5 Fantasy Football Mistakes Every Draft Is Bound to Produce
Fantasy Football season is coming quickly. Some leagues have already had their drafts or are drafting soon. Every year, there are indefensible mistakes made by owners who haven't done their research, that's where you have a chance to capitalize.
Here are five common mistakes that are bound to happen in fantasy leagues.
5. Basing Rankings Primarily off Last Season
I believe there are two perfect examples of this for this season. Although Peyton Hillis and Brandon Lloyd are good players who had great years last season, don't expect them to repeat their performance this season.
Peyton Hillis is talented, but he's an injury prone back in a young offense. It's hard to imagine him repeating his success. Some people think the hate has gone too far now that he's being drafted in the third round, but I won't own him on any teams this year.
Brandon Lloyd led all receivers in fantasy points last year, but this year, things are going to be different. John Fox replaced Josh McDaniels as head coach, which means more running and less deep jump balls for Lloyd. I don't like his chances this season.
Every year, different players come out of the woodwork and have excellent seasons, but few of them repeat. Draft based on consistency and let someone else end up with Lloyd and Hillis.
4. Taking Running Backs in the First Two Rounds
The old school of thought was a power running game would bring you a fantasy championship. Not anymore.
While running back is the most valuable position, it's probably also the most vulnerable. Once you get past the top tier of running backs, they all have issues. Whether it's another play maker in the backfield, injury concerns or a bad offensive line, many things can cripple a running back's fantasy value.
I'm not saying wide receivers or quarterbacks are sure things, but I would rather have my No. 2 or 3 receiver than the No. 10 running back. The top receiver is just a safer bet than the No. 7 running back in my book.
I have actually stuck to this strategy in my two drafts thus far, in one draft taking Roddy White and Calvin Johnson in the first two rounds, and Roddy White and Andre Johnson in the other.
I could have taken Mendenhall in the first two rounds of either of those drafts, but one look at his carry totals (including playoffs) helped me decide against the Steelers' stud, instead opting for receivers, who are a much better bet in my opinion.
If you feel like you need one stud running back, I can certainly understand that, but I would shy away from taking back to back rushers in the first two rounds.
3. Taking a Defense and Kicker Before the Last Two Rounds
If you're a huge Packers fan, and their team defense is available in the 14th round, I guess it's alright to pick them, but I certainly won't be taking them. It's almost impossible to predict the performance of a team defense and it's easy to pick up a new one and play the match-ups. Offenses are much easier to predict.
Kickers can't be taken before the last round. They are all the same. Running backs and wide receivers are much more valuable, any kicker can get you eight points. At least one or two people every year reach for a defense, don't be that guy. It's just not worth it.
2. Taking Quarterbacks Too Early
I understand the thought process behind wanting an elite quarterback, but far too often they are taken much higher than they should be. Besides Rodgers and Vick, I wouldn't take a quarterback in the first two rounds this year, in fact, I wouldn't even consider it.
There are too many high quality running backs and wide receivers to consider taking a quarterback. Outside of Rodgers and Vick, it's not worth grabbing an elite quarterback because drafting Romo, Shaub or even Big Ben three or four rounds later will probably be almost as good.
So now I have told you not to take two running backs, and not to take a QB. So here's what I do suggest, any of these combos are fine in my book: RB-WR, WR-RB, WR-WR, Rodgers-RB, Rodgers-WR. I think Vick is going too high, so I won't grab him.
Please don't be that guy that drafts Tom Brady at No. 15 with Hakeem Nicks and Calvin Johnson still on the board. Please.
1. Don't Draft Arian Foster over Adrian Peterson
I just had this happen to me this weekend and I think he will probably regret it. The question I ask is, "didn't we just do this whole thing last year!?" Everyone had such a hard time deciding between Peterson and Johnson. Peterson was consistent, but Johnson had a bigger year. Those who went with Johnson were frustrated all season with his inconsistent play.
I'm not saying Arian Foster can't once again be the No. 1 back in all of fantasy, but I am saying that Adrian Peterson is a better bet to put up big numbers once again. If I got the first pick in a fantasy football draft, I would take Peterson without hesitation.
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