On afternoon of Free Agency, the New York Yankees completed a trade to replace Jason Giambi, acquiring Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for Wilson Betemit (one of my favorite players), and Minor League pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.
Upon first impression, Brian Cashman looks like a genius and Kenny Williams looks like a goat. If you recall, Williams traded for Swisher just under a year ago. At this point, it appears obvious that Williams paid a lot more then he received for the slugger.
Let's look at what Williams received for Swisher first.
Wilson Betemit has power, nobody would argue that. He is still young enough to be seen as a player with potential. What he doesn't have are greater flaws then what he does possess. Betemit is poor at taking walks and great at striking out, not an excellent combination to have.
Betemit is also a capable fielder at essentially any position, save catcher. While he is stretched at places, he can certainly field them on at least a temporary basis.
As an arbitration eligible player, Betemit should see a modest increase from his 2008 salary of a little over $1.1M. What this part of the trade boils down to is Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney for a utility infielder.
While Betemit's still youthful enough to provide something offensively, he will have to beat out Josh Fields, or one of Chris Getz and Jayson Nix. Not an impossible feat, but one that is doubtful to provide anything beneficial.
The Yankees are also sending two pitching prospects, neither scoring very high on anyone's radar, and lacking the youth of true high upside players. However, both have scouting projectability to be watched for the next year or two.
The eldest prospect being Jeff Marquez, a 24-year-old pitcher that hasn't shown anything special throughout his professional career. Being a groundball pitcher and having an adequate walk rate, Marquez could fill an end of the rotation role.
However, Marquez was relatively homer prone in Triple-A this season. Possibly this was due to poor fortune, or maybe Marquez was at a level where his mistakes would go over the fences.
Entering last year, Minor League Balls' John Sickels rated Marquez as the 14th best prospect in a weak Yankees system. He was given a C+ grade, which I imagine had much to do with his age, then performance.
Baseball America had Marquez rated as the organizations number seven prospect. While a more promising ranking, BA asserts that there is not much outside of the top 5 in this organization, although the Yankees were taking steps.
In consideration of this, Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein placed Marquez as a just-missed player. While there are players that have gone under the radar, and largely ignored as prospects onto bigger and better things, it's tough to see that happening with Marquez.
22 year old Jhonny Nunez, the one-time Washington Nationals prospect, rounds out the players received from the Yankees. Nunez was received from the Nationals for glove-first short stop Alberto Gonzalez. In what was a nice trade at the time for the Yankees, is now much more attractive.
Nunez struggled in high A ball with the Nationals, although he pitched better then his 5.22 ERA would lead one to believe. Once Nunez moved to Double-A, fly balls began to stay in the park, and Nunez's strong strikeout and adequate walk numbers remained.
One could propose the idea that it was Nunez's conversion to reliever which had him take a major step this season. Personally, I'd like to see him in the rotation at Double-A to start the 2009 season. If it is a matter of getting weaker as the game wears on, then a move to the bullpen won't be the worst thing.
I find it interesting that despite being in a weak Nationals system, only Sickels had Nunez listed on his top prospects list. Albeit, Nunez was fairly low on his radar, ranking as a C+ prospect and No. 18 out of 20. It wouldn't surprise me to see Nunez be bumped up everyone's list this year, although cracking the top 10 may still be a stretch.
Sending a utility infielder, an at best No. 4 or 5 starter, and a likely Major League reliever in exchange for a hitter of Nick Swisher's talent is what could be referred to as a bargain, a steal, an improper exchange of valuables.
Swisher will be 28 years old as of Opening Day and entering the prime of what has already been a nice career. While 2008 was certainly a disappointment for Swish, it also marked the worst season of his career, one with uncharacteristically low batted-ball figures.
It can be expected that Swisher will rebound in 2009 and hit at least to the levels of his career average (.800+ OPS).
At an average of close to $8M a year for the next four seasons, Swisher is an absolute bargain. One hot season and the Yankees could certainly flip him for some high level prospects. However, if the Yankees choose to hold onto Swisher through the duration of his career-and the duration of his prime years-the annual savings will allow them to overspend in other areas, even more so than they already do.
As if Swisher was not enough, Cashman had Williams throw-in Kanekoa Texeira. In terms of "throw-ins" go, this is as good as it gets. In fact, Texeira has as good of a chance at being a quality Major League contributor as either Marquez and Nunez.
