runs, and whether or not he'll be effective.
SC can't relax, though, if Gerhart can't finish the game. Not only is the other running back Kimble pretty good, but the Trojans just need to put the hammer down on the Cardinal running game no matter who's carrying the rock.
about 1 month ago
I think that you're giving the Cardinal a far better chance than they deserve. The fact that they beat the Trojans on the road last year is just all the more reason that the Trojans' blood will be coursing in their veins to get the game started. The defense will be punishing from the gate, and look for a rejuvenated spirit in the down lineman with SC's stout LB's shoring up the holes.
It's the quick guys who can run up the middle and get into and through the gaps quickly that bother the Trojans. Smaller, strong guys with a killer instinct who can handle running into the baddest LB's in the country, without being scared.
Stanford doesn't have anyone who fits that bill.
They also don't have anything else on offense to challenge SC. If you are one-dimensional, you're screwed.
As for the Cardinal defense, well, they're not going to be able to slow down the quick strike Trojans, or the slow run-it-up-the-gut and tire you out Stafon Johnson / C.J. Gable running game (depending on which offense shows up).
I don't think that the Cardinal is going to get past 10 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they got held to a field goal.
USC 35, Stanford 10
about 1 month ago
Judging by our predictions, I think we all expect the same thing, Greg.
A game totally controlled by the Trojans.
On paper, its easy to see that the Cardinal are limited offensively and defensively, and whatever strengths they have play right into SC's strengths.
But the game is not played on paper, as we know. Its about how these teams play today.
Similar to other games, I think SC needs to do three things vs. Stanford:
1) On defense, stop the run and get the Cardinal off the field on 3rd downs
2) On offense, take what the Cardinal defense gives - don't force things
3) On offense, don't commit turnovers
SC doesn't need to come out over-hyped due to last year's debacle. The Trojans shouldn't try to do too much by playing for revenge, therefore leading to mistakes and sloppy football.
This is a business trip for SC . . . come out with intensity execute individual responsibilities, trust your teammates, and play Trojan football.
If they do those things, the final score of the game will be something similar to what we've all posted.
about 1 month ago
Toby Gerhart is a stud- best running back in the the Pac-10!
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