Armed with an arsenal of fastball, change-up, and what was considered the best slider in the White Sox organization, Texeira is a reliever that has had success at every level of the minors since being drafted in the 22nd round of the 2006 draft. Texeira's performance to date shows that he very well could be ready for the Majors immediately.
While it is unlikely that he starts the 2009 season on the big-league club, an eventual call-up is not out of the question. It also seems reasonable to expect Yankees fans to deem him the heir to Mariano Rivera. Unjustified as it may be the Yankees swiped a very good prospect here.
This is a very confusing trade and one that certainly has to be given to the Yankees. The White Sox are not a small-market club, so it isn't as if they could utilize the salary flexibility and this was more of a cash dump. In fact, the ChiSox may have been better off eating some of Swisher's salary and then shopping him.
Whatever the reason, there is little doubt that the White Sox took a major step back from the day before they acquired Nick Swisher to today. They sent the A's three very highly coveted youngsters and swapped that product for three end of the roster players.
Worse yet, while Kenny Williams has a "surplus" today, this is the last year of Jim Thome's contract. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are not getting any younger. Josh Fields isn't going to get any better repeating Triple-A for the forth season. REGRET, is soon to be spelt S-W-I-S-H-E-R in the South Side of Chicago.
For the winner of this deal, it appears unlikely they will go after Mark Teixeira, or any other top hitter via free agency this off-season. While Teixeira would be an obvious upgrade over Swisher, the teams rumored to be interested in the first basemen should drive up his price making him less valuable.
That being said, the Yankees can concentrate on acquiring pitching and spending like, well, like the Yankees.
I will discuss the Cubs-Marlins trade tomorrow.
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about 1 month ago
I truly believe that Yankee success for 2009 must include CC and Tex, and another high end pitcher. The Yanks can sign these players and not pass last years payroll. Good article Brandon.
from about 1 month ago
I think you will be surprised at how easily Swisher replaces Giambi. How easily a full season of Matsui replaces Abreu. And just how much the Yankees missed Posada. Not only that, but a return to form will go a long way to making the 2009 Yankees attack be similarly as strong as the 2008 model.
That said, a starting pitcher and reliever would definitely be things that would help this team. I don't believe CC to be the answer. While he would certainly be the best free agent pitcher for the 2009 season, locking up any arm for that long is never a good idea. The Yanks also have two pitchers with potential ace in Joba and Phil.
from about 1 month ago
There is no doubt that Joba will be are ace real soon, and I think that Phil has the potential
to also be a force to be wreck-en with in Baseball. Along with the ace we already have Wang,
are rotation is secured for the next 7 years. But what about next year ? Its very important for us to win this upcoming year. There is allot on the line , and there are a lot of people that need to be shut up.
90 million extra dollars this year, lets use it.
about 1 month ago
The Yankees are a bad team that people are laughing at. What's the difference who they get? All they will do is lose and get mocked by all.
from about 1 month ago
People laugh at the Yankees?
A team with 89 wins in baseballs most difficult division is a 'loser' who deserves to get mocked?
News to me.
about 1 month ago
Brandon, don't pay any attention to this guy/girl. He spews hate then cries like a baby when confronted.
about 1 month ago
Brandon, I agree with you, I mean Nick Swisher has power but struggles with his batting average, never had a decent season and he strikes a lot, Wilson Betemit is way better.
about 1 month ago
Betemit better? Swisher is proven in this league! he had a bad year, Swisher gives the yankees a lot of options now. But to say he is way better is just wrong!!!
about 1 month ago
I was just excited as you were last year when the White Sox acquired Swisher. The problem he just isn't really all that good. Yes he takes walks but only because he gets up there and takes the first four or five pitches he see. From about August 1st and on last year the guy was absolutely worthless at the plate. If I had a dime or everytime he took a called third strike in a clutch situation I would be a richer man. He has one good season in 2006, thats all. Betimet's versatility makes him valueable for the Sox who will be young at both second and third, he is a good insurance policy if the youngsters struggle. Yes the Sox gave up two young pitchers for Swisher but you need to look at the trades independently of each other. Besides Gio Gonzales was just traded for 4th time in as many years. Swisher was benched by mid September, so the Yankees traded a utility player for a guy who was going to ride the pine for the Sox anyway.
from about 1 month ago
Swisher is a very good hitter. While he won't surprise anyone with a high batting average, he makes up with it owning an above league average on base percentage. OBP being the most important offensive skill set.
I think you are unfairly judging Swisher based on one season. Because he is still in his prime, and had mediocre batted ball data, it is obvious that a bounce-back season will occur.
All that aside, Betemit is a fine player, but he isn't going to be better for the Sox then Swisher will be for the Yanks. Despite your best intentions, the Sox swapped three very solid prospects for what is essentially a year of Swisher and some spare parts. That isn't how you build a winner.
about 1 month ago
In all fairness they did make the playoffs, and have won more postseason games, 12, then the yankees have since their meltdown in Boston in 2004. Only time will tell with Swisher though, but there was some thinking that the added pressure of playing for the Sox affected him. I would hate to see what NYC might to do the guy.
from about 1 month ago
The problem is, Swisher did not PERFORM worse. His strikeout rate was marginally worse, but everything else was essentially par the course for him. The BIG factor was that Swisher's batted ball data (not influenced by 'pressure') was substantially worse and at a rate that is unsustainable for him.
about 1 month ago
Brandon, you believe .216 BA is a "very good hitter?" I don't. Plus, when he gets on base he can't steal. This tells me he is slow afoot and certainly not a Jason Giambi in power ratings. Sure, it's time for Giambi to go to greener pastures in free agency, but Swisher's most likely homerun tally will be about 20 to 24 per year and you could get a kid up from the minors for an eighth--heck a 16th--of his $8 million a year. I am just not sold on Swisher. He isn't about to have a banner year. If he was, why didn't he have one with Chicago? He's a second tier player at best, maybe third-tier. He is another Ritchy Sexton that Cashman picked up--a man who was supposed to hit well against lefties, but if he had been so good they wouldn't need a first baseman. I am very disappointed at Cashman on this one. I would move a near .300 hitter Bobby Abreu over to first, or Jorge Posada who hit well above .300s before I would deal for a Swisher.
Don White
http://YankeesWizard.blogspot.com
from about 1 month ago
Don,
Are you going to draw a conclusion on a player based on one season? Does that mean Gustavo Chacin is still a good pitcher?
As a hitter with a .350 on base percentage, well above average. Couple that with a .210 ISO (again, WELL above league average), and you have a hitter that is 'very good'.
As for speed, you are right, he doesn't steal bases. But that doesn't mean he is slow afoot. A guy who can, and does play center field can NEVER be termed as 'slow afoot'.
Is he Jason Giambi? No way. But he's a hitter entering his prime. He is durable and CHEAP!
As for a comparable player from the minors, I highly doubt that. How many major league ready players do the Yankees have that can play all three outfield spots and first base? None? That sounds about right.
How many players do they have that can easily put up an 800 OPS? None?
Why are you so obsessed with batting average? Haven't we all gotten over the fact that a players batting average shows little to nothing about the type of hitter they are?
Yes, Abreu would be a better single season option then Swisher, but that's because he puts up nearly a .400 OBP. However, Abreu will cost twice as much, and you would have to lock up a guy outside of his prime for years where you are simply rolling the dice.
Don, maybe take some time to understand baseball before you start writing about it.
about 1 month ago
It wasn't Swisher first bad season. If you look at his numbers from the last three years the trend is bad if you are a Yankee fan. After his 2006 35 HR breakout season both his power numbers and his average, and his .OBP have all dropped the past two years. The numbers just don't set up for a breakut season. Let's not beat dead horse here, even if it is only batting .216. You would have a tough time finding a fan in Oakland or Chicago who would ever want Nick Swisher up with the game on the line. Get ready for pop ups and called third strikes. One thing that hasn't been mentioned however is Swisher's above average defense. He has great range at first and is an above average corner outfielder with a strong and accurate arm. He just isn't the next Giambi.
from about 1 month ago
Sam,
False. Swisher's OBP actually improved the season after his 35 home run outburst. It rose from .372 to .381. That's about 40 or 50 points higher then league average. Putting that into context, a league average batting average is .260. 40 or 50 points higher would be .300.
Let's take that a step further. If Swisher was a .300 hitter with a .330 OBP would you say that he is a 'very good hitter'? Would you say that fans in Oakland and Chicago want him up with the game on the line?
The fact is, a hitter with a .370 or .380 or even .350 on base percentage is VASTLY superior to a hitter with a .330 on base percentage. Multiple studies have been performed which prove that on base percentage, not batting average, not slugging average, but on base percentage, is directly related to winning games.
With that understood. Swisher, and his +30-50 above league average OBP, is a VERY GOOD HITTER.
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